tcal

An Opportunity for Patient Investors - Barron's

Where does Barron's obtain their earnings data? S&P shows "as reported" earnings for the 4 quarters ending June 2008 of $51.68. (google sp500epsest.xls)

Crazy P/E Ratios

google ie_data.xls

Crazy P/E Ratios

for Shiller's data, google search: "ie_data.xls"

Analysts' Forward-Looking Estimates: Just Plain Nuts

Why use operating earnings? S&P shows operating earnings for the 4-quarters ending June 2008 of 69.73, but "as reported" earnings of only $51.68. Might the lower as reported figure be more "real"? (google: SP500EPSEST.XLS)

Does the well-respected Prof. Shiller use the "as reported" number? (google: irrationalexuberance.c...

Crazy P/E Ratios

I suggest studying the S&P 500 price and earnings data at Robert Shiller's web-site, see irrationalexuberance.c... The data covers 1871 - 2008, and shows that as of 10/7/2008, the S&P 500 PE is ~16, near the historical average PE of ~16.

So despite the sharp decline in the S&P 500, we are only now near the historical average PE. Any thoughts? Is Shiller's data wrong/misleading?

*Note: Shiller used the average of ten-year trailing earnings when he calculates PE. Currently, average tr. 10 year earnings are ~61 and tr. one year earnings are approiximately 63.)

for the data, Google: ie_data.xls

www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data...

Fear, Panic & Opportunity in the Markets

Based on PE, is the S&P 500 cheap, or merely back to historically "average" PE?

based on Schiller's data, since 1881, statistics on the S&P 500 PE:
average, 1/1871-8/2008: 16.3
median, 1/1871-8/2008: 15.7

level as of 10/7/08, with S&P 500 near 996: 16.3

note: Schiller uses the trailing ten-year average earnings when he calculates the PE ratio

