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  • Cisco: An Undervalued Dividend Gem  [View article]
    Article number 500 or so in the last 15 years saying that Cisco is "undervalued." Still stuck in its range with a brief trip to $30 last year. Great, two people say they bought it in 1995. For everyone else, you could make an argument for buying it for the dividend, I would probably do that. But calling it undervalued again and again and again and again seems like people haven't been following it very closely for very long. It's not undervalued. Or it's the most misunderstood stock on the planet for 15 years running. Facebook's Open Compute project is a major threat to Cisco. Major. Those who are using it love it and love Facebook's vision. Dividend? Fine. Undervalued? Maybe a broken clock isn't always right twice a day.
    Jan 27, 2016. 04:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple -7%; FQ3 gross margin tops guidance, China sales a strong point  [View news story]
    Best product designers in the world. It's not a commodity. That Android crap is a commodity. It's horrid. If I never have to use another Android or Windows device in my lifetime, I will be very happy. It's not even close.
    Jul 21, 2015. 08:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple -7%; FQ3 gross margin tops guidance, China sales a strong point  [View news story]
    Let's hope it holds $120 after that guidance. Buybacks alone can't support the share price. It had to happen sometime. I wanted to sell before earnings but didn't want to generate short term cap gains as I repurchased it last fall. It's a wash now but it's going to hurt if it breaks down below $115 which is probably better than 50/50 at this point. I think $110 might is in play.
    Jul 21, 2015. 08:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco: Don't Expect A 'Microsoft-Type Revival' Without John Chambers  [View article]
    Chicken Little? Did he say CSCO was going to collapse with the new CEO coming in? Did he say that the company was in trouble? Did you read the article or just the headline/title? It was pretty neutral overall. And how can John "Dead Money" Chambers leaving be construed as the sky is falling anyway? He's had a year of outperforming the S&P just now and the last 15 years of grossly under performing it. The last year has been an outlier besides the early years when he was in the right place at the right time. Good riddance - he's been getting rich with shareholder's money way too long.
    May 10, 2015. 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Earnings Preview: Either Growth Or CEO Change - Something Has To Give  [View article]
    I don't judge anyone by his or her marital status or record. Too many people claim to be Christians and turn out to be murderers or war mongers (see Catholic Church and George Bush) and I know and know of plenty of people who have been married to the same people forever who have had affairs or whatever. That's a very old fashioned way of judging someone. I am not married and it's not a statement of my morality or lack thereof. I've done charity work and fed people in many poor corners of the world. I would never judge anyone based on marital status. You've brought it up twice now. Bizarre. Larry Ellison is no Saint, I don't think I implied, inferred, suggested, and certainly didn't say that. OK, how about Steve Wozniak? Is that better or is his marital status not satisfactory? I'm talking about taking some risk and having some skin in the game.

    John Chambers was very successful in sales at Wang and other places. Yes, he backed into his success at Cisco. Steve Jobs was transformational at Apple and the company never would have had the same success with his his visionary leadership. I don't buy the argument that you couldn't have dropped 100s of other people into the CEO job at Cisco in the late 90's and they would have been just as successful. And certainly the last 15 years has been dead money and I think the CEO should be accountable. You obviously don't agree with CEO accountability. Different philosophies I guess. But I have followed CSCO as close as anyone for the past 15 years. I mostly liquidated today and I won't be back. But I have studied this company closely.

    So what about Tim Cook? He's gay. Does that mean he's not a paragon of virtue?

    Bill Clinton messed around with an intern. Best president in my lifetime. George Bush claims to be a Christian and has been married to the same woman his whole adult life. He lied to the entire planet and sent 6000 US military personnel on a suicide mission that accomplished nothing but giving al Qaeda a base of operations.

