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Ducaticorse

Ducaticorse
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  • American Capital Agency: Impact Of Last Week's Fed Statement On Its MBS Portfolio [View article]
    Impressive work. Thanks.
    Jun 25 08:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Think It's A Level Playing Field In The Financial Sector? Think Again [View article]
    Interesting.
    Jun 25 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Estate - The Next 6 Months [View article]
    It's not really possible to judge monetary policy as an outsider but I personally think that we just kicked the can down the road. Furthermore, it's clear that his MP favored certain groups of people to the detriment of others. All this whilst there is plenty enough of capital available to sustain this type of growth. However, I'll give it to him that he was clear about his intentions and actions. You just had to follow (that's if you could). I have nightmares thinking about dealing with this situation under Greenspan mumbling about exuberance and conondrums. As to sooooo much worse, who knows? Maybe, today, we'd have a clean slate and healthy growth ahead of us if we'd have let things run like they should in a free economy. But that's impossible to prove.
    Jun 25 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Estate - The Next 6 Months [View article]
    "You don't pay you lose the house, you can't pay and the banks won't give you the money...it was always thus."
    What??!!? Are you crazy down there? (just kidding).
    Jun 25 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Nuclear is the only way.
    Jun 25 08:27 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    He's innocent. You want proof? His lawyer says so.
    Jun 25 08:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Investors Be Scared Witless? [View article]
    There are still several risks looming. The change at the head of the FED should not be underestimated. I'm really afraid of the clash of egos. By the way, Bernanke was a great chief. I don't know about monetary policy but his communication was great. You just had to follow instructions and ride the wave. Second, don't underestimate the gloom in emerging markets. There is a good chart in sober look.com that shows the trend in US exports to EMs. The trend is clearly down and that doesn't bode well for the CATs in this country. Finally if you like high interest rates, go to China. Or is it too high?
    Jun 21 09:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Inflation Predictions Weren't Just Wrong, Many Of Them Are Hurting People [View article]
    Hyperinflation could have happened. It didn't fortunately. What the fed haters didn't catch is the huge amount of productive assets that are idle. Just look at this very impressive graph that compares debt growth in the US to GDP growth during the last 30 years.
    Jun 21 09:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Revert To Common Sense [View article]
    Words of wisdom.
    Jun 21 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital Joins The Club, Armour Is The Odd One Out [View article]
    I reduced my position but I agree with you; lower rates meant panic because of shrinking spreads and now that we have higher rates, it means panic because of shrinking book value. The fact is that you have to enter these stocks at the peak of the rate cycle and ride it down. However, I would like to be able to guess these changes (by not listening to B. Gross for instance). That's too much of a feat for me so I diversify.
    Jun 21 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Not Read This If You Thought The Economy Was Improving [View article]
    Neither Reagan nor Obama can be credited with these outcomes. Under Reagan the biggest credit expansion started together with the blossoming of the baby boomer generation. Obama arrived at the end of the cycle. Policies could help at the margin but they are not the main force.
    Jun 11 11:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ISM Drops Into Contraction Territory [View article]
    The problem with you theory is that the FED doesn't give money to the mechanic and the stylist, it gives it to the banks. Banks don't care about mechanics (their Mercedes never fail) or stylist (they already have their own). They put the money in precious wood plantations in Indonesia because they think about changing their hardwood floor. But that's only the "idee du jour". Tomorrow, it may be solar panels in China. Just when the mechanic and stylist caught up with the precious wood mania and decided to allocate what's left of his/her 401K into this sure bet.
    Jun 5 01:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Quantitative Beatings Will Continue Until The Economy Improves [View article]
    I don't quite agree with the argument that lower IR favor the new comer. In my view it's the opposite; lower IR favor the holder of debt. For the sake of simplification an asset producing a CF of 100 in perpetuity is worth 2,000 when the IR is 5%. If the IR drops to 3%, this asset will be worth 3,333. The new comer will have to borrow 3,333 to acquire this asset when the holder of the debt just has to refinance 2,000 by pledging an asset worth 3,333. How will get the loan?
    Jun 5 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    I think the core of the problem lies in the fact that housing was taken away from the CPI (and replaced with renter's equivalent). This destroyed any signals people and markets could have used.
    Jun 4 09:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Euro Area: Rising Risk Of Bank Failures [View article]
    I took this new as bullish. They are preparing the opinion for more QE; let's panic them a little bit and then come to the absolutely necessary rescue.
    Jun 1 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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