the series:
month PE
1881.01 18.47
1881.02 18.15
1881.03 18.27
1881.04 17.95
1881.05 18.87
1881.06 19.03
1881.07 18.12
1881.08 17.29
1881.09 16.72
1881.10 16.26
1881.11 16.48
1881.12 15.96
1882.01 15.68
1882.02 15.15
1882.03 15.09
1882.04 14.92
1882.05 14.57
1882.06 14.33
1882.07 15.24
1882.08 15.53
1882.09 16.08
1882.10 15.76
1882.11 15.19
1882.12 15.38
1883.01 15.27
1883.02 14.76
1883.03 15.05
1883.04 15.48
1883.05 15.34
1883.06 15.90
1883.07 15.95
1883.08 15.20
1883.09 15.49
1883.10 15.05
1883.11 15.41
1883.12 14.90
1884.01 14.43
1884.02 14.81
1884.03 14.74
1884.04 14.35
1884.05 13.47
1884.06 12.91
1884.07 13.04
1884.08 13.86
1884.09 13.57
1884.10 13.27
1884.11 13.30
1884.12 13.43
1885.01 13.13
1885.02 13.38
1885.03 13.73
1885.04 13.55
1885.05 13.71
1885.06 13.98
1885.07 14.33
1885.08 15.13
1885.09 15.12
1885.10 15.99
1885.11 16.82
1885.12 16.30
1886.01 16.69
1886.02 17.01
1886.03 16.84
1886.04 16.80
1886.05 16.86
1886.06 17.83
1886.07 17.85
1886.08 17.72
1886.09 18.15
1886.10 18.56
1886.11 18.97
1886.12 18.19
1887.01 17.51
1887.02 17.13
1887.03 17.47
1887.04 17.82
1887.05 18.08
1887.06 17.71
1887.07 17.43
1887.08 16.74
1887.09 16.68
1887.10 15.88
1887.11 15.95
1887.12 15.46
1888.01 15.36
1888.02 15.42
1888.03 14.81
1888.04 15.02
1888.05 15.39
1888.06 15.08
1888.07 15.28
1888.08 15.60
1888.09 15.99
1888.10 15.72
1888.11 15.22
1888.12 14.95
1889.01 15.80
1889.02 16.19
1889.03 16.07
1889.04 16.05
1889.05 16.92
1889.06 17.22
1889.07 16.89
1889.08 17.13
1889.09 17.35
1889.10 17.05
1889.11 16.91
1889.12 16.61
1890.01 17.22
1890.02 17.03
1890.03 16.90
1890.04 17.26
1890.05 17.79
1890.06 17.68
1890.07 17.59
1890.08 16.60
1890.09 16.17
1890.10 15.48
1890.11 14.75
1890.12 14.44
1891.01 15.43
1891.02 15.48
1891.03 15.05
1891.04 15.41
1891.05 15.57
1891.06 15.66
1891.07 15.62
1891.08 16.16
1891.09 17.71
1891.10 17.72
1891.11 17.67
1891.12 18.21
1892.01 19.02
1892.02 19.04
1892.03 19.74
1892.04 19.94
1892.05 19.91
1892.06 19.77
1892.07 19.21
1892.08 19.20
1892.09 18.69
1892.10 19.04
1892.11 18.46
1892.12 18.01
1893.01 17.66
1893.02 17.13
1893.03 16.90
1893.04 17.10
1893.05 15.78
1893.06 15.42
1893.07 14.35
1893.08 14.59
1893.09 15.01
1893.10 15.27
1893.11 15.94
1893.12 15.61
1894.01 15.74
1894.02 16.20
1894.03 17.19
1894.04 17.43
1894.05 16.81
1894.06 16.61
1894.07 16.29
1894.08 16.46
1894.09 16.52
1894.10 16.50
1894.11 16.54
1894.12 16.67
1895.01 16.52
1895.02 16.33
1895.03 16.36
1895.04 16.39
1895.05 17.08
1895.06 17.21
1895.07 17.55
1895.08 18.07
1895.09 18.20
1895.10 17.94
1895.11 17.34
1895.12 16.55
1896.01 16.58
1896.02 17.52
1896.03 17.23
1896.04 17.64
1896.05 17.83
1896.06 17.78
1896.07 16.64
1896.08 15.70
1896.09 16.54
1896.10 16.44
1896.11 17.09
1896.12 16.50
1897.01 17.03
1897.02 16.89
1897.03 16.96
1897.04 16.70
1897.05 17.05
1897.06 17.85
1897.07 18.65
1897.08 19.01
1897.09 19.37
1897.10 19.03
1897.11 18.36
1897.12 18.75
1898.01 19.25
1898.02 18.92
1898.03 18.04
1898.04 17.71
1898.05 17.60
1898.06 19.54
1898.07 19.86
1898.08 20.54
1898.09 20.44
1898.10 19.95
1898.11 20.53
1898.12 21.40
1899.01 22.93