    You may be focusing on the wrong things.
    Nov 12, 2014. 05:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Earnings Preview: Either Growth Or CEO Change - Something Has To Give  [View article]
    I think he's done an awful job with disastrous acquisitions that people seem to forget about and missed opportunities in cloud and SDN (like letting VMW buy Nicira). The list goes on and on. He considers himself from the "party of personal responsibility" and yet gives himself raises through a board that he controls following miserable failure after miserable failure. The company has been profitable in spite of him, not because of him. He backed into his success by taking over just before the dot com bubble. I don't know how a flat lining stock for over a decade for regular shareholders and a billion dollars for himself can be considered ok by anyone. It's just beyond me. Larry Ellison founded Oracle. He took a risk. Used his own money. John Chambers has never put anything on the line. Not a nickel. Not a penny. It's disgusting that someone can get a billion dollars (give or take) of risk-less returns. It has nothing to do with capitalism or free markets but in fact undermines both. Pulling himself up by his bootstraps doesn't excuse anyone from trampling on people who are working and saving for retirement. It represents everything that is wrong with the current business and financial system. And I'm one of the lucky ones. I've worked hard and saved but I, unlike people like John Chambers, want others to have the same opportunity. People talk about redistribution of wealth. Capitalism in a system where everyone plays by the same rules is the greatest wealth redistribution mechanism in history. "Capitalism" the way guys like this abuse it, is called an oligarchy.
    Nov 12, 2014. 01:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Earnings Preview: Either Growth Or CEO Change - Something Has To Give  [View article]
    Chambers is awful. The way he has run Cisco is a disgrace and borders on unethical the way he has used older options exercises to pay for his newer options grants so he can buy stock with regular shareholders' money. Never bought one share with his own money and reads from the same script every earnings release.

    "that' a stupid, childish view of him"

    Just because you don't agree with someone, doesn't make them stupid or childish, especially when it is based on something like a decade or more of underperformance (i.e. a solid foundation in logic). Only an ideologue thinks that other peoples' knowledge based opinions are stupid or childish because they don't like people who make decisions based on information since an ideologue forms his opinions based on....well, nothing. Don't mistake information with ideology. Not the same thing.

    For instance, a stupid and childish and very unsophisticated opinion would be to take the work of almost every scientist on the planet and say that it's invalid, not because you have more knowledge but because it doesn't fit your very narrow world view. I'm sure even you would agree that these right wing wackos who don't believe climate science are stupid and childish, right? I mean, what is less sophisticated than that? But we think these wackos are stupid and childish because we know that science isn't something you "believe" in. You either prove it of disprove it. With information.

    So go ahead, give us the reasons he's not a horrible CEO instead of spewing your ideology.

    Good luck, I've seen your work before. You only attack people, you never attack the argument. That's what ideologues do.
    Nov 12, 2014. 01:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stalwart Cisco Isn't Worth The Risk - Sell It  [View article]
    None of the insiders has ever bought one share of CSCO stock with his or her own money. Not one share. Not one. As in zero. So everything is net selling. Every time. Every share. They (including Chambers) get huge options grants that they exercise with money from past grants that they sell. Then they use regular shareholder's money to buy back stock. It doesn't matter what the actual numbers are or if the author had an inaccuracy. It's immaterial. All insiders are net sellers all of the time and on a permanent basis. That's all you need to know.
    Nov 5, 2014. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Pullback Presents An Opportunity  [View article]
    One more time, in English. There is no grey area. YOU said that we PREDICTED a $17 price for the stock. I did not. He did not. I did not. He did not. I did not. He did NOT. Nobody, not one person, not I, not Vik, EVER projected, predicted, prognosticated a $17 price. Never. Not once. Not even implied. Nothing in what I said, nothing in his words said that we thought the price was going to $17. Are you starting to get it? Can you read ALL of the words?

    Again, here is his quote "$17 or under would be an opportunity, not at these levels."

    "Would be" as in hypothetically, if the price went to $17, it would be a good entry point.

    Now, if he said, "the stock is going to $17 and at that point I will buy it" then you could say there was a prediction and I agreed with it. If Google went to $300 I would buy it too. Nowhere in that statement am I saying that it is going to that price but it WOULD be a great entry point.

    Again, I agreed that a $17 price WOULD BE a good entry point and the reason was because of an earnings decline. I didn't ask for a cut and paste as proof of my support for Vik. Again, never not once. He didn't predict a 26% decline and I didn't support it. You still don't even understand the point at all.
    Oct 23, 2014. 12:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Pullback Presents An Opportunity  [View article]
    Never once did Vik project a price of $17 ("$17 or under WOULD BE a good opportunity") and never once did I back him up or agree with him on a price projection. It was not a projection. It was a statement that a level like $17 would be a good entry point, and where the stock was trading when the article was published was not a good entry point. As I had to explain to Rich, I was saying that I thought that yes, a good reason to be bearish on the stock was because of impending sales decline based on what I had been told. You have both COMPLETELY missed the point. Nobody projected a $17 stock price. Nobody agreed with that projection. But at least two people have very low reading comprehension.

    As with everything, you take all of the information and decide what you agree with or want to believe. That's it. End of story. Read what I said, then comment. I even clearly acknowledged that it was purely anecdotal. What more do you want?

