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reggieyau
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Reggie Yau, CFA, specialty in derivatives, global macro and statistical arbitrage strategies.
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  • A Call Too Early?

    Lesson learnt and (continue to) appreciate the probabilistic view of the real world.

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Tags: ERUS
    Dec 16 7:29 AM | Link | Comment!
  • It Is About Time To Close Out Short Positions In Russian Equities

    I have a bearish view on Russian equities, which in particular represented by the MSCI Russia 25/50 Index ETF - ERUS US Equity, since Q1 2014. As per latest developments of APEC in Beijing, I believe it is time to close out any shorts in Russian equities.

    Justifications:

    1) Russia seems to have found continued support from China (energy contracts, rail contracts, the newly created alliance New Development Bank, NDB), and yet US has also shown key friendly moves with China (Information Technology Agreement, ITA, Tesla motors, Alibaba IPO).

    2) RUB Curncy has depreciated from 32.8696 to as high as 46.7232 on Nov 7 this year, for about 40% which is more than offset the loss of energy prices this year. As Putin commented in APEC, the Central Bank of Russia is taking action lately to support the currency.

    As we are entering mid-November, I reckon this is a very good time to review the risk-rewards of holding the shorts for an extended time before the year end.

    The drop of ERUS US Equity since Q4, which is about 6.6% so far, may easily be cleared off simply due to FX intervention.

    Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Tags: ERUS
    Nov 11 10:24 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Ronald H. Coase, 1910 - 2013

    Ronald H. Coase helped create the field of law and economics, through groundbreaking scholarship that earned him the 1991 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences and through his far-reaching influence as a journal editor.

    Coase, who spent most of his academic career at the University of Chicago Law School, died at the age of 102 on Sept. 2 at St. Joseph's Hospital in Chicago. He was believed to be the oldest living Nobel laureate.

    news.uchicago.edu/article/2013/09/02/ron...?utm_source=newsmodule

    Sep 03 9:48 AM | Link | Comment!
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