1899.02 23.05
1899.03 23.28
1899.04 23.15
1899.05 22.09
1899.06 21.21
1899.07 21.56
1899.08 21.73
1899.09 20.59
1899.10 20.15
1899.11 20.20
1899.12 18.51
1900.01 18.67
1900.02 18.70
1900.03 18.78
1900.04 18.94
1900.05 18.40
1900.06 17.99
1900.07 17.69
1900.08 18.07
1900.09 17.34
1900.10 18.10
1900.11 19.42
1900.12 20.74
1901.01 20.98
1901.02 21.68
1901.03 22.35
1901.04 24.41
1901.05 23.06
1901.06 25.24
1901.07 23.14
1901.08 23.08
1901.09 22.59
1901.10 22.25
1901.11 22.38
1901.12 21.68
1902.01 22.34
1902.02 22.46
1902.03 22.41
1902.04 22.82
1902.05 22.43
1902.06 21.96
1902.07 22.39
1902.08 23.17
1902.09 22.86
1902.10 20.60
1902.11 20.41
1902.12 19.63
1903.01 20.32
1903.02 20.11
1903.03 19.88
1903.04 18.98
1903.05 18.95
1903.06 17.82
1903.07 16.92
1903.08 16.30
1903.09 15.65
1903.10 15.25
1903.11 15.41
1903.12 16.04
1904.01 15.86
1904.02 15.02
1904.03 15.08
1904.04 15.57
1904.05 15.53
1904.06 15.47
1904.07 16.04
1904.08 16.30
1904.09 16.74
1904.10 17.63
1904.11 18.08
1904.12 18.16
1905.01 18.46
1905.02 19.17
1905.03 19.83
1905.04 19.48
1905.05 18.63
1905.06 18.74
1905.07 19.21
1905.08 19.57
1905.09 19.74
1905.10 19.90
1905.11 19.44
1905.12 19.58
1906.01 20.13
1906.02 19.87
1906.03 19.26
1906.04 18.88
1906.05 18.05
1906.06 18.17
1906.07 18.20
1906.08 18.97
1906.09 19.20
1906.10 18.10
1906.11 18.14
1906.12 17.66
1907.01 17.22
1907.02 16.22
1907.03 14.69
1907.04 14.67
1907.05 13.79
1907.06 13.14
1907.07 13.59
1907.08 12.51
1907.09 12.33
1907.10 10.83
1907.11 10.59
1907.12 11.33
1908.01 11.90
1908.02 11.55
1908.03 11.98
1908.04 12.45
1908.05 13.08
1908.06 13.05
1908.07 13.35
1908.08 13.88
1908.09 13.70
1908.10 13.69
1908.11 14.44
1908.12 14.58
1909.01 14.76
1909.02 14.17
1909.03 14.34
1909.04 14.65
1909.05 14.95
1909.06 15.04
1909.07 15.23
1909.08 15.42
1909.09 15.25
1909.10 14.99
1909.11 14.75
1909.12 14.75
1910.01 14.55
1910.02 14.00
1910.03 14.05
1910.04 13.56
1910.05 13.57
1910.06 13.02
1910.07 12.34
1910.08 12.75
1910.09 12.94
1910.10 13.92
1910.11 14.16
1910.12 13.74
1911.01 14.05
1911.02 14.72
1911.03 14.37
1911.04 14.75
1911.05 15.05
1911.06 15.33
1911.07 15.08
1911.08 13.90
1911.09 13.00
1911.10 13.07
1911.11 13.73
1911.12 13.93
1912.01 13.79
1912.02 13.53
1912.03 13.64
1912.04 13.65
1912.05 13.65
1912.06 13.79
1912.07 13.80
1912.08 13.98
1912.09 13.93
1912.10 13.91
1912.11 13.75
1912.12 13.39
1913.01 13.15
1913.02 12.68
1913.03 12.44
1913.04 12.43
1913.05 12.22
1913.06 11.49
1913.07 11.53
1913.08 11.85
1913.09 11.84
1913.10 11.47
1913.11 11.07
1913.12 11.17
1914.01 11.64
1914.02 11.91
1914.03 11.69
1914.04 11.52
1914.05 11.48
1914.06 11.43
1914.07 10.69
1914.08 10.49
1914.09 10.50
1914.10 10.61
1914.11 10.52
1914.12 10.17
1915.01 10.36
1915.02 10.33
1915.03 10.71
1915.04 11.40
1915.05 11.03
1915.06 11.15
1915.07 11.11
1915.08 11.58
1915.09 12.01
1915.10 12.55
1915.11 12.86
1915.12 12.88
1916.01 12.54
1916.02 12.35
1916.03 12.18
1916.04 11.91
1916.05 12.03
1916.06 12.00
1916.07 11.79
1916.08 11.73
1916.09 11.94
1916.10 12.05
1916.11 12.05
1916.12 11.41
1917.01 10.99
1917.02 10.06
1917.03 10.33