    What you should have said was "Rich erroneously called Shorty out because he didn't understand Shorty's comment."
    Oct 15, 2014. 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Pullback Presents An Opportunity  [View article]
    I didn't, for one second, say that I was supporting his 26% decline thesis. Not once. Did I? Can you copy and paste that part of what I said? I can't find it. Weird. You need to read more carefully. All of the words. And sometimes you need to be able to analyze the meaning of things without them being explained to you (it's call inferring). But apparently I have to. Now go read it again - I was supporting his statement that the stock is not a buy now but perhaps would be at a lower level. Even he didn't predict a fall to $17, just that it would be a buy. Then I agreed with the view that the reasoning would be because of an earnings decline and cited a very reliable source who gave me information about what he is experiencing.

    This is a forum where mostly AMATEUR investors like you and me exchange information. Like everything here or any other investing site, you can take what people say and agree with it or disregard it. I'm passing along what a top salesperson at a top reseller is telling me. I'm trying to give people something from the front lines. Just quoting someone. I've got better things to do than to go around making up stories about companies.

    Ideology is not an investing strategy, Rich. You've given us nothing. You haven't even countered what I have said except to say that I am an idiot. So give us something to chew on.

    Tomorrow? I think you've got the wrong company here. CSCO doesn't report until next month. At least you have some credibility - you're only off by three weeks. But please report back to us "tomorrow" after earnings. Pass the ketchup.
    Oct 15, 2014. 01:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Pullback Presents An Opportunity  [View article]
    I think Vik is correct and it is because of an impending significant earnings decline. My information is strictly anecdotal but my good friend who works for one of Cisco's leading and long standing channel partners told me that they can't give Cisco gear away. He said sales have tanked so badly that the company is taking back commission and margin from resellers to pad their quarters. Not only does this point out the desperation of the company but it doesn't exactly make people excited to sell your products. The company is suffering a backlash from customers who don't want to pay for the most expensive equipment on the market AND from the people selling it who are tired of being jerked around by the company (they're notorious for that). He asked me if I still owned any stock. When I said yes, he made the plane crashing into the ground gesture with his hand, complete with explosion sound effect. Obviously you have to take something like this at face value. But my buddy has been selling this stuff for a long time and I am at least considering it as one point when making my investment decisions.
    Oct 14, 2014. 07:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Pullback Presents An Opportunity  [View article]
    I agree that CSCO presents an opportunity as it has for a long time. An opportunity to be stuck in a price range of the high teens to somewhere around $26. seemingly forever. Why anyone would buy this stock instead of an S&P 500 index or similar fund is beyond me. So glad I did just that in 2010 when I rolled out of this perennially broken stock. Nice dividend, nothing else to see here. Going nowhere for the foreseeable future. Tread carefully.
    Oct 14, 2014. 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cisco Shares Are Undervalued By 35%  [View article]
    That is the worst question anyone ever asks on this site (asking why someone doesn't own a stock) - implying that someone has to own every stock that they have a positive opinion or write an article about. It's a misinformed question. You understand that owning a stock and having an opinion on it are two different and totally unrelated things, don't you? Not related. Not at all. Not in any manner. Zero correlation.
    Oct 7, 2014. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco: Not The Best Idea In Big Cap Tech  [View article]
    I know more about Cisco, the technology, the direction of technology, the CEO, the promises he has made, the buzzwords he has inserted into every earnings call for 15 years, and the stock performance than you or anyone you know. So yes, I know quite a bit. As a seven-year Cisco employee and a very experienced investor and technology expert (a couple things you are not), I could shred you to pieces on any piece of information or history of the company or it's horrible, lying CEO. Business ethics are business ethics, whether from a banker or a CEO who controls a board that is supposed to be independent and gives himself giant raises for accomplishing nothing vs the potential of the company. So please, by all means, educate me on his accomplishments and Cisco the company. But please read transcripts from earnings calls and see all of the things that he has promised that have never happened (and he repeats them over and over). Be sure to also check the buyback history (horrendous) vs options issuance, read up on the acquisitions of Cerent, Pure Digital, Scientific Atlanta, (and many others) so you can make a fact based argument for your points instead of a cop out "take your meds" argument. The kind used when there are no facts to support your position. His record speaks for itself but to someone like you who has been following the stock for two years or whatever, you simply have no idea. So do your homework before calling people out who know more than you.
    Sep 29, 2014. 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment