moorer1's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/273302/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/152093-case-shiller-home-prices-rise-in-may-but-don-t-read-too-much-into-this?source=feed#comment-607275 607275
True...but I don't know if it's quite proper to compare the 20-city index with the individual city's index in this regard. And, in fact, in the run-up since Jan 2000, the _20-city index_ fell only one month during those 101 months.

Indeed, the seasonality has to be filtered out in order to understand the trend.

One clue as to where we're headed could be looking at the typical seasonal inflection points of summer and winter. If one examines the monthly change chart (the 1st derivative of the price curve) of the 20-city index, one can see that this curve had been making lower lows then lower highs since the winter of 2004(!). However, this trend has been broken this summer, i.e. the maximum monthly change for the summer of 2009 exceeds that of the summer of 2008. I think this does suggest that prices are, at least, trying to bottom.]]> Wed, 29 Jul 2009 18:31:18 -0400
True...but I don't know if it's quite proper to compare the 20-city index with the individual city's index in this regard. And, in fact, in the run-up since Jan 2000, the _20-city index_ fell only one month during those 101 months.

Indeed, the seasonality has to be filtered out in order to understand the trend.

One clue as to where we're headed could be looking at the typical seasonal inflection points of summer and winter. If one examines the monthly change chart (the 1st derivative of the price curve) of the 20-city index, one can see that this curve had been making lower lows then lower highs since the winter of 2004(!). However, this trend has been broken this summer, i.e. the maximum monthly change for the summer of 2009 exceeds that of the summer of 2008. I think this does suggest that prices are, at least, trying to bottom.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151578-u-s-housing-has-bottomed?source=feed#comment-604200 604200

On Jul 27 05:00 PM Alan Young wrote:

> I'm surprised that only one comment has mentioned the seasonality. Okay, home sales are up from January, hurrah. But home sales ALWAYS peak in summer and dip in winter, so that indicates nothing..]]> Mon, 27 Jul 2009 17:33:17 -0400

On Jul 27 05:00 PM Alan Young wrote:

> I'm surprised that only one comment has mentioned the seasonality. Okay, home sales are up from January, hurrah. But home sales ALWAYS peak in summer and dip in winter, so that indicates nothing..]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117209-housing-inventories-offer-positive-news?source=feed#comment-370269 370269

On Jan 29 12:44 PM cadoggy wrote:

> 1) shadow inventory held by banks not yet on MLS

cadoggy,

How do banks market properties they've acquired via foreclosure? Is it through the normal listing process via MLS? I hear of this shadow inventory...but it seems to me that data would be available to estimate the size of this inventory.
]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 15:14:22 -0500

On Jan 29 12:44 PM cadoggy wrote:

> 1) shadow inventory held by banks not yet on MLS

cadoggy,

How do banks market properties they've acquired via foreclosure? Is it through the normal listing process via MLS? I hear of this shadow inventory...but it seems to me that data would be available to estimate the size of this inventory.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100680-equities-where-are-the-bears?source=feed#comment-286155 286155
trimtabs.com/site/fund...]]> Mon, 20 Oct 2008 08:49:20 -0400
trimtabs.com/site/fund...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100512-charts-of-the-day-gold-and-baltic-dry-index?source=feed#comment-284883 284883
Just curious...what is the retail demand versus other types of demand for gold (industrial, central banking, etc)? I know zilch about gold, but I wouldn't expect retail demand to be a large proportion of the overall demand.

Bob]]> Fri, 17 Oct 2008 17:23:59 -0400
Just curious...what is the retail demand versus other types of demand for gold (industrial, central banking, etc)? I know zilch about gold, but I wouldn't expect retail demand to be a large proportion of the overall demand.

Bob]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98073-home-prices-see-record-declines-in-july?source=feed#comment-271621 271621
It's a little scary...but I agree.]]> Thu, 02 Oct 2008 11:46:14 -0400
It's a little scary...but I agree.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98073-home-prices-see-record-declines-in-july?source=feed#comment-270792 270792
It's not apparent to me that this is terribly relevant, as the home values are substantially seasonal, and the most recent three-month period just reflects this seasonal strength. The record year over year decline tells the real story. Those declines have to get smaller before any "not bad news" can be declared... ]]> Wed, 01 Oct 2008 16:30:24 -0400
It's not apparent to me that this is terribly relevant, as the home values are substantially seasonal, and the most recent three-month period just reflects this seasonal strength. The record year over year decline tells the real story. Those declines have to get smaller before any "not bad news" can be declared... ]]>