1917.04 9.64
1917.05 9.14
1917.06 9.15
1917.07 9.00
1917.08 8.57
1917.09 7.95
1917.10 7.39
1917.11 6.75
1917.12 6.41
1918.01 6.64
1918.02 6.78
1918.03 6.69
1918.04 6.52
1918.05 6.58
1918.06 6.50
1918.07 6.37
1918.08 6.30
1918.09 6.15
1918.10 6.29
1918.11 6.33
1918.12 6.13
1919.01 6.10
1919.02 6.24
1919.03 6.36
1919.04 6.46
1919.05 6.83
1919.06 7.02
1919.07 7.05
1919.08 6.48
1919.09 6.56
1919.10 6.79
1919.11 6.47
1919.12 6.16
1920.01 5.99
1920.02 5.46
1920.03 5.80
1920.04 5.60
1920.05 5.19
1920.06 5.04
1920.07 5.08
1920.08 5.02
1920.09 5.30
1920.10 5.35
1920.11 5.13
1920.12 4.78
1921.01 5.12
1921.02 5.27
1921.03 5.19
1921.04 5.30
1921.05 5.61
1921.06 5.22
1921.07 5.20
1921.08 5.16
1921.09 5.38
1921.10 5.48
1921.11 5.84
1921.12 6.11
1922.01 6.29
1922.02 6.46
1922.03 6.82
1922.04 7.27
1922.05 7.59
1922.06 7.56
1922.07 7.60
1922.08 8.02
1922.09 8.27
1922.10 8.43
1922.11 8.00
1922.12 7.96
1923.01 8.15
1923.02 8.53
1923.03 8.70
1923.04 8.37
1923.05 8.00
1923.06 7.67
1923.07 7.35
1923.08 7.44
1923.09 7.46
1923.10 7.32
1923.11 7.55
1923.12 7.81
1924.01 8.07
1924.02 8.16
1924.03 8.06
1924.04 7.92
1924.05 7.90
1924.06 8.05
1924.07 8.38
1924.08 8.72
1924.09 8.58
1924.10 8.42
1924.11 8.89
1924.12 9.31
1925.01 9.69
1925.02 9.83
1925.03 9.52
1925.04 9.48
1925.05 9.73
1925.06 9.80
1925.07 9.96
1925.08 10.11
1925.09 10.36
1925.10 10.72
1925.11 10.89
1925.12 11.15
1926.01 11.34
1926.02 11.39
1926.03 10.71
1926.04 10.40
1926.05 10.58
1926.06 11.20
1926.07 11.87
1926.08 12.49
1926.09 12.69
1926.10 12.43
1926.11 12.62
1926.12 13.01
1927.01 13.19
1927.02 13.63
1927.03 14.03
1927.04 14.49
1927.05 15.00
1927.06 15.12
1927.07 15.82
1927.08 16.86
1927.09 17.82
1927.10 17.54
1927.11 18.13
1927.12 18.65
1928.01 18.81
1928.02 18.87
1928.03 19.94
1928.04 21.26
1928.05 21.83
1928.06 20.91
1928.07 21.08
1928.08 21.76
1928.09 23.00
1928.10 23.58
1928.11 25.12
1928.12 25.30
1929.01 27.08
1929.02 27.13
1929.03 27.68
1929.04 27.57
1929.05 27.70
1929.06 27.94
1929.07 29.93
1929.08 31.48
1929.09 32.56
1929.10 28.96
1929.11 21.17
1929.12 22.01
1930.01 22.31
1930.02 23.70
1930.03 24.59
1930.04 25.84
1930.05 24.31
1930.06 21.87
1930.07 21.55
1930.08 21.30
1930.09 21.07
1930.10 18.21
1930.11 16.94
1930.12 16.06
1931.01 16.71
1931.02 18.16
1931.03 18.58
1931.04 16.87
1931.05 15.40
1931.06 15.06
1931.07 15.52
1931.08 15.01
1931.09 12.82
1931.10 11.15
1931.11 11.42
1931.12 9.31
1932.01 9.31
1932.02 9.34
1932.03 9.41
1932.04 7.19
1932.05 6.39
1932.06 5.57
1932.07 5.84
1932.08 8.83
1932.09 9.76
1932.10 8.48
1932.11 8.46
1932.12 8.26
1933.01 8.73
1933.02 7.83
1933.03 7.87
1933.04 8.72
1933.05 11.25
1933.06 13.10
1933.07 13.75
1933.08 13.00
1933.09 12.92
1933.10 11.70
1933.11 12.01
1933.12 12.28
1934.01 13.03
1934.02 13.93
1934.03 13.25
1934.04 13.52
1934.05 12.18
1934.06 12.29
1934.07 11.74
1934.08 11.32
1934.09 10.91
1934.10 11.11
1934.11 11.45
1934.12 11.64
1935.01 11.50
1935.02 11.09
1935.03 10.40
1935.04 11.10
1935.05 11.99
1935.06 12.54
1935.07 13.20
1935.08 14.11
1935.09 14.42
1935.10 14.83
1935.11 16.13
1935.12 16.16
1936.01 17.09
1936.02 18.10
