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getshorty

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  • Cisco Pullback Presents An Opportunity [View article]
    Never once did Vik project a price of $17 ("$17 or under WOULD BE a good opportunity") and never once did I back him up or agree with him on a price projection. It was not a projection. It was a statement that a level like $17 would be a good entry point, and where the stock was trading when the article was published was not a good entry point. As I had to explain to Rich, I was saying that I thought that yes, a good reason to be bearish on the stock was because of impending sales decline based on what I had been told. You have both COMPLETELY missed the point. Nobody projected a $17 stock price. Nobody agreed with that projection. But at least two people have very low reading comprehension.

    As with everything, you take all of the information and decide what you agree with or want to believe. That's it. End of story. Read what I said, then comment. I even clearly acknowledged that it was purely anecdotal. What more do you want?

    What you should have said was "Rich erroneously called Shorty out because he didn't understand Shorty's comment."
    Oct 15 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Pullback Presents An Opportunity [View article]
    I didn't, for one second, say that I was supporting his 26% decline thesis. Not once. Did I? Can you copy and paste that part of what I said? I can't find it. Weird. You need to read more carefully. All of the words. And sometimes you need to be able to analyze the meaning of things without them being explained to you (it's call inferring). But apparently I have to. Now go read it again - I was supporting his statement that the stock is not a buy now but perhaps would be at a lower level. Even he didn't predict a fall to $17, just that it would be a buy. Then I agreed with the view that the reasoning would be because of an earnings decline and cited a very reliable source who gave me information about what he is experiencing.

    This is a forum where mostly AMATEUR investors like you and me exchange information. Like everything here or any other investing site, you can take what people say and agree with it or disregard it. I'm passing along what a top salesperson at a top reseller is telling me. I'm trying to give people something from the front lines. Just quoting someone. I've got better things to do than to go around making up stories about companies.

    Ideology is not an investing strategy, Rich. You've given us nothing. You haven't even countered what I have said except to say that I am an idiot. So give us something to chew on.

    Tomorrow? I think you've got the wrong company here. CSCO doesn't report until next month. At least you have some credibility - you're only off by three weeks. But please report back to us "tomorrow" after earnings. Pass the ketchup.
    Oct 15 01:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Pullback Presents An Opportunity [View article]
    I think Vik is correct and it is because of an impending significant earnings decline. My information is strictly anecdotal but my good friend who works for one of Cisco's leading and long standing channel partners told me that they can't give Cisco gear away. He said sales have tanked so badly that the company is taking back commission and margin from resellers to pad their quarters. Not only does this point out the desperation of the company but it doesn't exactly make people excited to sell your products. The company is suffering a backlash from customers who don't want to pay for the most expensive equipment on the market AND from the people selling it who are tired of being jerked around by the company (they're notorious for that). He asked me if I still owned any stock. When I said yes, he made the plane crashing into the ground gesture with his hand, complete with explosion sound effect. Obviously you have to take something like this at face value. But my buddy has been selling this stuff for a long time and I am at least considering it as one point when making my investment decisions.
    Oct 14 07:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Pullback Presents An Opportunity [View article]
    I agree that CSCO presents an opportunity as it has for a long time. An opportunity to be stuck in a price range of the high teens to somewhere around $26. seemingly forever. Why anyone would buy this stock instead of an S&P 500 index or similar fund is beyond me. So glad I did just that in 2010 when I rolled out of this perennially broken stock. Nice dividend, nothing else to see here. Going nowhere for the foreseeable future. Tread carefully.
    Oct 14 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cisco Shares Are Undervalued By 35% [View article]
    That is the worst question anyone ever asks on this site (asking why someone doesn't own a stock) - implying that someone has to own every stock that they have a positive opinion or write an article about. It's a misinformed question. You understand that owning a stock and having an opinion on it are two different and totally unrelated things, don't you? Not related. Not at all. Not in any manner. Zero correlation.
    Oct 7 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco: Not The Best Idea In Big Cap Tech [View article]
    I know more about Cisco, the technology, the direction of technology, the CEO, the promises he has made, the buzzwords he has inserted into every earnings call for 15 years, and the stock performance than you or anyone you know. So yes, I know quite a bit. As a seven-year Cisco employee and a very experienced investor and technology expert (a couple things you are not), I could shred you to pieces on any piece of information or history of the company or it's horrible, lying CEO. Business ethics are business ethics, whether from a banker or a CEO who controls a board that is supposed to be independent and gives himself giant raises for accomplishing nothing vs the potential of the company. So please, by all means, educate me on his accomplishments and Cisco the company. But please read transcripts from earnings calls and see all of the things that he has promised that have never happened (and he repeats them over and over). Be sure to also check the buyback history (horrendous) vs options issuance, read up on the acquisitions of Cerent, Pure Digital, Scientific Atlanta, (and many others) so you can make a fact based argument for your points instead of a cop out "take your meds" argument. The kind used when there are no facts to support your position. His record speaks for itself but to someone like you who has been following the stock for two years or whatever, you simply have no idea. So do your homework before calling people out who know more than you.
    Sep 29 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco: Not The Best Idea In Big Cap Tech [View article]
    Not pulling the wool over anyone's eyes? That narcissist egomaniac Chambers has been pulling the wool over everyone's eyes for over a decade. I think paying yourself a disgusting amount of money, never buying one share of your company's stock with your own money, performing buybacks only to soak up options dilution while your stock perpetually underperforms the market is the most vile and corrupt kind of "leadership" in corporate America. No bankers are in jail for the financial crisis and this guy is running a giant corporation as his own ATM with impunity. They're one in the same. You can pull that wool up now.
    Sep 26 02:24 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cisco Shares Are Undervalued By 35% [View article]
    I think what you meant to say was "Cisco has the financial reserves to make a few MORE stumbles along the way..."

