Health Plan Stocks, Ted Kennedy and Healthcare Reform [View article]
his death likely catalyzes hardcore dems to get something passed this year. Interesting action will be how he gets replaced--and when. With his death, dems are 1 vote short of filibuster (59 vs 60 votes).
LCA-Vision: An Illustration of Earnings Power [View article]
problem, is, if they add more fixed PPE as we come out of the recession, your earnings power number is too low. I like where you are going with article, but it does very little in telling us where the co is in 2010E, and thats what the Street wants to know. Eveyone already knows 2008 and 2009E were abysmal and numbers came down hard.
Despite Optimism on Healthcare, Athenahealth's Short Base Remains High [View article]
The docs will order more in early 2010 to qualify for the govt subsidies and incentives - health IT will see strong demand, that is why stocks are up - shorts are mostly looking at high valuations...eventually there will be consolidation here, as MCK could go after a rev cycle mgmt player...
Healthcare Stocks Have a Serious Drug Problem [View article]
home health is interesting - they got hit on the budget plan., but that is funny b/c there is not a lot of waste there. Hospitals account for 30% of every health care dollar spent in the US and that is where the administration needs to focus.
Even if home health sees lower rates., they still have sick margins and the mom and pops (its a fragmented industry) will get destroyed
I guess you could say a stock is "double overpriced" if its PE is 2x that of a peer (b/c investors willing to pay twice as much for $1 in earnings than it would for another company), but you really need to consider more the earnings growth behind the companies (tied to PEG ratios), the longevity of that earnings, the risk of those earnings, etc. A P/E multiple is more than some arbitrary marker - and there is much more to consider than what you have stated. That said, nice trade with the GILD and I liked the article.
Definitely will be interesting to see if they continue on their own or "tap out" and fold into a larger pharmaceutical com trying to fill the holes in its top line...
there is a chunk of $ being taken AWAY from home health names in the 2010 budget - did you look at the tables on the back? If they get passed, it won't be good. That said, the stocks have gotten nailed already and probably already pricng in lower Medicare rates going forward.
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**** 30% of every health care dollar goes to hospitals (inpatient/outpatient) from what I have read (CMS, MedPAC, etc)
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Even if home health sees lower rates., they still have sick margins and the mom and pops (its a fragmented industry) will get destroyed
Good for GTIV AMED AFAM LHCG $$
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Definitely will be interesting to see if they continue on their own or "tap out" and fold into a larger pharmaceutical com trying to fill the holes in its top line...
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