1936.03 18.66
1936.04 18.72
1936.05 17.75
1936.06 18.39
1936.07 19.36
1936.08 19.62
1936.09 19.86
1936.10 20.91
1936.11 21.50
1936.12 21.13
1937.01 21.62
1937.02 22.24
1937.03 22.04
1937.04 20.56
1937.05 19.47
1937.06 18.71
1937.07 19.65
1937.08 19.81
1937.09 16.85
1937.10 14.36
1937.11 13.16
1937.12 13.01
1938.01 13.51
1938.02 13.26
1938.03 12.38
1938.04 11.79
1938.05 11.99
1938.06 12.29
1938.07 14.77
1938.08 14.90
1938.09 14.28
1938.10 16.06
1938.11 16.15
1938.12 15.76
1939.01 15.60
1939.02 15.66
1939.03 15.73
1939.04 13.92
1939.05 14.50
1939.06 14.83
1939.07 15.27
1939.08 15.12
1939.09 16.45
1939.10 16.82
1939.11 16.60
1939.12 16.28
1940.01 16.38
1940.02 16.22
1940.03 16.17
1940.04 16.37
1940.05 14.14
1940.06 12.84
1940.07 13.37
1940.08 13.65
1940.09 14.21
1940.10 14.33
1940.11 14.64
1940.12 13.91
1941.01 13.90
1941.02 13.00
1941.03 12.96
1941.04 12.43
1941.05 12.04
1941.06 12.16
1941.07 12.74
1941.08 12.46
1941.09 12.28
1941.10 11.58
1941.11 10.91
1941.12 10.09
1942.01 10.10
1942.02 9.68
1942.03 9.00
1942.04 8.54
1942.05 8.51
1942.06 8.91
1942.07 9.15
1942.08 9.01
1942.09 9.08
1942.10 9.60
1942.11 9.66
1942.12 9.62
1943.01 10.15
1943.02 10.71
1943.03 10.85
1943.04 11.04
1943.05 11.36
1943.06 11.52
1943.07 11.77
1943.08 11.21
1943.09 11.34
1943.10 11.19
1943.11 10.63
1943.12 10.74
1944.01 11.05
1944.02 10.95
1944.03 11.22
1944.04 10.94
1944.05 11.10
1944.06 11.53
1944.07 11.74
1944.08 11.54
1944.09 11.33
1944.10 11.58
1944.11 11.48
1944.12 11.64
1945.01 11.96
1945.02 12.34
1945.03 12.32
1945.04 12.63
1945.05 13.04
1945.06 13.13
1945.07 12.87
1945.08 12.92
1945.09 13.80
1945.10 14.37
1945.11 14.85
1945.12 15.02
1946.01 15.62
1946.02 15.76
1946.03 15.13
1946.04 16.04
1946.05 16.01
1946.06 15.77
1946.07 14.51
1946.08 13.98
1946.09 11.84
1946.10 11.39
1946.11 11.11
1946.12 11.37
1947.01 11.47
1947.02 11.95
1947.03 11.29
1947.04 10.90
1947.05 10.73
1947.06 11.08
1947.07 11.70
1947.08 11.34
1947.09 10.83
1947.10 11.13
1947.11 10.98
1947.12 10.68
1948.01 10.42
1948.02 10.00
1948.03 10.19
1948.04 10.78
1948.05 11.24
1948.06 11.58
1948.07 11.13
1948.08 10.72
1948.09 10.55
1948.10 10.83
1948.11 10.25
1948.12 10.16
1949.01 10.25
1949.02 9.87
1949.03 9.90
1949.04 9.78
1949.05 9.69
1949.06 9.07
1949.07 9.61
1949.08 9.85
1949.09 9.88
1949.10 10.17
1949.11 10.22
1949.12 10.53
1950.01 10.75
1950.02 10.91
1950.03 10.91
1950.04 11.18
1950.05 11.46
1950.06 11.55
1950.07 10.54
1950.08 11.04
1950.09 11.34
1950.10 11.66
1950.11 11.54
1950.12 11.31
1951.01 11.90
1951.02 12.14
1951.03 11.84
1951.04 11.95
1951.05 11.86
1951.06 11.62
1951.07 11.78
1951.08 12.26
1951.09 12.44
1951.10 12.31
1951.11 11.85
1951.12 12.15
1952.01 12.53
1952.02 12.36
1952.03 12.36
1952.04 12.24
1952.05 12.20
1952.06 12.45
1952.07 12.67
1952.08 12.68
1952.09 12.43
1952.10 12.13
1952.11 12.47
1952.12 12.93
1953.01 13.01
1953.02 12.86
1953.03 12.83
1953.04 12.16
1953.05 12.14
1953.06 11.62
1953.07 11.75
1953.08 11.72
1953.09 11.14
1953.10 11.39
1953.11 11.64
1953.12 11.75
1954.01 12.00
1954.02 12.22
1954.03 12.42
1954.04 12.91
1954.05 13.31
