oriocookie

Why Financials Will Underperform 2010-2015

financials go as the economy goes and usually fare better ... the issue is if their valuations are correct ... my guess is that some banks will expand into BIRC countries and will show decent growth in assets ... some that screwed up will not ... so choose the ones thqat have healthy cap rations profen mamagement (ie management doesnt put bonuses ahead of long term share value) and rest assured they will do well .. i know of 4 such banks .. for a small fee i will tell you :)

Consumer-Driven Deflation? Not Even Close

well .. the terms have become synonymous simply because rising prices are a consequences of too much money chasing too few real goods....doesn't matter how öld"the money is or what "type"it is. bernacke bought long term bonds so as to counter the illiquid "toxic"assets - ie credit that shrank in value ... so he didnt really increase the money supply by as much as people want to think ... and when the economy "stablilizes - ie home prices, jobs hit bottom he will sell lt bonds for cash and both shrink the money supply and raise interest rates ... for those who wonder why gold and commodities are going up think of the word bubble or at best an expectation that there will be too much money around chasing too few goods .. ie the fed wil screw up .... and please dont tell me that the professionals know best or watch the commodities .. the same idiots that caused this mess are now focusing their brainpower in commodiditties .. unfortunately some fool will go for it.


On Dec 02 09:44 AM hat_trick3 wrote:

> the gentleman below nailed it.
>
> All I would add to it is the OTTI of real estate assets-to the tune
> of several trillion dollars is the greatest deflationary driver at
> the moment. How exactly we can "print" our way out of this deflationary
> spiral is nonsense.
> So tell us, how exactly are we going to put the tens of thousands,
> or hundreds of thousands of dollars back in peopes household net
> worth?
> Unless I'm about to receive a 200k check for the OTTI on my house
> and another 500k on my investments, I'm just not sure how if I am
> fairly representative of the investor class, we're suddenly going
> to have rampant inflation.

Government Should Use Tax Policy to Fight Unemployment

very reasonable and astute question .... seems to me the labor force needs to change as opposed to changing the rules (ie higher import taxs, duties etc) to keep it the same ... seen the "buy local by prohibiting imports" in some way movie in EU .. doesnt really change much in the loong run.... just makes you uncompeititve


On Jul 05 03:09 PM User 376970 wrote:

> About the one thing I agree with is your statement "the devil is
> in the details."
> As a employer I start out reading this article and ask myself a question.
> Half way through I ask the same question. At the end and while reading
> other comments I ask the same question. "...how am I going to put/keep
> these people to work..." Unless your plan enables me to compete with
> the overseas supplier who just took a order from my customer with
> a price at about one third of what I can do to just breakeven this
> is all meaningless/useless. Is this going to produce a working class
> society that earns even a minimum wage of $7.00hr that can compete
> with one that earns .50hr. All the blabber and banter in the finiacial/economic
> circles skate the issue that given the type and scope of the current
> economic situation the notion of a job unrelated "recovery" is brain
> unrelated. People can not pay mortgages, buy cars, etc. without income.
> "Where has our personal income gone. (Jobs)" "How do we get them
> back." Until the current regime of economic and finacial pundits
> ask those two question in that idiot fashion, and take it all from
> there everything else will become a fortune telling contest of the
> ramifications of the US adjusting to third world poverty for a significant
> portion of it's population.

Government Should Use Tax Policy to Fight Unemployment

it would seem to me that there's a limit to what we can consume. Exceeding that limit leads to the rpesent situation. we can't all be wealthy we can't all have 3 cars and live in two houses and fly a private jet .... so no matter how much stimulus there is out there unless we understand that there is such a thing as sustainable growth (as ooposed to cancerous growth) and that there is a check and balance in the golbal economic system all we will do is postpone the inevitable - sustainable growth - with possibly dire economic consequences ....