Replace American Capital After Dismal Earnings? What I'm Doing With The Stock Now [View article]
I believe these stocks are in transition. They will do OK dividend-wise in a higher interest rate environment but I think they will have to sell off the old portfolio and reinvest it. That means loss of BV and pressure on income as unrealized losses are realized.
They are in the same position with their MBS portfolios as many of us are with our investment in them.
I think dividends are safe for now. Thats why Im here. Im just going to ride it out. Every time you look at your mREIT portfolio remember to add back in unrealized losses!
mREITs During Q1: More Bad News, But A Few Winners Emerge [View article]
Things seem to be tied to the 10 yr. Very sensitive with an upward bias: when the 10 yr goes higher the mREITS go lower. Our ten year went up today to over 2% It is priced more like Italy and Belgium. Its almost twice the yield of Germany and if memory is good higher than France.
I think the markets are overstating the US risk. The rate, by world standards, is too high or high enough.
That tells me the 10 yr is oversold and things are going to snap back restoring some lost value.
18.4% Dividend Payer Western Asset Mortgage Disappoints - What's The Outlook? [View article]
"You should immediately note that all of the big losers in Q1 book value - AGNC, WMC, and ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) -- have the same strategy: high leverage + 30-year mortgage paper. In a rising rate environment, this is precisely what you do not want to own. "
New Market Highs Are Easy To Handle [View article]
About a yr ago, just for fun I pitted $2,000 of GE against $2,000 of AMTG. I have reinvested manually. The GE is slightly behind the AMTG but both have done well. Right now they are moving in opposite directions with strong trends.
I really like the GE. Not only do we have a nice unrealized gain, we have seen its dividend go from .17 - .19. Even though its slighty behind AMTG in overall perfromance I think its the better investment. Would love some Chevron.
18.4% Dividend Payer Western Asset Mortgage Disappoints - What's The Outlook? [View article]
WMC reported a net loss of 28.5 mill. They also reported net unrealized losses of about 41 mill. That leaves about 13 million lying around. It looks to me like they will need between 22-23 mill to pay the dividend. With their cash of 3.9 mill and and the 13 mill they are close to covering another .90 payout but its going to be tough. They do have over 300 mill in accrued interest receivables.
Its in a weaker position than AMTG. Im long both.
What worries me is WMC chart looks a lot like ARRs.
Im long, investing for dividends and watching my unrealized losses in this sector just like my mREIT fund managers are watching theirs.
There is downward pressure on the 10 yr bond yields today.
The mortgage REITs are lit up bright red (MORT -1.9%), again led by American Capital Agency (AGNC -3.5%) and American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -3%), with Annaly (NLY -3.1%) not far behind. Yes, the 10-year Treasury yield is a 3 bps higher, but there's also rare action in Fed Funds futures, now pricing in a whopping 50 bps in rate hikes by this time 2016. AGNC presents at the JMP Conference at 2 ET. [View news story]
I bought ARR at 6.05 BV recently reported at 6.66. AMTG pres says BV concerns are overstated and BV is already recovering from the end of quarter. Current fundamentals are good for my holdings. That should support them, but the trading ranges on these things is wide. This is no place to be if you lament every down tick.
More on American Capital Mortgage Investment (MTGE) Q1 earnings: Like sister company AGNC (also with Gary Kain as CIO), MTGE reports a big mark-to-market loss ($1.66/share) on agency MBS. Loss partially offset by $0.64 gain on non-agency holdings. Spread income of $0.62 - NIM of 2.01%, off 6 bps from Q4. Book value of $24.25/share, down 5.8% from Dec. 31. Shares -2.3% AH after 3.5% loss in regular session. (PR) [View news story]
More on American Capital Mortgage Investment (MTGE) Q1 earnings: Like sister company AGNC (also with Gary Kain as CIO), MTGE reports a big mark-to-market loss ($1.66/share) on agency MBS. Loss partially offset by $0.64 gain on non-agency holdings. Spread income of $0.62 - NIM of 2.01%, off 6 bps from Q4. Book value of $24.25/share, down 5.8% from Dec. 31. Shares -2.3% AH after 3.5% loss in regular session. (PR) [View news story]
There was plenty of news out there. I sold mine when I read about the falling BV. Got some profit too. I now hold AMTG and WMC. I am reading AMTG will not have similar problems as AGNC but Im not sure about WMC. It pays a 17% Div right now, we know thats not going up.
American Capital Agency Corp.'s Earnings Disaster - A Warning Of Things To Come? [View article]
I've been in and out of these things for some time. To me the key is the dividend. At 30 AGNC is yielding 16.65%. If they are strong enough to continue the dividend that rate of return will stop the fall at some point. At book value return is well over 17%. BV of 28.91 will also cushion the fall. If the Div holds I would say the range will be 27-31. If it is going to get cut that range will be correspondingly reduced. Just the way Im thinking about it.
