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Jim Myrtle

Jim Myrtle
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  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    "My 1964 quarter was purchased in 2003 !"

    Awesome!

    "Jim bought in 2011?"

    Nope.

    "Who's the better investor?"

    The guy who sold your "store of wealth" in 2011.
    Apr 15, 2014. 10:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    "Jim, is a gambler and can't leave the casino. They Buy and hold liabilities. I Buy Silver and am glad to have real wealth"

    Buying silver isn't a gamble?
    Why is it down 60% from 3 years ago?
    Apr 15, 2014. 04:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    Jim wrote "If that's correct, " It's not

    You said the 1964 quarter is now worth $4. Disagreeing with yourself?

    "Where can you buy 40 quarters for $4.00 today ?"

    ESL? Three years ago, your 1964 quarter was worth $10.
    You can buy 40 quarters for $10 everyday.

    Jim wrote :"Looks like a 150% outperformance for the 1965s to me."

    "My reply :Only in YOUR alleged mind Jim"

    Your 1964 quarter is worth 60% less than 3 years ago.
    That means the 1965 quarter did 150% better than the 1964 quarter.

    Ask an adult to help you with the math.
    Apr 15, 2014. 03:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    Jim Myrtle wrote: "Over the last 3 years, the 1965 quarter has outperformed the 1964 quarter by 150%."

    "Blatantly false"

    LOL!

    "The 1964 quarter is worth about $4.00 today"

    If that's correct, it was worth $10, three years ago.
    Now try to follow, because there is math involved.

    Three years ago, your 1964 quarter bought 40 of the 1965 quarters.
    Today, it only buys 16 of the 1965 quarters.
    Looks like a 150% outperformance for the 1965s to me.
    Apr 15, 2014. 02:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    ""Which has been a greater store of wealth?" A 1965 quarter or a Silver pre-1965 quarter?"

    Over the last 3 years, the 1965 quarter has outperformed the 1964 quarter by 150%.
    Apr 15, 2014. 09:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    "So "Debt " is good Jim?"

    Sometimes.
    Apr 15, 2014. 01:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    "Jim, I state what I state and it's open to criticism which is why I am entering these debates. Thank you for corresponding"

    No problem. I'm happy to point out your errors.

    "As far as your investments, you are only investing in stocks?"

    I have some money in a few bond funds. No commodities as such.

    "If you are a fan of the Fed, based on your reply"

    I'm a fan of accuracy.

    "Would you agree that the low interest rate cycle for bonds is coming to an end?"

    We'll probably see 4% on the 10 year before we see 2%.

    "What happens when the 10 year goes over 3%? How do you account for the higher interest payment on the debt?"

    Our debt will become more expensive to finance.
    Some Republicans will come up with ways to cut spending.
    Most Democrats will demonize them.
    Most likely, little will be done.

    "Where do you see commodities; gold, silver, oil?"

    I don't play them. When China goes into a tailspin, oil should drop.
    Fracking will also play a role.

    "Do you think the U.S. will see battle in N. Korea area or the Middle East?"

    I hope not.

    "How is this paid for?"

    More debt.
    Apr 13, 2014. 11:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    "No, and especially if you're GS and bet on the right side, you walk away with profits even if the counterparty can't pay"

    But of course AIG could have paid, even at firesale prices, they had plenty of assets.
    Apr 13, 2014. 12:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    Why would it wreak havoc? The bank on one side of the bet makes money, the one on the other loses money.

    "One more time: Counterparty risk. As in: Wall Street, 2008"


    "A distinction without a difference. If derivatives are written on sub-investment grade paper, the movement of the underlying paper wreaks havoc and taxpayers come to the rescue"

    So if I have a derivative on Venezuelan debt, and the underlying moves, that will wreak havoc because of counterparty risk?
    Why will the taxpayer rescue me? What if my derivative is profitable?
    Will I still get rescued?
    Apr 13, 2014. 11:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    "Jim, not sure what you're talking about"

    Your confusion between derivatives and bonds.
    Your claim about the Fed's ability to control long rates.
    Your claim that the Fed did not react to the RE bubble.
    Your error about what Greenspan said about adjustable mortgages.

    "what is your prediction of the next 1-5 years for the economy and investment climate "

    I think we've got another year or two of gains in the market ahead of us.
    If the Republicans take the Senate and can repeal Obamacare in 2017, that will be a huge boost. But I won't hold my breath.
    Apr 13, 2014. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    "Nitpicking Jim"

    A 60% drop from 3 years ago is nitpicking? LOL!
    Apr 12, 2014. 08:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    I'm just glad, after repeating those errors for years, now you know better.
    Apr 12, 2014. 08:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    "Yes ,convert FRN's to Silver. Why? Because it is a better storage of wealth"

    Obviously. As you can see by the 60% decline in the last 3 years.
    Great way to store wealth.
    Apr 12, 2014. 06:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    "Why can't the market dictate interest rates Jim?"

    The market does dictate interest rates. Except for the overnight rate.

    Jim said; "Yeah, the Fed doesn't control long rates."

    "It's part of their Dual Mandate you can read from their own website Jim"

    Their dual mandate doesn't mean they control long rates.
    You should know that.

    "Why, then, did the Federal Reserve not take note and increase the interest rate sooner?"

    Sooner?
    Glad you finally agree they did react, years before the bubble burst.
    Despite your initial claim to the contrary.

    "Not confused Jim. From the horse's mouth"...

    "Indeed, recent research within the Federal Reserve suggests that many homeowners might have saved tens of thousands of dollars had they held adjustable-rate mortgages rather than fixed-rate mortgages during the past decade, though this would not have been the case, of course, had interest rates trended sharply upward."

    Excellent! I see the part about the past decade.
    Don't see the proof for your claim.

    "Or are you referring to after Greenspan went on record in 2004 that home owners should take out an ARM"

    Try again?
    Apr 12, 2014. 03:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Next? [View article]
    "Jim, the Fed via Greenspan artificially lowered rates"

    What should the rates have been? When?

    "Janet Yellen; "long-term interest rates were well below what appeared consistent with the expected future path of short-term rates."

    Yeah, the Fed doesn't control long rates.

    "Is this reacting to the housing bubble years before it burst?"

    No. M1 on Sep 20, 2004 was $1.372 trillion. On Feb 18, 2008, M1 was $1.374 trillion. That's almost 3.5 years with no change.
    http://bit.ly/QgMhUF

    The Fed Funds rate went from 1.75% in Oct 2004 to 5.25% in Jun 2006.
    They held the rate there for over a year.
    http://bit.ly/QgMhUJ

    Isn't that reacting to the bubble years before it burst?

    "Or are you referring to after Greenspan went on record in 2004 that home owners should take out an ARM"

    You'll have to share the exact quote. I suspect you're confused.
    Apr 12, 2014. 11:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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