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  • Why Integrated Infrastructure, And Not UCS Servers, Will Save Cisco [View article]
    Good analysis. I keep reading that the VMware/EMC partnership with Cisco is in serious doubt with VMW buying Nicira and the companies stepping on each other's toes all over the place. If that's the case, a good part of your thesis goes out the window. Do you have any insights there?

    As a side note, a friend of mine who works for one of Cisco's biggest resellers told me that sales of their gear aren't just declining, they're cratering. His words were "the plane is about to crash into the side of a mountain, I would sell every share." I don't take stock tips from anyone really but it's food for thought, the guy is on the front lines.
    Sep 4 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco: A Discounted Stock And Solid Dividend Play For Income Investors [View article]
    I guess my only issue is that you can take a calendar from the last ten years and throw a dart at a random date and someone was saying that CSCO was "cheap" or "undervalued." The number of times that has been written on Seeking Alpha alone would make it either the most perpetually undervalued or misunderstood stock of all time. Perpetual undervaluation, without looking at any technical indicators or valuation metrics, tells me that something is just terribly wrong with stock and/or the underlying company. Something is badly broken if the market continues to assign the incorrect value to the shares. Or the market is correct. Something is wrong in both scenarios. Either way it seems like it will remain for the foreseeable future what it has been for 15 years - dead money. It certainly seems to be dead money until there is some major catalyst. Of course I said the same thing about Microsoft when it was in the $20's.
    Aug 28 01:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco: A Discounted Stock And Solid Dividend Play For Income Investors [View article]
    I suppose you time every call on every stock at the perfect moment. Which is why you retired a long time ago. How about adding some value here? Give us your five picks for the next 12 months. Let's see how you fare.
    Aug 28 01:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Reasons Why A New Global Financial Crisis Could Be On The Way [View article]
    The author writes a thoughtful piece and as predicted, the right wingers come out with their ideological retort that contains nothing of consequence. More of the same.

    The happiest people in the most stable countries are in Socialist countries (Denmark, Sweden, Norway etc). Weird. I'm a free market guy and all of my wealth is in the stock market but know the world isn't quite as black and white as your narrow world view would like it to be.

