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  • A Mea Culpa On The British Pound And Next Steps For Trading On The Slippery Slope [View article]
    Ball. DevoMax could give the economies of Scotland and Northern England a major boost, with businesses locating (or relocating) constantly as both areas vie for 'Tax Haven' status. The Pound initially got a leg up after the GFC with relatively stronger growth, the same could happen again IMHO. DevoMax gives the Scots the best of both worlds, a solid Union as well as a modicum of independence.

    Unfortunately, it could also lead to Welsh and Northern Irish demands for more tax raising powers etc. However, hasn't the US managed successfully for a century with a combination of local and federal taxes, and laws?

    BTW, Dr. D., prepare for a dead cat bounce in GBP very shortly, as the significant  'Undecided' elements in the Polls finally own up to a natural Scottish risk aversion. The GBP/AUD pair could produce the best results, no?
    Sep 9 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Subtle Changes With Potentially Strong Implications For The Reserve Bank Of Australia's Latest Monetary Decision [View article]
    Dr. D., don't you think we should stop looking for precise substance in what Central Bankers' ruminate about? Instead we could try and sniff out the spirit and mood in which the Statements are made! Not just RBA, but also BOE and Yellen and Co.. Only the ECB and PB of China talk substance, perhaps because they are culturally programmed to do so. Having said that even the substance could be misleading from the latter.Anyway, enjoyed your piece ,as ever, particularly the spelling out of the "Implications" of the Statements.
    Sep 2 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Fed's Outrageous Gift To Foreign Banks--- Risk Free Aribitrage On IOER--Is Just The Tip Of The Iceberg [View article]
    The top MMA's are paying retail investors 0.85% to 1.25%, i.e.. borrowing from you and me at those rates. Why would they then lend any portion of that pot @ 3-6basis points? Even uninvested reserves can be made to work better than this overnight scandal suggests.
    Surely they could,at the very least, obtain 25 basis points from the Fed themselves, even if routed through the banking sector, albeit not overnight,easily making much more.
    Aug 25 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Struggling To Understand The Resilience Of The Australian Dollar [View article]
    Stevens statement "and even taking account of interest rate differentials" is disingenuous. He knows Australia has the highest real interest rate in the developed world. Its clear the RBA is sitting on a fence between containing perceived inflationary pressures, mainly in property, and the need to keep the economy well oiled.

    They need to use other means to control property prices in the bigger metros, say similar to the British model of limits on available mortgages thru loan to income and other limits imposed on the Banks. May require legislation to enable, but in everyone's interest to knock off a quarter percent from the interest rate.That should do the trick with the exuberant financial markets in Australia,and bring the AUD down to earth.
    Aug 25 07:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GBP Running Away From The Bulls [View article]
    When the underlying stats are fully digested, GBP bears who heed the shrill unanalysed stuff here are likely to get hurt. Its not a black and white picture of clarity. Carney and BoE economists are not amateurs, there will be equally shrill noises when data emerges regarding wage rises for full time employees, as opposed to a mish mash of increased part time and low paid working diluting the overall effect.No reference above to effect of bonuses delayed for tax reasons skewing the other end of spectrum.

    The fall in unemployment at all levels despite increased numbers of gainful foreign born workers also indicative of a robust economy about to run out of slack soon. A rate rise looks likely in the UK by Jan-March '15.
    Aug 13 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Americans Saving Too Little? [View article]

    As an aside, Italy is entering its 3rd recession since 2008. Those enforced (misappropriated?) 'welfare taxes' in Europe are counterproductive. The US and UK have recovered nicely partly because the lower welfare taxes have enabled higher and faster consumption growth.

    As for the US style future, its a distant dream for the Italians whose big government swallows up their so called welfare taxes on waste and EU imposed spending. The Pay As You Go system applies everywhere and again demographics favor a younger more vibrant population, than the ageing 'closed door' European economies.

    Agree with you that the Author's sweeping of welfare taxes into current savings is partly witchcraft ,despite these taxes giving some comfort for future security. Albeit only to those who don't subscribe to SA..
    Aug 10 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glenn Stevens Takes Direct Aim At Market Complacency On The Australian Dollar [View article]
    Dr D., does this angst filled analysis remind you of another recent Central Banker. He hummed and he haa'd like the big bad wolf, but nothing worthwhile seemed to materialize. I am thinking of Mervyn King, and his constant Aunt Sally like moaning.

