prudentinvestor

'Bubble-Mania' in Shanghai Spreads to Global Markets

Your seven-point indictment seem applicable to the current situation in some advanced economies, not just China!


On Aug 05 11:35 AM doubleshortetf wrote:

> Been to China over 30 times since 1998 while working for 3 multinationals.
> It's amusing to see "experts" who has not been to China or spent
> few days in the big Chinese cities recommending Chinese stocks...
> Wonder if they ever spent weeks at a time in gritty factory towns
> or poor interior areas...
>
> Some sober facts:
>
> 1. China is a communist country ruled by 1 party with iron grip.
> Party bosses pick the politicians and many private company managements
> since many private companies are ex-SOE (communist state owned enterprises).
>
>
> 2. Corruption in China is rampant and one of the worst even down
> to lower ranking employees. Even factory canteen chef gets "envelopes"
> in scheme where he claims he received 10 bags of rice when only 8
> bags are delivered.
>
> 3. There is almost no "law" since law itself is written to support
> the communist party or corrupt local communist bosses. Judges are
> appointed by the local communist boss and few if any understand law.
> Many judges got job thru "guanxi" or connection and of course bribes.
>
>
> 4. The Chinese banks in are BIG TROUBLE. E&Y got in heaps of
> trouble for discussing hidden bad and uncollectible debts. Local
> communist cadres dictate banks to lend to their pet projects and
> of course friends who bribe them not to mention COMPLETE lack of
> transparency.
>
> 5. No one except pea size brains trusts the communist government's
> statistics which are MANIPULATED.
>
> 6. Many of the listed companies numbers are COOKED. Auditors and
> their management can be bribed and extorted. It's beyond me how anyone
> would trust Chinese companies' financials unless audited by Big 4.
> And even Big 4s audited numbers are suspect since most Chinese companies
> carry multiple books including one for taxation and another for real
> book with slush funds.
>
> 7. Latest Chinese share and commodity appreciation have lot to do
> with communists pumping money to the economy by directing the banks
> to make loans. This kind of stimulus cannot go on.
>
> Now is good time to buy FXP when all the investment gurus in unison
> are recommending Chinese stocks.

Global Markets in Review: Stocks Higher on a Stimulus and a Prayer

You quote David Fuller "A rising stock market would force a reappraisal by bears, leading to a reversal of short positions, while long-only investors put more of their cash back into the stock market."

As a fairly successful long term, and long-only investor, I don't buy stocks on "momentum", or just because the market goes up, or because bears reverse their short positions. I buy stocks based on value and fundamentals like earnings, dividends, business model, and balance sheet quality. I suspect many other long-only investors use similar logic. These fundamentals are getting worse, with no sign of imminent improvement.