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  • Is OPEC's Strategy Working? [View article]
    It is amazing how most ignore Texas Monthly oil production peaked in August of 2014, declining from 72.03 million bbls. to 67.66 million bbls. in November 2014.

    Your comment, "Although rig counts are dropping rapidly and there are huge cuts in capex, both domestically and internationally, any actual impact on production levels is not likely to be evident until Q2, or more likely Q3, of this year" is incorrect. The Texas production decline began six months ago. Texas monthly production includes both the Permian Basin and the Eagle Ford. North Dakota will not be far behind.
    Feb 11, 2015. 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Media Is Dead Wrong About Oil Supply And Demand [View article]
    Ron Patterson published a comprehensive SA article entitled, "Texas RRC oil and Gas Production Data" that illustrates Texas crude oil production, as reported by the Texas Railroad Commission.
    Jan 31, 2015. 03:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Media Is Dead Wrong About Oil Supply And Demand [View article]
    Has anyone noticed Texas Oil Production peaked in August 2014 at 79.15 MMBO and has since declined to 67.66 MMBO in November 2014 (per preliminary estimates of the Texas Railroad Commission?) While these numbers will continue to be revised upward for some time, the trend will not be reversed. For example, last month the figures were August production of 77.9 MMBO declining to 68.68 MMBO in October. Jeff, you are absolutely correct.

    Jerrydd says "First it's going to take a yr before tight oil actually begins to drop then another 6 months to have an actual effect." Hide and watch, the decline began five months ago.
    Jan 31, 2015. 03:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: A Crude Awakening Looms [View article]
    Has anyone noticed Texas oil production reached a peak of 77.9 MMBO in August, declining in September and October to 68.8 MMBO (preliminary estimate per the Texas Railroad Commission.) October is the latest data available. Almost every county in the Permian Basin shows similar production performance. Most shale oil wells decline 60 to 80% during the first year. How long will the 3.5 MMBO/day added by shale plays last?
    Jan 17, 2015. 12:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Bakken shale oil carries high combustion risk [View news story]
    How does Flash Point of Bakken Crude compare to that of Ethanol as both are loaded into railroad tank cars?
    Feb 24, 2014. 11:35 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Grand Bargain: 8 Factors That Could Drive A Surprise On The Deficit [View article]
    Those who think America’s calamitous economic problems can be solved by increasing taxes on the private sector to increase federal government spending need brain transplants. We have a spending problem, not a revenue problem.
    Dec 7, 2012. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Grand Bargain: 8 Factors That Could Drive A Surprise On The Deficit [View article]
    The two-party system has failed America’s citizens and we must establish a viable third party. When both Republicans and Democrats passed pork filled HR 4853 after the Electorate’s message of November 2, 2010 the only solution is to “clean house” by throwing out all incumbents. If Republicans had denied passage, the tax cut extension would have come back in a clean bill. Budget cuts, reportedly $30 billion, turned out to be only $300 million after removing smoke and mirrors.
    The Debt Ceiling Agreement is another example of business as usual with illusory budgets cuts similar to the Bush tax cut extension last December. When the Bush tax cuts expire, the agreement approved will mandate $5 billion in additional taxes. The mandated budget cuts fall heavily on our military which has been decimated by over extension combined with budget cuts.

    IT IS TIME TO STOP DECEIVING THE AMERICAN PEOPLE!

    Professional Politicians Have Destroyed The American Way of Life. Advocates for one world government, including the Clinton and both Bush administrations, have exported our jobs under the guise of global free trade. A natural consequence of this globalization is an equalization of living standards. That is, the living standard of Americans is being permanently reduced while living standards in China and India soar. Check out the following URL and you will see the employed as percentage of the population is dropping and the jobs are not coming back.

    http://bit.ly/RZXGBE

    The Federal Reserve has allowed our currency to depreciate by more than 96% instead of preserving its purchasing value. The U.S. is now bankrupt with no possible way to repay our debts. These same professional politicians are now destroying what is left of American Citizens’ lifetime savings in a futile attempt to inflate away debts of the fiscally imprudent. After they decimate what is left of our fiat currency, and our lifetime savings, decades of depression will follow.

