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Ducaticorse

Ducaticorse
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  • Why The 'Mean Reversion' Focus Can Be A Costly Blunder [View article]
    Jeff relentlessly calls for an improving economy for some times now and there is always a number of people coming with facts and figures proving the contrary. Moreover, it's fairly easy to find end of the world topics all over the bloggosphere.
    But one must understand that money is made when the economy improves at the margin not when everything is going obviously well. Then, it's too late. That's why I encourage you to observe these "green shoots" when possible.
    Feb 20 03:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The 'Mean Reversion' Focus Can Be A Costly Blunder [View article]
    I'll trust you on that because I lend on GOOG; do I feel lucky punk?
    Feb 20 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Italy: The New 'Powder Keg' Of Europe [View article]
    Also Italy's household net worth is pretty high. It's close to USD 100,000. Much higher than US's household net worth.
    However, the author has a very salient point. Because when government goes bust, everybody is taken away with it; they confiscate.
    Feb 20 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Italy: The New 'Powder Keg' Of Europe [View article]
    And pot is not even legal anymore.
    Feb 20 01:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Italy: The New 'Powder Keg' Of Europe [View article]
    And still, as read above, 70% of them want to keep the EUR! Go figure.
    Feb 20 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Italy: The New 'Powder Keg' Of Europe [View article]
    If Italians bonds have a supranational guarantee, other countries in difficulty may have to pay more to finance themselves. Albeit, it could also turn out that if Italy gets a guarantee, the market may think that other countries will de facto get one and they could also see a drop in interest rates. If it was easy we'd be all rich.
    Feb 20 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Final Warning Before Earnings [View article]
    I will not touch that stock with a ten foot pole. Not long, not short. If I had extra money I'd buy a put and a call. Because one thing is almost certain, it's going to shake.
    Feb 19 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Gold Miners Have Topped Out [View article]
    It's not if "in check" is right or wrong that matters. It's the expectation that "in check" is right or wrong that matters. You may be right that nothing is really solved but as long as people think or are sold on the topic of improvement and "new morning America", risk on the trade du jour.
    Feb 18 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Why This Stock Is Undervalued And Should Be Owned By Every Investor [View article]
    I don't know but the price actions is really bad and me already escaping FRO miraculously I'm wary of this guy. I cut my position by half. Why not sell all? Because the whole sector is in shamble. What's SDRL specific is difficult to assess. Results are next week, I'll reassess then.
    Feb 18 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Estate Stress Test [View article]
    Yes they collect interest and the FED's profit is then paid to the Treasury and the Treasury uses this money to pay the interest on the MBS! That's why they call it QE.
    The problem for the FED is that if they stop buying MBSs or TBonds, there is less demand for MBS, prices drop and they'll make a loss on the sale of the MBS or TBond. Why should they sell them, they could keep them until maturity? Yes, but the FED's balance sheet is huge. They are kind of out of ammo if another crisis erupts. That's why they will try to reduce their balance sheet in order to be ready for the next crisis.
    Feb 17 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Estate Stress Test [View article]
    Sure you can blame the weather; it was too hot to go house shopping.
    Feb 17 06:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Correction Over? [View article]
    Jeff, glad to see your Felix back into bullish mode and I'm going to check the Kirk report.
    There is one thing I find ugly for the future. You show two charts; U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Retail Sales. Do you notice the long term trend of lower highs and lower lows?
    And yes, this Hulbert "Crash of 29" chart on the Wall Street Journal site where it was published first is borderline wacko.
    Feb 16 01:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Banks And China: 'Interesting Times' Are Coming [View article]
    That sounds like; this time it's different. Or; it's eyeballs that count not profits. Or; they don't make new land. Or; it's the great moderation, we beat the economic cycle.
    But I agree that there is some leeway for the Chinese government to intervene and I don't expect problems very soon.
    Feb 15 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Cash On The Sidelines Myth Lives On [View article]
    Your policy is good only if there is outright deflation, which I doubt because "They" will do everything to avert that. Diversify, also diversify geographically and enjoy the dividends and interests. Don't let your money sit in the bank because they gamble it on the markets anyway and you get nothing out of it but the tail end of the risk.
    Feb 14 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Cash On The Sidelines Myth Lives On [View article]
    If it's nonsense and dishonest please come with an other explanation (that shouldn't be too difficult to find, there is a strong correlation between butter consumption in Pakistan and the SP500, really).
    Anyway, the graphical relation (I will not call correlation) between monetary stimuli and the stock market performance is difficult to ignore and profitable since March 2009.
    Feb 14 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
859 Comments
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