Ps. Thanks for a good article. Im long AMTG, ARR, WMC.
Numbers Don't Lie - Why The Economy Is Not Good [View article]
You don't know what a fascist is. A fascist supports total central control. That is not a republican, or better yet a conservative ideal.
Total government control is extreme left. We are moving in that direction now with the democrats and liberals wanting to run everything from Washington.
No government at all is extreme right or libertarian.
Liberals move to the left of center conservatives move right. Fascism is on the left where the democrats are not on the right with the republicans.
Don't Get Suckered By This Popular High-Yield Investment [View article]
I liked the editors note. Many that have invested in the mREITS are in the same situation. I have experienced 100% return of original investment on my mREITS.
Don't Panic: Survival Guide To Prospering With Mortgage REIT 12% Yields [View article]
Take a look at the ETFs if you want some evidence in support of the basket theory. The last three months look good.
Replace American Capital After Dismal Earnings? What I'm Doing With The Stock Now [View article]
They are in the same position with their MBS portfolios as many of us are with our investment in them.
I think dividends are safe for now. Thats why Im here. Im just going to ride it out. Every time you look at your mREIT portfolio remember to add back in unrealized losses!
mREITs During Q1: More Bad News, But A Few Winners Emerge [View article]
I think the markets are overstating the US risk. The rate, by world standards, is too high or high enough.
That tells me the 10 yr is oversold and things are going to snap back restoring some lost value.
18.4% Dividend Payer Western Asset Mortgage Disappoints - What's The Outlook? [View article]
I believe this is what you are referring too?
Will they adapt?
New Market Highs Are Easy To Handle [View article]
I really like the GE. Not only do we have a nice unrealized gain, we have seen its dividend go from .17 - .19. Even though its slighty behind AMTG in overall perfromance I think its the better investment. Would love some Chevron.
18.4% Dividend Payer Western Asset Mortgage Disappoints - What's The Outlook? [View article]
Its in a weaker position than AMTG. Im long both.
What worries me is WMC chart looks a lot like ARRs.
Im long, investing for dividends and watching my unrealized losses in this sector just like my mREIT fund managers are watching theirs.
There is downward pressure on the 10 yr bond yields today.
The mortgage REITs are lit up bright red (MORT -1.9%), again led by American Capital Agency (AGNC -3.5%) and American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -3%), with Annaly (NLY -3.1%) not far behind. Yes, the 10-year Treasury yield is a 3 bps higher, but there's also rare action in Fed Funds futures, now pricing in a whopping 50 bps in rate hikes by this time 2016. AGNC presents at the JMP Conference at 2 ET. [View news story]
mREITs During Q1: More Bad News, But A Few Winners Emerge [View article]
Chinese Housewives Buy All The Gold U.S. Money Managers Sell...And Then Some [View article]
More on American Capital Mortgage Investment (MTGE) Q1 earnings: Like sister company AGNC (also with Gary Kain as CIO), MTGE reports a big mark-to-market loss ($1.66/share) on agency MBS. Loss partially offset by $0.64 gain on non-agency holdings. Spread income of $0.62 - NIM of 2.01%, off 6 bps from Q4. Book value of $24.25/share, down 5.8% from Dec. 31. Shares -2.3% AH after 3.5% loss in regular session. (PR) [View news story]
More on American Capital Mortgage Investment (MTGE) Q1 earnings: Like sister company AGNC (also with Gary Kain as CIO), MTGE reports a big mark-to-market loss ($1.66/share) on agency MBS. Loss partially offset by $0.64 gain on non-agency holdings. Spread income of $0.62 - NIM of 2.01%, off 6 bps from Q4. Book value of $24.25/share, down 5.8% from Dec. 31. Shares -2.3% AH after 3.5% loss in regular session. (PR) [View news story]
American Capital Agency Corp.'s Earnings Disaster - A Warning Of Things To Come? [View article]
Ps. Thanks for a good article. Im long AMTG, ARR, WMC.
Numbers Don't Lie - Why The Economy Is Not Good [View article]
Total government control is extreme left. We are moving in that direction now with the democrats and liberals wanting to run everything from Washington.
No government at all is extreme right or libertarian.
Liberals move to the left of center conservatives move right. Fascism is on the left where the democrats are not on the right with the republicans.
Don't Get Suckered By This Popular High-Yield Investment [View article]
Mortgage REIT Investors Should Ignore Regulatory Static From Washington [View article]