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Jim Myrtle

Jim Myrtle
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  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    "the traditional fixed-rate mortgage may be an expensive method of financing a home."

    Excellent!

    "Calculations by market analysts of the "option adjusted spread" on mortgages suggest that the cost of these benefits conferred by fixed-rate mortgages can range from 0.5 percent to 1.2 percent, raising homeowners' annual after-tax mortgage payments by several thousand dollars"

    Even better.

    "To the degree that households are driven by fears of payment shocks but are willing to manage their own interest rate risks, the traditional fixed-rate mortgage may be an expensive method of financing a home"

    Look at that.

    30 year mortgages are expensive, especially if you move in less than 10 years, as many Americans do.

    If they can "manage their own interest rate risks" home buyers can save with an adjustable.

    "Indeed, recent research within the Federal Reserve suggests that many homeowners might have saved tens of thousands of dollars had they held adjustable-rate mortgages rather than fixed-rate mortgages during the past decade, though THIS WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN THE CASE, of course, HAD INTEREST RATES TRENDED SHARPLY UPWARD"

    So did they after 2004?
    Look at these 3 charts and you tell me which was better.

    http://bit.ly/1h5IY8A

    http://bit.ly/1h5IY8C

    http://bit.ly/1h5IY8E
    Apr 17 12:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    Keep working on that math, Coins.
    Maybe one day you'll understand what outperform means.
    Apr 16 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    "I posted a youtube of someone else who heard it twice as well"

    Obviously someone's faulty recollection is more accurate than the actual words he said. LOL!
    Apr 16 05:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    "Jim, I personally heard Greenspan say it on CNBC"

    Misheard.

    "and don't need to prove anything to you"

    If he said it, you could, no doubt, find it on YouTube.
    Let's go back to the horse's mouth.

    Mitigating Homeowner Payment Shocks

    Rising debt service ratios are a concern if they reflect household financial stress and presage a drop in consumption or a rise in losses by lenders. Most homeowners and renters are aware of the possible difficulties should they lock themselves into a high level of debt payment obligations. Financial institutions might be able to help some households in this regard by looking for ways that households--both renters and homeowners--can shield themselves from unexpected payment shocks.

    One way homeowners attempt to manage their payment risk is to use fixed-rate mortgages, which typically allow homeowners to prepay their debt when interest rates fall but do not involve an increase in payments when interest rates rise. Homeowners pay a lot of money for the right to refinance and for the insurance against increasing mortgage payments. Calculations by market analysts of the "option adjusted spread" on mortgages suggest that the cost of these benefits conferred by fixed-rate mortgages can range from 0.5 percent to 1.2 percent, raising homeowners' annual after-tax mortgage payments by several thousand dollars. Indeed, recent research within the Federal Reserve suggests that many homeowners might have saved tens of thousands of dollars had they held adjustable-rate mortgages rather than fixed-rate mortgages during the past decade, though this would not have been the case, of course, had interest rates trended sharply upward.

    American homeowners clearly like the certainty of fixed mortgage payments. This preference is in striking contrast to the situation in some other countries, where adjustable-rate mortgages are far more common and where efforts to introduce American-type fixed-rate mortgages generally have not been successful. Fixed-rate mortgages seem unduly expensive to households in other countries. One possible reason is that these mortgages effectively charge homeowners high fees for protection against rising interest rates and for the right to refinance.

    American consumers might benefit if lenders provided greater mortgage product alternatives to the traditional fixed-rate mortgage. To the degree that households are driven by fears of payment shocks but are willing to manage their own interest rate risks, the traditional fixed-rate mortgage may be an expensive method of financing a home.

    http://1.usa.gov/1kzsprp

    Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan
    Understanding household debt obligations
    At the Credit Union National Association 2004 Governmental Affairs Conference, Washington, D.C.
    February 23, 2004

    Let me know if the proof of your claim is there. Thanks!
    Apr 16 04:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    "But believe what you want. Yellen agrees with me"

    Excellent! Does Yellen have the quote to prove your Greenspan claim?
    Apr 16 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    Sorry you mistook my mockery as applying to you.

    You must have misheard Greenspan.
    The quote you provided doesn't back up your claim.
    Apr 16 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    "Never said that Jim"

    Coins did, that's why I mocked him.

    I'm curious, do you still feel Greenspan told homeowners to get an adjustable mortgage?
    Apr 15 10:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    "That's why I called him out on "nitpicking" earlier. You can pick dates from multiple time frames to make your point look good on either side"

    When you say silver is a better store of value than FRNs, despite dropping 60% against FRNs since 2011, I'm gonna have to mock you.

    When you get a chance, can you walk thru the math with Coins?
    He still doesn't understand "150% outperformance". Thanks!
    Apr 15 10:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    "My 1964 quarter was purchased in 2003 !"

    Awesome!

    "Jim bought in 2011?"

    Nope.

    "Who's the better investor?"

    The guy who sold your "store of wealth" in 2011.
    Apr 15 10:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    "Jim, is a gambler and can't leave the casino. They Buy and hold liabilities. I Buy Silver and am glad to have real wealth"

    Buying silver isn't a gamble?
    Why is it down 60% from 3 years ago?
    Apr 15 04:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    Jim wrote "If that's correct, " It's not

    You said the 1964 quarter is now worth $4. Disagreeing with yourself?

    "Where can you buy 40 quarters for $4.00 today ?"

    ESL? Three years ago, your 1964 quarter was worth $10.
    You can buy 40 quarters for $10 everyday.

    Jim wrote :"Looks like a 150% outperformance for the 1965s to me."

    "My reply :Only in YOUR alleged mind Jim"

    Your 1964 quarter is worth 60% less than 3 years ago.
    That means the 1965 quarter did 150% better than the 1964 quarter.

    Ask an adult to help you with the math.
    Apr 15 03:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    Jim Myrtle wrote: "Over the last 3 years, the 1965 quarter has outperformed the 1964 quarter by 150%."

    "Blatantly false"

    LOL!

    "The 1964 quarter is worth about $4.00 today"

    If that's correct, it was worth $10, three years ago.
    Now try to follow, because there is math involved.

    Three years ago, your 1964 quarter bought 40 of the 1965 quarters.
    Today, it only buys 16 of the 1965 quarters.
    Looks like a 150% outperformance for the 1965s to me.
    Apr 15 02:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    ""Which has been a greater store of wealth?" A 1965 quarter or a Silver pre-1965 quarter?"

    Over the last 3 years, the 1965 quarter has outperformed the 1964 quarter by 150%.
    Apr 15 09:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    "So "Debt " is good Jim?"

    Sometimes.
    Apr 15 01:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    "Jim, I state what I state and it's open to criticism which is why I am entering these debates. Thank you for corresponding"

    No problem. I'm happy to point out your errors.

    "As far as your investments, you are only investing in stocks?"

    I have some money in a few bond funds. No commodities as such.

    "If you are a fan of the Fed, based on your reply"

    I'm a fan of accuracy.

    "Would you agree that the low interest rate cycle for bonds is coming to an end?"

    We'll probably see 4% on the 10 year before we see 2%.

    "What happens when the 10 year goes over 3%? How do you account for the higher interest payment on the debt?"

    Our debt will become more expensive to finance.
    Some Republicans will come up with ways to cut spending.
    Most Democrats will demonize them.
    Most likely, little will be done.

    "Where do you see commodities; gold, silver, oil?"

    I don't play them. When China goes into a tailspin, oil should drop.
    Fracking will also play a role.

    "Do you think the U.S. will see battle in N. Korea area or the Middle East?"

    I hope not.

    "How is this paid for?"

    More debt.
    Apr 13 11:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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