    The following, taken from the internet, should be read and understood by all Americans Democrats, Republicans, EVERYONE!!

    Wal-Mart vs. The Morons
    1. Americans spend $36,000,000 at Wal-Mart every hour of every day.
    2. This works out to $20,928 profit every minute!
    3. Wal-Mart will sell more from January 1 to St. Patrick's Day (March 17th) than Target sells all year.
    4. Wal-Mart is bigger than Home Depot + Kroger + Target +Sears + Costco + K-Mart combined.
    5. Wal-Mart employs 1.6 million people, is the world's largest private employer, and most speak English.
    6. Wal-Mart is the largest company in the history of the world.
    7. Wal-Mart now sells more food than Kroger and Safeway combined, and keep in mind they did this in only fifteen years.
    8. During this same period, 31 big supermarket chains sought bankruptcy.
    9. Wal-Mart now sells more food than any other store in the world.10. Wal-Mart has approx 3,900 stores in the USA of which 1,906 are Super Centers; this is 1,000 more than it had five years ago.
    11. This year 7.2 billion different purchasing experiences will occur at Wal-Mart stores. (Earth's population is approximately 6.5 Billion.)
    12. 90% of all Americans live within fifteen miles of a Wal-Mart.


    a.. The U.S. Postal Service was established in 1775. You have had 234 years to get it right and it is broke.
    b. Social Security was established in 1935. You have had 74 years to get it right and it is broke.
    c. Fannie Mae was established in 1938. You have had 71 years to get it right and it is broke.
    d. War on Poverty started in 1964. You have had 45 years to get it right; $1 trillion of our money is confiscated each year and transferred to "the poor" and they only want more.
    e. Medicare and Medicaid were established in 1965. You have had 44 years to get it right and they are broke.
    f. Freddie Mac was established in 1970. You have had 39 years to get it right and it is broke.
    g. The Department of Energy was created in 1977 to lessen our dependence on foreign oil. It has ballooned to 16,000 employees with a budget of $24 billion a year and we import more oil than ever before. You had 32 years to get it right and it is an abysmal failure.

    The two parties have FAILED in every "government service" shoved down our throats while overspending our tax dollars. Throw the bums out!
    Nov 8, 2012. 09:45 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil And Gasoline Inventories Rise More Than Expected [View article]
    Interestingly, this week’s EIA report of “U.S. Weekly Crude Oil & Product Stocks Including Strategic Petroleum Reserve” shows a decline of 2.7 MM barrels to 1,798.3 MM barrels for the week ending October 12, 2012. A graph of this measure is declining in a downward sloping channel, having peaked at 1,870.1 MM barrels the week ending September 3, 2010. Because of seasonal and other fluctuations in refined products, we follow this series instead of crude oil inventories.
    Oct 18, 2012. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Inventories Surprise To The Downside But Still At Record Highs [View article]
    We maintain a graph of U.S. Crude Oil & Product Stocks, Including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve from weekly EIA data, which we believe is a much better indicator. These stocks increased from 1.477 billion barrels in January 2000 to a peak of 1.857 billion barrels in July 2010 then declined to 1.751 in December 2011 with June 2012 being 1.808 billion barrels. The monthly trend is expressed as y=55.326ln(x)-419.03 with R2=0.8296. The same data presented on a short term weekly graph shows a downward channel beginning in May of 2009. The current month is below both the upper channel boundary and the monthly trend line.
    Sep 27, 2012. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deflation Or Inflation? What The All-Star Analysts Are Predicting [View article]
    Professional Politicians Have Destroyed The American Way of Life. Advocates for one world government, including the Clinton and both Bush administrations, have exported our jobs under the guise of global free trade. A natural consequence of this globalization is an equalization of living standards. That is, the living standard of Americans is being permanently reduced while living standards in China and India soar. Check out the following URL and you will see the employed as percentage of the population is dropping and the jobs are not coming back.