    The US Supreme Court, Citizens United, and people like Koch Brothers are selling everyone out and people like you just lap it up. It's amazing how easily duped people are by the CONSERVATIVE media in this country. So duped as to call it liberal even. Amazing.
    Aug 23 05:46 PM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Reasons Why A New Global Financial Crisis Could Be On The Way [View article]
    Well said. You can't have a large percentage of your population locked out of even the thought of participating in upward mobility as we have now, like no other time in our history. When 1% of your population controls 99% of your wealth, they can start pulling strings (like using the military to impose martial law in an extreme case) at the first hint of the populace storming the castle. The reason we have been able to maintain the stability in this country that we have enjoyed is because the resources have been shared fairly equally among the general population because we have employed the greatest wealth distribution vehicle in history - something called capitalism. Now we have Citizens United which is the single biggest threat to our country and mobility for those on the lower rungs of society than anything we have ever seen. We have an extreme right wing Supreme Court who have continually legislated from the bench and are working hard with things like Citizens United to keep and consolidate a grip on power to the least equality-minded and oligarchic sector of our society. A successful market economy isn't one where a handful of people get rich and lock everyone else out but rather one where everyone plays by the same rules and those rules are enforced by a truly independent judiciary.
    Aug 23 05:40 PM | 29 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sleep Well At Night With These 5 REIT CEOs Behind The Wheel [View article]
    I'm edging my exposure up. With your comments in mind, do you think that the risk to REIT share prices from rising interest rates is overblown/overstated? Every time there is talk of a rate rise, the financial press seems to get all worked up about the effect it will have on REIT share prices. I think that's what happened to O in the spring of last year.
    Aug 20 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco: Buying Opportunity In A Good Yielding Stock [View article]
    If I had a dollar for every time someone called CSCO "cheap" over the last 7-10 years......perennial underperformer, stuck in a decade long trading range, with the same overpaid (by the board he controls) delusional egomaniac running the company. He won't leave. He just won't leave. He refuses, and holds back the company and its stock in the process. Sold a bunch of it in 2010 and bought a bunch of the IVV (S&P 500 index ETF) and wish I had liquidated all of it and done the same. So now we'll watch it get up around $26 and change, fail to get through that price in a meaningful ful way, and go back to $18-ish. Over 2-4 years, it will grind back towards that $26 level, and if John Chambers is still in charge, he will tell us how they see changes in their industry several quarters before their competition and make the necessary changes and that they're going to be the #1 IT company and several of their competitors won't be around in five years and........
    Aug 19 10:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sleep Well At Night With These 5 REIT CEOs Behind The Wheel [View article]
    Hi Brad, have you ever disclosed (do you disclose) what portion of your personal (or firm/client) portfolio is actually invested in REITs? Just curious, I've got about 5% REITs and 2% MLPs but didn't know if this was something that you divulged. Thanks.
    Aug 19 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Dump Cisco And Buy Juniper [View article]
    While I don't agree with his investment thesis on Cisco vs Juniper (I know, of course not after JNPR's quarter) but I have to take strong issue with not holding the leader of the company responsible for the stock's horrendous under performance for over a decade. If it's not his fault for buying Flip and killing it, overpaying for Scientific Atlantic, the idiotic Umi personal telepresence and betting too big on telepresence in genera (and on and on and on) then who's fault is it? The answer lies squarely with John Chambers who gave himself huge raises and bought jets with shareholder money while destroying shareholder wealth left and right. He represents everything that is wrong with corporate America and how boards of directors are set up where there are not independent but run by the CEO who is the Chairman. You're dead wrong about accountability. Saying it's not his fault is like saying that Steve Jobs deserves no credit for the success of Apple. It's just an inverse argument. And preposterous.
    Jul 25 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Heading Toward All-Time High On Strong Cloud Momentum [View article]
    I read a couple summaries of the earnings but cloud wasn't broken out. But unless something has changed recently, cloud revenue is tiny as a percentage of total revenue. And the margins are close to zero. Amazon (AWS), Google (NYSEARCA:GCE), and Microsoft (Azure) are in a race to the bottom for pricing. At least for the hosting. There must be some value added services that go along with the cloud services that make it worthwhile because the cloud service itself makes almost no money. But it's all anyone is talking about with these earnings. I don't get it.
    Jul 22 09:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Dump Cisco And Buy Juniper [View article]
    I hate to pile on but I read these articles for something new, an angle that I haven't considered. The fact that Chambers has been there a long time and the stock has underperformed is not exactly breaking news. And if you have followed the company for any period at all, you know that JC has been telegraphing his retirement for a while, going so far as to say a couple years ago that the board had asked him to stay for a couple years. We may get this announcement as soon as next month.
    Jul 22 12:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco: The Chambers Clock Is Starting [View article]
    You talk of a "massive restructuring" but what is your source? And please don't tell me it's Brad Reese. That's the only place I've seen anything about this so-called restructuring. Is there a legitimate news outlet that is talking about this happening (WSJ, Barron's, analysts, etc)?
    Jun 12 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Needs To Pace Things Up Before It's Too Late [View article]
    Agreed - plenty of things to worry about with CSCO, paying the dividend isn't even on the radar.
    May 19 06:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cisco Is Heading To $32 [View article]
    Fortunately, I am person who takes all sides in any argument and makes my decision after the fact - it's called not being ideological. Even people that I generally disagree with make good points once a while. Herb says a lot of things, the inventory issue is just one interesting point as I am someone with deep understanding of the industry and worked for Cisco when they had their last big inventory write down. So there is some historical precedent here, in spite of your ranting. A measured, well informed, balanced analysis of the company and not an ideological rant would tell an investor that this has happened before an it caught everyone by surprise. I love how people read into one citation of guy to mean that you believe everything he says. Take your xanax dude. Just a well informed successful investor taking time out to comment on something he found interesting. Good luck shorting everything he's bullish on and going long everything he's bearish on. Great strategy.
    May 17 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cisco Is Heading To $32 [View article]
    I think Herb Greenberg's take is something to at least take notice of with all of the deferred income (in other words, product that is sitting at distributors and not sold). You also have to consider who is still running the company, one of the worst CEOs in American business history. Certainly the worst at any major tech company today. Just horrid really and good for a 10% discount on the stock. That being said, at the very least, I've been saying for a while that I thought the downside risk for the stock is pretty limited and I would reiterate that. You could say the stock may go to $32 but you buy this stock for the dividend and dividend growth based on management's promise to return 50% of free cash flow to investors, all of which they are well positioned to do. Growth has not returned in a meaningful way and I don't think it ever will. Buy it for the yield and take any capital appreciation as a bonus. That's about it.
    May 15 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment