OstrichHater

The Flat Line Market: Lessons from Japan

That top chart should be in real terms and not in nominal terms, which would give a different picture, because the Fed/Treasury is currently just inflating our way out of the mess we are in.

For the next 8 years (the remainder of that chart) the housing market is likely to stay flat, but not in real terms.

Also the stock market is likely to rise, but in real terms probably not by more than a few % annually.

Expecting Unexciting Long-Term Returns for Years to Come

It would be interesting to look at the 10 yr adjusted PE graph and the 10 year forward return quintile graphs for the 10 year bond (using the invese of the yld as the PE). I suspect that they would be roughly similar.

If so, this would imply that both assets are highly valued and that returns are going to be small no matter where you put your money.

What's keeping a marriage together worth? $60M, for Tiger Woods.

who cares?!?!?!

isnt the idea of seeking alpha to have stories that can help generate "alpha"?

Tiger says I'm sorry.

why is this story about tiger woods posted on seeking alpha?

Another Month, Another Century Mark: Gold Closes in on $1,200

century marks are almost useless because they ignore the denomiator. percentage changes matter more.

ISM Index: Another Sign of a V-Shaped Recovery

Who cares? You should. Aren't you an investor/trader? You should realize that you can profit from this information.


On Dec 01 01:07 PM bigbear4511 wrote:

> Who cares. This V shaped recovery only benefits wall street, not
> main street. It is completely artificial pumped by stimulus and a
> dropping dollar. If it was a real v shaped recovery jobs would have
> increased some 500,000. Wait till the birth/death ratio hits in February.
> Unemployment will hit 11.5%.

Monetary Inflation Index Scores New High

You still havent said exactly what the components are and their percentages. Is this proprietary information or do you just not know?


On Dec 01 09:15 AM Brad Zigler wrote:

> As stated in the article and emphasized here: "Monetary inflation
> tracks the purchasing power of the dollar (higher inflation = less
> value) in global financial transactions where dollars are swapped
> for GOLD or a competing reserve currency, the EURO."
>
> On Dec 01 08:30 AM OstrichHater wrote:

Monetary Inflation Index Scores New High

What are the components of teh HAI index?

Why U.S. GDP Will Decline in Q4

ARE YOU INSANE? ITS GOING TO DECLINE? I DONT EVEN HAVE TO READ THE ARTICLE TO KNOW THAT THIS IS ABSURD.

Has Buffett Lost His Mind?

I think Greenwald has it right. BNI is an energy play. But I think it is also an inflation play. The US Govt keeps printing money and the value of it will drop, forcing up the price of oil which is priced in dollars. Of course the printing of money will also boost the economy, which will doubly drive up the price of oil.

Bruce Greenwald is one of the smartest guys out there. If you dont know who he is, you should look into it, because he has an intelligence that is comparable to Buffet's.

S&P 500 Stocks with the Highest Percentage of Buy Ratings

Typically analysts will upgrade stocks that have performed well. This does not mean they will peform well afterwards. Having been a sellside analyst and having done some quant analysis on this, there is close to 0 significance to the subsequent performance of higher vs lower rated stocks.

U.S. Share of World GDP Remains Remarkably Constant

Simply because the share of US GDP has been flat says nothing about whether or not growth of BRIC countries has come at the expense of the US. You have to compare with and without, which is impossible to do.

RE: We might mistakenly assume that the significant economic growth over the last 40 years in China, India and Brazil has somehow come "at the expense of economic growth in the U.S." (based on the "fixed pie fallacy") but the data suggest otherwise.

Next Up for Paulson: A Gold-Focused Hedge Fund

I cant imagine why someone would suggest that John Pauson is a contrarian indicator?????

If you had taken that view a few years ago, you'd have been in mortgage backed securities and earlier this year, you would have shorted the US investment bank stocks.

Needless to say you'd now be worth 0. Or less.

The Twenty Year Stock Bubble Is Still Inflated

This is a very interesting analysis, but the author's calculations seem to miss the impact of inflation on nominal GDP growth. I believe the authors forecasts are likely for real GDP growth, which isnt the whole picture.

With the massive amount of money printing that the Fed has done and will likely continue to do, we are more than likely going to get inflation for the next 5-6 years. I suspect that inflation will ramp up to 4% over the next couple of years, possibly even higher. That combined with GDP rebounding immediately in late 2009 and early 2010 (~5%), and then tapering off to a 2-3% range, its not unlikely that we will have nominal GDP growth of greater than 6%, even while real GDP growth lags historical trend rates.

This could bring the relationship back much faster (5-6 years) with no or very limited stock market appreciation.

Bernanke: There Are No Bubbles

But as they say... "don't fight the Fed." They've got a lot more $ than you do so its better to ride in their slipstream than it is to bet against what they say they are going to do (i.e. create more $).