    http://bit.ly/RZXGBE

    The Federal Reserve has allowed our currency to depreciate by more than 96% instead of preserving its purchasing value. The U.S. is now bankrupt with no possible way to repay our debts. These same professional politicians are now destroying what is left of American Citizens’ lifetime savings in a futile attempt to inflate away debts of the fiscally imprudent. After they decimate what is left of our fiat currency, and our lifetime savings, decades of depression will follow.
    Sep 9, 2012. 09:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Oil Bull Market An Illusion? [View article]
    The Oil Bull Market is the result of new technology being applied to exploit previously uneconomic or unrecoverable oil in place. Application of new technologies increases the cost per barrel. Operators in the Permian Basin net about $50/BO, including gas, after royalty, taxes and operating costs. A typical “Wolfberry” well costs about $2 million, thus requiring 40,000 barrels to break even and 120,000 BO to make the play economic. Horizontal wells cost about $8 million with 160,000 BO to break even and 480,000 BO for an economic play. Costs tend to slowly follow the oil price up and down but a large part of increased drilling, completion and operating costs result from additional materials, equipment and service necessitated by the new technologies. If oil prices drop below about $70/BO, drilling activity will decrease and the steep production decline of most currently active plays will force prices back up. Practically speaking, the cheap and easy oil has been found and future oil plays will cost even more. As long as the world is in supply/demand balance oil prices will not decline for long but price volatility will reflect demand fluctuation due to world economic cycles. The trend of oil prices is up and the relative value of reserves in the ground will continue to increase long term .
    Aug 29, 2012. 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of Peregrine Pharmaceutical (PPHM -17.3%) tank on the back of a negative article in Seeking Alpha that asserts the Phase II results for its cancer drug Bavituximab, also known as Bavi, are "overhyped and inconclusive." SA contributor Apsara Biotech calls the massive, 500% runup in the stock over the past two months "unjustified," and says the company's current $300M market cap is far too high for what the company's really worth. [View news story]
    Did Apsara Biotech Research cover his short today or will he try to hype it down further?
    Aug 22, 2012. 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Permian Basin Oil Play: 'Unleashed' [View article]
    Keith:

    Have you conducted an independent study of production from these horizontal plays or are you just accepting what companies tell shareholders?
    Apr 28, 2012. 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Employment Problem: All You Need To Know [View article]
    When Barack Hussein Obama took office on January 20, 2009, The Civilian Labor Force was approximately 153.6 million workers (Bureau of Labor Statistics) and continued increasing to 156.3 million workers by July 1, 2009 when his policies began to have an effect. Since that time, the Civilian Labor Force has declined to 154.3 million workers, losing two million workers through March 1, 2012. The Civilian Population has continued growth in accord with the historical trend but without adding workers to the Labor force. Workers added to the Labor Force were 2.8 million in 2006, 0.9 million in 2007 and 0.6 million during the crash of 2008. Obama’s disastrous policies turned a gain of 0.3 million workers during the first six months of 2009 into a loss of 0.5 million workers during the entire year followed by a loss of 0.4 million workers during 2010. While the economy gained 0.9 workers during 2011, normal growth is 1.6 million workers added each year.
    Apr 20, 2012. 07:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's All About Jobs This Week [View article]
    When Barack Hussein Obama took office on January 20, 2009, The Civilian Labor Force was approximately 153.6 million workers (Bureau of Labor Statistics.) Contrary to claims of the President, the Civilian Labor force increased to 156.3 million workers by July 1, 2009 when his policies began to have an effect. Since that time, the Civilian Labor Force has declined to 154.3 million workers. Obama claims to have created four million jobs as a result of his policies; however, his own Bureau of Labor Statistics reports his policies have resulted in the loss of two million workers through March 1, 2012. Note, the Civilian Population (See BLS POP) has continued growth in accord with the historical trend but without adding new workers to the Labor force. Workers added to the Labor Force were 2.8 million in 2006, 0.9 million in 2007 and 0.6 million during the crash of 2008. Obama’s disastrous policies turned a gain of 0.3 million new workers during the first six months of 2009 into a loss of 0.5 million workers during the entire year followed by a loss of 0.4 million workers during 2010. While the economy gained 0.9 million workers during 2011, normal growth is 1.6 million new workers added each year (average over the period 1988 to 2008.)
    Apr 8, 2012. 07:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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