Susan

Overvalued, Overbought, Overbullish Conditions

>>&g... Overvalued: S&P 500 price/peak earnings greater than 18

Does this refer to forward looking earnings?
The TTM on the SPY right now is P/E=15.75

Portfolio Building With Forward Looking Asset Allocation

This is an unusually insighful article. Thank you!
Bernstein (both books, not just the first) is a must read.

The 'Best' Way to Capture Foreign Exposure

EWM and EWS have high correlation among themselves but relatively low correlation vs the SPY.

I have wondered if this is because of the time (one day) difference between the markets, but when I switch from daily to weekly price change correlation (past 1 year) I still get low correlations vs the SPY:

<blockquote>
<code>
Correlation vs SPY
----------------------
Ticker: Daily Weekly
EWS 0.62 0.65
EWM 0.51 0.45
</code>
</blockquote>

This data is based on closing prices (daily and weekly) over the past year (252 trading says). Correlation is simple linear correlation between two percent change series.

Emerging Market ETF Has Seen Better Times

These kind of predictions rarely pan out. Globalization did not exist in 1988. Brazil and other emerging economies were big debtor nations, now many are running surpluses. China's growth and growing middle-income class is driving significant growth in raw material exporting countries.

The big drop was an overreaction to Chavez Venezuela's nationalization plans.

My prediction: EEM will break new highs this year, several times.

Capital-Protected ETFs: Seeking Alpha via ETF?

Hmmm...
<code>
managers who “examine the market” and “anticipate future trends”
</code>

So, what we have here is essentially a new high-cost (for an index fund) "market timers" fund.

Is there anything really new here (except for this being an ETF)?
Any doubts that they will, over time, underperform their index?

A Closed-End Fund For Income Investors

Hmm, isn't the 1.70% expense ratio excessive for an slow-growers/income fund?