Guero

Pulte: Government Is the Only (Lending) Game in Town

Yeah that's the point exactly! Without the gubmint, NO ONE is getting funding, EVEN GOOD CREDIT RISKS! FHA, VA, Fannie, Freddie.....THESE are the only types of loans getting through these days.

What's your solution? Let everything grind to a freakin' halt? Real smooth solution there, the economy is in the crapper thanks to 8 years of failed econ policy....but at least we stuck to our free market guns! Just make sure your powder's dry & plenty of bottled water/canned goods. Sheesh.


On Feb 09 05:46 PM Socialism cannot compete! wrote:

> [quote]
> Yeah, so much for "evil socialists." The gubbmint's the only lender
> in town right now.
> [end quote]
>
> Um, that's kinda the point -- *smart* lenders don't wanna lend to
> certain (unprofitable) companies right now. Why should tax dollars
> be used in those cases -- that means the government is losing money
> on the deal. If there was money to be made, private dollars would
> be going into those businesses. We MUST let capitalism work!!

Pulte: Government Is the Only (Lending) Game in Town

Yeah, so much for "evil socialists." The gubbmint's the only lender in town right now.

The other point that might interest anyone following homebuilders: Pulte is very proud of the fact they are able to steer 92% of their buyers through their in-house mortgage operation. The other builders try like hell to reach 92% retention. Mortgage is an important profit center for the large production builders. And Pulte wholly owns their mortgage company, similar to Centex.

There are others (ex:KBH) that have joint ventures set up with outside firms. In KBH's case it is Countrywide. That means a loss of control & a loss of profits, and possibly getting a bit bloodied if your JV partner is being chewed up in the press.

Centex: Do We Have an Uptrend Yet?

Writing a sales contract is one thing, getting a loan approval in this environment is something totally different. I'll start believing again when today's sales start becoming tomorrow's closings. The number to watch is the cancellation rate.

A Sign That Housing Is Approaching Bottom

What's the foreclosure rate? That is the number to look at. All the inventory involved in these distress sales is being replenished monthly with "fresh blood", i.e. newly foreclosed homes. Not to mention the already-foreclosed homes not yet in inventory...PLUS short-sales, which is also a distressed sale.

Oh, and JOBS!

How to Take Advantage of the Booming Real Estate Market. Yes, Booming

I stand corrected.

How to Take Advantage of the Booming Real Estate Market. Yes, Booming

Hmmm, interesting article. I don't think this scheme would work here in central TX, there aren't entire streets filled with unfinished houses on which this plan could be executed.

And I don't know if this means anything, but on a lark I Googled "David Fessler" & "Orlando Fla" to see if I might get a sniff on what this "specialty" telecommunications business might be that his friend is cleaning up on, and turns out that this article is cross-posted on at least a half-dozen other sites. It did have the feel of spam.

Conference Call Highlights: Bank Investors Should Worry about Private Homebuilders

Creative destruction happening before our very eyes. Here in TX a large part of the economy revolves around new housing construction, and it will be interesting, if not horrifying, to watch what gets pulled down with the homebuilders. Sub-contractors, builders supply, window & door manufacturers, cabinet manufacturers, flooring retailers, mortgage shops, title companies.....the list can go long.

Conference Call Highlights: Who Will Buy Land?

Yes, too many single family homes are being built. That is the result of a production homebuilder's business model. They can't help themselves, they have to build a lot of homes to achieve economies of scale worthwhile enough to be a going concern. Very much like a virus, they take over the landscape.

Merrill's Rosenberg on Real Estate

Force housing starts to zero...very interesting proposal. Probably needs to be seriously considered.

Home builders are already holding out their hands for their piece of the bailout pie, they will absolutely scream bloody murder if we try something like this. Donnie Ray Horton would not go down easily.

Downside For KB Homes Not Necessarily Priced In

KBH is probably beat down as far as it will go. They don't have excessive land positions, especially developed lots, and a good cash balance to weather 2009. A significantly smaller footprint in one of the nation's better housing markets in Central TX is not a good sign, however.

Personal Responsibility and the Housing Bubble

Hey what did Billy Mays ever do to you? Magic Putty was a technological breakthrough!

Working for a homebuilder, I had a front-row seat to the breakdown of personal responsibility. Our in-house mortgage company would turn someone down, they would come back with a loan commitment from a mortgage chop-shop. If you are in the business of selling housing and someone comes in "approved" for a loan, you have to be very careful to whom & when you try to say "no." Only when we started requiring several thousand dollars additional deposit on deals like this did most of the hi-jinks stop. By then it was too late, the damage was done.

Canadian Real Estate Slows Inexorably- Part III

This is a guess but the Canadian housing market probably benefits from the lack of speculative bubble hell-holes like Vegas, Phoenix, Central CA and Miami. Not sure if they allowed subprime also.