random guy

The New Normal Could Be That Way for a While

Considering we're only one year out from "the abyss" I think it's a little premature to start whining about things not being back to "normal". It takes MULTIPLE YEARS to go from trough to peak. And we're just starting the process, so don't get frustrated so quickly.

It's Not Easy Being Bearish

"After all, being a bull is infinitely more profitable."

And hence, "even broken clocks are right twice a day."

How to Prepare for the Inevitable Correction

You prepare the same way that people were preparing for a correction when the S&P500 hit 800, 900 and 1000 -- foolheartedly.

The reality is, getting back up to 1050 (or more) *IS THE CORRECTION*.

Is the Market Correction Finally Here?

I also love this quote:

"signs of buyer fatigue appear to be emerging as signaled by the stock market’s lukewarm reception to recent good news (increases in house prices/sales, durable orders, and consumer confidence)"

Yet just in the last two weeks the the stark market surged 5% due to great economic news.

Is the Market Correction Finally Here?

Stock market being up 50% ***IS THE CORRECTION***. There was no rational reason to have S&P500 anywhere near 650.

The Market Bubble Is About to Pop

Heard this since mid-March.

U.S. Great Mancession Continues

My guess is it's due to a disproportionate hit in manufacturing and construction jobs vs. service industry.

Which Historical Period Does this Market Resemble?

This market is like no other in history largely because the participants and the manner of buying and selling are like no other in history. It's akin to comparing the acceleration of a new Ferrari and a Model T. Other than the fact that they're both automobiles, there's not much comparison.

ADP Payroll Report: Where Are Those Green Shoots?

Yeah, I can't see at all how we "turned a corner."

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Uh......

7% for Overnight Money? Someone Is in Trouble

The average high for the month prior to hitting 7 last year was 2.57%. The average high for the past two weeks 0.39%.

I think it's a pretty safe assumption this was a severe outlier and not part of a trend upward as last year.

The Undefinable, Unstoppable Bull Market of 2009

There has never been a "bear market rally" or a "dead cat bounce" of 36%. So let's just stop calling it such.

The question isn't why the market is rallying to this point. That one is easy to answer The question should be, why did it get so low in March? There was no justification for 670 and much of this rally is just a correction from that absurdly low level.

S&P 500 Financial Sector at Key Inflection Point

In other words, from this price point, it could go up or down. And if it goes up it goes up, and if it goes down it goes down.

Good stuff.

From Risk Revulsion and Panic Selling to Risk Appetite and Panic Buying. What's Going On?

Asset prices are still not even close to their pre-Lehman level, so it's not like there's been a complete reversal. Just because people can see now that the world isn't actually ending doesn't mean there's unhinged risk appetite.

Economy Watch: What if Stocks Were Priced in Gold?

You say, "If you look at a chart of inflation from 1978 to 1982, you'll notice a huge spike. If you look at a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial average during the same period, you'll see that stocks traded sideways in a fairly well-defined range over the same period."

But looking that DJIA chart, from the trough in 1978 to the peak in 1981, the DJIA gained 273 points for a 36.5% increase in under 3 years. That's hardly sideways trading (an IRR of nearly 17%, which outstrips the 10-15% inflation rate).

Asset Class Performance during the Bush Years

Why 12/12/2000?