    This company has already had more than it's share of "stumbles" and several outright disasters. John Chambers is the most overpaid executive in corporate America and has been for at least a decade (if performance matters at all). Sales are falling of a cliff again. This next quarter is going to be another one that sneaks up on holders of the stock and offers up a nasty surprise.
    Sep 23 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Integrated Infrastructure, And Not UCS Servers, Will Save Cisco [View article]
    Good analysis. I keep reading that the VMware/EMC partnership with Cisco is in serious doubt with VMW buying Nicira and the companies stepping on each other's toes all over the place. If that's the case, a good part of your thesis goes out the window. Do you have any insights there?

    As a side note, a friend of mine who works for one of Cisco's biggest resellers told me that sales of their gear aren't just declining, they're cratering. His words were "the plane is about to crash into the side of a mountain, I would sell every share." I don't take stock tips from anyone really but it's food for thought, the guy is on the front lines.
    Sep 4 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco: A Discounted Stock And Solid Dividend Play For Income Investors [View article]
    I guess my only issue is that you can take a calendar from the last ten years and throw a dart at a random date and someone was saying that CSCO was "cheap" or "undervalued." The number of times that has been written on Seeking Alpha alone would make it either the most perpetually undervalued or misunderstood stock of all time. Perpetual undervaluation, without looking at any technical indicators or valuation metrics, tells me that something is just terribly wrong with stock and/or the underlying company. Something is badly broken if the market continues to assign the incorrect value to the shares. Or the market is correct. Something is wrong in both scenarios. Either way it seems like it will remain for the foreseeable future what it has been for 15 years - dead money. It certainly seems to be dead money until there is some major catalyst. Of course I said the same thing about Microsoft when it was in the $20's.
    Aug 28 01:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco: A Discounted Stock And Solid Dividend Play For Income Investors [View article]
    I suppose you time every call on every stock at the perfect moment. Which is why you retired a long time ago. How about adding some value here? Give us your five picks for the next 12 months. Let's see how you fare.
    Aug 28 01:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Reasons Why A New Global Financial Crisis Could Be On The Way [View article]
    The author writes a thoughtful piece and as predicted, the right wingers come out with their ideological retort that contains nothing of consequence. More of the same.

    The happiest people in the most stable countries are in Socialist countries (Denmark, Sweden, Norway etc). Weird. I'm a free market guy and all of my wealth is in the stock market but know the world isn't quite as black and white as your narrow world view would like it to be.

    The US Supreme Court, Citizens United, and people like Koch Brothers are selling everyone out and people like you just lap it up. It's amazing how easily duped people are by the CONSERVATIVE media in this country. So duped as to call it liberal even. Amazing.
    Aug 23 05:46 PM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Reasons Why A New Global Financial Crisis Could Be On The Way [View article]
    Well said. You can't have a large percentage of your population locked out of even the thought of participating in upward mobility as we have now, like no other time in our history. When 1% of your population controls 99% of your wealth, they can start pulling strings (like using the military to impose martial law in an extreme case) at the first hint of the populace storming the castle. The reason we have been able to maintain the stability in this country that we have enjoyed is because the resources have been shared fairly equally among the general population because we have employed the greatest wealth distribution vehicle in history - something called capitalism. Now we have Citizens United which is the single biggest threat to our country and mobility for those on the lower rungs of society than anything we have ever seen. We have an extreme right wing Supreme Court who have continually legislated from the bench and are working hard with things like Citizens United to keep and consolidate a grip on power to the least equality-minded and oligarchic sector of our society. A successful market economy isn't one where a handful of people get rich and lock everyone else out but rather one where everyone plays by the same rules and those rules are enforced by a truly independent judiciary.
    Aug 23 05:40 PM | 29 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sleep Well At Night With These 5 REIT CEOs Behind The Wheel [View article]
    I'm edging my exposure up. With your comments in mind, do you think that the risk to REIT share prices from rising interest rates is overblown/overstated? Every time there is talk of a rate rise, the financial press seems to get all worked up about the effect it will have on REIT share prices. I think that's what happened to O in the spring of last year.
    Aug 20 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco: Buying Opportunity In A Good Yielding Stock [View article]
    If I had a dollar for every time someone called CSCO "cheap" over the last 7-10 years......perennial underperformer, stuck in a decade long trading range, with the same overpaid (by the board he controls) delusional egomaniac running the company. He won't leave. He just won't leave. He refuses, and holds back the company and its stock in the process. Sold a bunch of it in 2010 and bought a bunch of the IVV (S&P 500 index ETF) and wish I had liquidated all of it and done the same. So now we'll watch it get up around $26 and change, fail to get through that price in a meaningful ful way, and go back to $18-ish. Over 2-4 years, it will grind back towards that $26 level, and if John Chambers is still in charge, he will tell us how they see changes in their industry several quarters before their competition and make the necessary changes and that they're going to be the #1 IT company and several of their competitors won't be around in five years and........
    Aug 19 10:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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