    Look what's happened under Carney, lots of action accompanying desires, clear direction , leaving no uncertainties or doubts. If Stevens wants a lower dollar, he should take the plunge and knock off a quarter point when least expected. Deal with overheated housing in Sydney and Melbourne by obtaining special powers to restrict and control bank lending there...but to also become a National hero by achieving faster growth and removing uncertainty, for all levels of Society.
    Jul 7 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Complacency? Don't Worry, Be Happy! [View article]
    The view at street level is the same as your incisive analysis, Cam. The ''super profits''are made with an eye and ear to the ground, exactly when conditions are as favorable as the present. Whether it is land speculation or business or commodity investments.

    Strange that the Fed is concerned about 'excess risk', precisely when the economic cycle is drawing in savvy speculators from around the world to make hay while the sun shines. That's good for the general economy if confidence amongst consumers returns. Mixed messages could be debilitating, for all sections of Society.

    History will be repeated, but the time to send out warnings is in the distant future. So distant and so unpredictable, that the Fed will once again miss the boat, along with the naive of all hues ,who are deaf to such noises.
    Jul 7 04:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Shakes, But Will It Break? [View article]
    The Bureau of Economic Analysis should be producing less misleading stats. The severe weather in Q1 was a big factor, and a separate assessment should be made stripping out such one off, ''exceptional'' items. That is mandatory for corporates under financial reporting standards.
    Jun 29 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisions For Q1 Show Biggest Drop In U.S. GDP In 5 Years [View article]
    The reasons for the significant drop in Q1 are clearly indicative of one off factors, the non-recurring severe weather. The Stats would be more meaningful if the Bureau of Economic Analysis made a separate assessment stripping out 'Exceptional Items'. That is a mandatory procedure for corporate reporting under financial reporting standards, so investors have a marker against normal expectations.
    Jun 29 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Economy Of Historical Cycles [View article]
    Gourils, I think you have taken a too literal view. I too have seen third world (India and Africa) societies close up, having lived and originated there. The author's observation regarding a more optimistic, and cheerful outlook in the general populations is indeed apparent. Although GDP per capita is much higher in the West, in order to sustain that and achieve even more, you find a resentful (as opposed to accepting) income inequality, mental illness and a general disharmony in the developed country populations, which doesn't seem to exist in the poorer countries, yet.The same poorer society is more cohesive,with less loneliness and stronger family ties. The body of an elderly woman was just discovered in a house in Bournemouth, England, having passed away 6 years ago.
    Jun 28 08:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Range Affair In Forex? [View article]
    Thanks, wholly justified.
    Jun 23 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Range Affair In Forex? [View article]
    Medium term uncertainties include a Carney like U turn by the Fed, GBP being influenced by unending (pointless) chatter about Scottish and EU votes.Neither vote will be consequential.

    The AUD by a RBA rate cut to instigate a badly needed economic kickstart,ending its high yield pull, a Chinese debt hiccup, and collapsing terms of trade.Your table of week ending 30 August 2014 for these could be quite different.

    Only the Euro and Swiss franc will be relatively unaffected by domestics, Abe will keep the yen downtrodden,until the markets rebel.

    Mark, would appreciate your gazing into a crystal ball,for later in the year. Some of us have the option of delaying buying to further down the line. Cheers.
    Jun 22 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia-China Deal Rattling The Markets [View article]
    Are these set in stone $400m, 40 years? Russia is notorious for reneging on its agreements with Eastern European countries when it suits.The Chinese will want to renogotiate/withdraw if the price isn't right for the a future term, they too are non- fungible. Prevailing market prices are overridden at the Russians' whim.

    A disagreement over some inconsequential territory or Islands could break up the deal, although the certainty of delivery could be compelling for PRC's growing needs.Its a highly commendable transition towards a solid hand shake between the two, but still airy fairy in reality.Bet the written Contract refers to ''applicable Law in PRC and Russia'', both of which are State controlled judiciaries, with no independent benches to enforce such a Contract.

    However, if the deal succeeds over even a decade, it may not be a bad thing for other dominant suppliers to realize they can't dictate terms to helpless buyers, and that they are in a competitive environment. As usual, the US will worry about power blocks ganging up against it and its allies.
    Jun 15 02:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forex: Divergent Performances A Key Characteristic [View article]
    Great news , salivating at prospect for coming days. Sterling could gain upto 2% against USD, which could do same against AUD. So GBP/AUD rate could reach A$1.87/£. Can't wait,best in years.
    Jun 15 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment