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How Impossible Is Market Timing?

NO ONE CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE.

PERIOD.

ONE CAN ONLY GUESS AND BET, AND THIS IS WHAT MEBANE'S MODEL IS FOR. EASY TO FOLLOW AND IMPLEMENT FOR AVERAGE INVESTORS.

WHEN YOU GUESS AND BET, YOU RUN THE RISK OF BETTING THE WRONG SIDE, OR RIGHT SIDE OF THE MARKET.

If you are looking for the investment opportunity that gives positive returns all the time without losing years, look to Bernie Maddoff and his Ponzi company. His company is much better than hedge funds.





On Jan 01 01:19 PM User 329378 wrote:

> You are right on. This guy mebane is a total hack. I checked out
> his firm's website and found not one but two direct plagiarisms from
> Goldman Sachs mission statement: number 1 "we founded our firm on
> the basis of four premises. First, our clients' interests always
> come first. Our experience shows that if we serve our clients well,
> our own success will follow." number 2 "our assets are our people,
> capital and reputation. If any of these is ever diminished, the last
> is the most difficult to restore". Ironically, the rest of the website
> goes on to talk about the ethics and their moral compass. Seriously,
> why would anyone ever listen to this joker. This guy reminds me
> of the quote from the movie wallstreet by Hal Hal Holbrook "Kid,
> you're on a roll. Enjoy it while it lasts, 'cause it never does."
> Actually, I must ask why anyone listens to this joker. Am I really
> the only guy that has gone to the website and noticed all the plagiarism?
> Apparently, his strategy is better than harvard or yale's. If that
> is the case he should market it to them I am sure his advanced mathematics
> will blow them away and they will hire him to manage all those billions
> of dollars....then again, maybe not.

How Impossible Is Market Timing?

Mebane's model generates whipsaws. How do I reduce whipsaws? The model is working in the current market, and I have to give him two thumbs up and two toes up, as this is the only free article I know that backtest in detail, and easy to implement in just plain Excel worksheet.

GTAA Model Feedback

i have read a lot of articles about timing the market, none of them answered my main question: how often should investors rebalance their portfolios. After reading your article of TAA model, I suddenly found what I might be wrong in the past: I am tracking daily changes and did not allow time for the portfolio to work out itself, and too much emotional stuffs gets in the way. I am now 85% in cash but the 15% is from the long-time losers I have been holding and some inverse ETF's