Fitz919

'Green Shoots' Not a Phrase Used by Those Who Know

Today CIT Group is crumbling. It's the biggest thing since WaMu if it collapses, and the market and financials are rallying over a banking sector upgrade, and the exact same person is saying unemployment will reach 13%.

Houston we have a problem!

Credit Card Losses Continue to Mount

As I see it the Credit Card Losses are high, and increasing, much like the Unemployment Rate.

The peaks on your charts are reflective of pure speculation on where these two rates are going over the next 2 years.

So things are bad and appear to be getting worse. That's all I needed to know.

Toxic Assets: Facts, Lies and Hype

The report about Citi being profitable during Jan and Feb was from an office memo. It was probably an answer to a question about how well they would have done if they didn't have to comply with mark to market accounting rules. It wouldn't surprise me a bit if this quarter they had another big fat loss under m2m.

Just watch...when earnings season comes around again, the market will be heading lower.


On Mar 13 12:43 PM Plumber 250 wrote:

> I don't know about google hits because I am basically electronicly
> challenged. But I do know that just because sentiment changes doesn't
> mean reality changes. A week ago these banks (Wells Fargo, Citi,
> BofA, etc) were totally in the crapper and this week they are soaring.
> This looks like a bear trap to me. Galbreath's book about the crash
> has numerous accounts of Wall Street leaders issuing statements about
> how the carnage was over and everyone could jump back in. That's
> all baloney. The tsunami of credit card defaults and student loan
> defaults is going to drive the banks further down and anyone that
> thinks otherwise should come see me about a bridge I have for sale
> in Brooklyn. What else is Buffet and Dimon going to say....oh! by
> the way our banks are technically insolvent and we are going to have
> to have a new round of capital raising at fire sale prices. Come
> on people, one Bernie Madoff may be on his way to jail, but there
> are still many others out there. Anyone who even thinks of buying
> bank stocks at this time needs to be fitted for a sleeveless white
> jacket. There is an old saying in retail....the butcher that has
> no lamb chops can afford to advertise them at the lowest price in
> town. What does it matter what the spread is on bank loans if people
> cannot afford, or are afraid to, make purchases of the products the
> money would be loaned for? In one breath the wizard of Omaha is saying
> he has never seen the consumer's wallet sewn so tightly shut and
> in the next breath he is telling us the banks are making loans at
> record spreads. Cars aren't selling, RVs aren't selling, the universities
> are scalling back because student loans have plummeted. Six months
> ago we were hearing how corporate balance sheets are bloated with
> debt, all of a sudden they all got well. What happened? Did they
> all hit the lottery? We have a debt problem in this country. Families
> and corporations are leveraged to the hilt. Consumers cannot spend
> their way out of that problem and corporations cannot borrow their
> way out of their problem. As long as the housing market remains a
> zombie the banks have junk for assets. When the million plus empty
> houses that are on the market are sold to families who can afford
> them, and when the houses that should be foreclosed on are foreclosed
> on and subsequently sold to families who can afford them (and that
> means having a job) then the banks will be out of the woods. Until
> that time, watch out for the bear traps.

Toxic Assets: Facts, Lies and Hype

Don't waste our time with your google hit nonsense.

S&P Set for 50%+ Gains? Not So Fast, UBS

Only do it if you are a true day trader, watching your screen constantly. These Levereged ETFs have absolutely shocking volitility, and move so fast you don't dare take a restroom break once you buy one. Also, never hold one overnight. Always buy and sell the same day. If you want to use margin, you can if you adhere to those two rules. And the best part of using some margin on a pure day trade, is that you'll never pay any margin interest, or suffer a margin call. If you don't have a negative balance at the end of the day (this includes After Hours Trading), your broker will not charge you any margin interest. If you've never heard of this, call your broker, he'll verify it.


On Dec 07 12:45 PM Domino412 wrote:

> Does this mean I should go all the way out to my margin limit and
> buy shares in some of the 2X and 3X bull ETF's? I sure don't want
> to miss out on any recovery.

S&P Set for 50%+ Gains? Not So Fast, UBS

Don't be fooled. Everyone is overlooking the basics. Those insidious Mortgage Backed Securities which were sliced and diced, fraudulently rated Tripple A, and sold globally, must each be unraveled so that Individual Mortgages can be identified. Those Mortgages must be sorted into their various types. Some of those mortgages are still viable, and can continue to produce income for their owners. The others: the Sub-Prime, Alt-A, Option Arms, Interest Only, All Variable Rate Mortgages, etc, etc, must be Refinanced along with all those that have already defaulted.

You have to recognize the fact that using the Lender's Appraiser always results in inflated home prices, and that Lenders always offer the Borrower the Mortgage plan which benefits the Lender the most. (It's like the difference between a Market Order, and a Limit Order. One gives you the worst possible price at that moment in time, and the other puts you in the driver's seat, because you get to choose the price.

If anyone and everyone could Refinance at a Fixed Rate of 4%, and no Lender could do otherwise, no matter how large the Mortgage, we would see a Refi-Boom, and 6 months to a year from now, we would be fully recovered from this recession. Caps on the rates charged on Car Loans, and Credit Cards would follow. The 451 Trillion Dollar Derivatives Market (The Largest Global Fantasy/Nightmare, the World has ever known) would deflate dramatically and would be largely eliminated.

When this crisis hit, Lenders immediately fired the very people they needed most: The people who write the Mortgages. They should have been put to work writing up new fixed rate mortgages to replace the junk they were selling. But Lenders, like most Felons, are rarely willing to admit what they've been up to. And having face to face meetings, for the purpose of righting the wrong they've perpetrated, with those they've defrauded, is not only painful, but dangerous. Lenders have chosen the safer route: Admit nothing. Wait patiently, while preserving capital, accept all bailout offers, and pray the Hedge Funds don't decide to Short your company's stock to death.

It's brutal out there. And the ones who caused it to get this bad, aren't lifting a finger to solve the problem.

All the charts and graphs you show us don't mean squat. A recovery won't come untill there's a whole lotta refinancing going on. You can take that to the Bank....if it's still there on Monday morning.

Tripple Levereged ETF's RULE!!!!