mlonz

Get Ready for $35 Billion More in Handouts

Hey EEB:

You are very sympathetic. I suppose you have offered some space in your home, some food from your pantry, and a hot shower to temporarily help out a few of the unfortunate.

Gold: Who's Left to Buy?

I would welcome a pullback in Gold, Silver and Junior Miners so I can get some more, With an emphasis on the latter 2.

Housing Bottom - Oh Really?

There are places in Texas where prices are still below 1980 levels.

Barrick Takes Massive $5.6B Charge to End Gold Hedge

I have liked gold, and silver even more, but this is a classic topping event. PM and commodity producers in general are notorious for not hedging at the top and putting on hedges at lower prices. I would consider this news bearish, sorry.

Back to School? Where?

I was in home depot Monday @ 10 am. Ghost town.

Time to Buy American Real Estate?

Residential RE will bottom when the average 30 yr fixed is 8%.

'Experts' Claim 2M Jobs Created in August: I'm Skeptical

The only way to be heard is to go on strike. Those small business owners that can afford to do so should close up shop for a small period of time, and starve the beast. I realize not everyone can do this, but an organized small business strike would make people notice.

Inflation Ahead

Inflation will happen, but the inflation trade is in the process of having the final wash out right now and over the fall. Lot of commodity stocks have already doubled and tripled. Should sell to buy back much lower. Just look @ TBT chart, it doesnt say inflation.

Inflation: It's a Crowded Trade

I agree, I had the big inflation play going, and it did great, but it hasnt done anything in the last 2+ months. PPI was down big, inflation is just not there, and it doesnt look like its right around the corner either.

Step Two of a Housing Bottom?

One factor no-one talks about it city hall. Compared to 8 or 10 years ago, construction was efficient and streamlined. Your typical handy man could renovate a small house all by himself without anyone bothering him.

Now, you cant install simple things like a new window or recessed lighting without the building inspectors knocking down your door, and the workers comp people coming over to shake you down.

The bloated local governments have destroyed the home-owners ability to add value to a property via red tape.

This has been a shadow weight on the market from before the peak.

Property Values - Eight Key Charts

In addition to principal and interest, you need to factor in property taxes, utilities, maintenance, insurance, and tax write-off benefits as well. This will dampen affordability slightly.

Inflation vs. Deflation: A Matter of Money Supply and Demand

I was big time in the inflation camp. The deflationists are starting to make a lot of sense, and im nervous about my PM holdings.

But the deflationists are only right if washington sits back and does nothing and lets it all happen. Unfortunately, they will do everything in their power to inflate the problems away. It is their only way out of the social security nightmare. If you think it looks bad now, think about it after a 10 year period of deflation. They will not let it happen.

Here's how its going to play out. Major shakeout once again in the fall leading to a nice clean double bottom with the March Lows. The government smartly uses this panic to issue an astounding number of 10-20-30 year bonds.

Government then issues some ridiculous programs dwarfing the stimulus and TARP program of the year before, probably cash for clunkers with houses or just send everyone a check to stop the market free fall (We all know they are not just going to let the DOW go to 3000)

Deflation defeated

Inflation initiated

All the bonds the government recently issued, and anything under 4% immediately become worth 50% of their value.

As far as the govt is concerned, problem solved.

A Granular Look at the Stratified U.S. Consumer

The poor are way better off than the middle class. They get free housing, food, cell phones, healthcare, transport, etc...Ive seen it all with my own eyes. I wonder why they all have 52 inch TV's in their apartments.

Time to Take Profits?

Agreed, you can check out Prechter on weekend bloomberg. He makes great points about bullish/bearish sentiment indicators and Tops/bottoms. I think we're going down but I will only be able to hold my shorts for 10% at best.

Unemployment: Historical Chart Sends Scary Message

When You get 92 weeks of unemployment, is it any wonder that people stay unemployed longer? 92 Weeks???? That is F@#$ing ridiculous.