1954.06 13.36
1954.07 13.83
1954.08 14.04
1954.09 14.36
1954.10 14.62
1954.11 15.12
1954.12 15.79
1955.01 15.99
1955.02 16.44
1955.03 16.22
1955.04 16.69
1955.05 16.52
1955.06 17.37
1955.07 18.45
1955.08 18.22
1955.09 18.84
1955.10 17.77
1955.11 18.84
1955.12 18.94
1956.01 18.29
1956.02 18.27
1956.03 19.37
1956.04 19.37
1956.05 18.54
1956.06 18.16
1956.07 18.86
1956.08 18.67
1956.09 17.84
1956.10 17.42
1956.11 17.12
1956.12 17.20
1957.01 16.72
1957.02 15.84
1957.03 15.90
1957.04 16.12
1957.05 16.60
1957.06 16.73
1957.07 16.87
1957.08 15.87
1957.09 15.16
1957.10 14.15
1957.11 13.74
1957.12 13.67
1958.01 13.79
1958.02 13.78
1958.03 13.93
1958.04 13.91
1958.05 14.32
1958.06 14.64
1958.07 14.96
1958.08 15.54
1958.09 15.93
1958.10 16.56
1958.11 16.99
1958.12 17.36
1959.01 17.98
1959.02 17.76
1959.03 18.20
1959.04 18.43
1959.05 18.69
1959.06 18.45
1959.07 19.09
1959.08 18.96
1959.09 18.12
1959.10 18.02
1959.11 18.07
1959.12 18.62
1960.01 18.34
1960.02 17.55
1960.03 17.29
1960.04 17.43
1960.05 17.26
1960.06 17.82
1960.07 17.38
1960.08 17.58
1960.09 17.05
1960.10 16.61
1960.11 17.15
1960.12 17.56
1961.01 18.47
1961.02 19.23
1961.03 19.84
1961.04 20.38
1961.05 20.60
1961.06 20.33
1961.07 20.15
1961.08 20.94
1961.09 20.71
1961.10 20.92
1961.11 21.86
1961.12 22.04
1962.01 21.20
1962.02 21.45
1962.03 21.44
1962.04 20.66
1962.05 19.09
1962.06 16.83
1962.07 17.14
1962.08 17.57
1962.09 17.32
1962.10 16.74
1962.11 17.85
1962.12 18.59
1963.01 19.26
1963.02 19.47
1963.03 19.29
1963.04 20.15
1963.05 20.51
1963.06 20.38
1963.07 19.97
1963.08 20.47
1963.09 20.96
1963.10 20.89
1963.11 20.72
1963.12 21.04
1964.01 21.63
1964.02 21.83
1964.03 22.17
1964.04 22.42
1964.05 22.57
1964.06 22.30
1964.07 22.98
1964.08 22.65
1964.09 22.89
1964.10 23.21
1964.11 23.23
1964.12 22.75
1965.01 23.27
1965.02 23.37
1965.03 23.25
1965.04 23.42
1965.05 23.71
1965.06 22.39
1965.07 22.30
1965.08 22.67
1965.09 23.37
1965.10 23.78
1965.11 23.93
1965.12 23.69
1966.01 24.06
1966.02 23.70
1966.03 22.61
1966.04 23.11
1966.05 21.85
1966.06 21.56
1966.07 21.38
1966.08 19.91
1966.09 19.16
1966.10 18.83
1966.11 19.71
1966.12 19.74
1967.01 20.43
1967.02 21.07
1967.03 21.44
1967.04 21.69
1967.05 21.95
1967.06 21.55
1967.07 21.80
1967.08 22.03
1967.09 22.22
1967.10 22.07
1967.11 21.26
1967.12 21.75
1968.01 21.51
1968.02 20.42
1968.03 19.93
1968.04 21.28
1968.05 21.63
1968.06 22.00
1968.07 21.75
1968.08 21.14
1968.09 21.68
1968.10 22.00
1968.11 22.20
1968.12 22.28
1969.01 21.19
1969.02 20.90
1969.03 20.20
1969.04 20.43
1969.05 20.97
1969.06 19.71
1969.07 18.68
1969.08 18.43
1969.09 18.40
1969.10 18.45
1969.11 18.44
1969.12 17.33
1970.01 17.09
1970.02 16.37
1970.03 16.53
1970.04 15.87
1970.05 13.98
1970.06 13.80
1970.07 13.73
1970.08 14.10
1970.09 14.84
1970.10 15.06
1970.11 14.95
1970.12 15.87
1971.01 16.46
1971.02 17.03
1971.03 17.40
1971.04 17.92
1971.05 17.56
1971.06 17.08
1971.07 16.89
1971.08 16.52
1971.09 16.86
1971.10 16.43
1971.11 15.64
1971.12 16.60
1972.01 17.26
1972.02 17.46
1972.03 17.81
1972.04 17.92
1972.05 17.66
1972.06 17.64
1972.07 17.40
1972.08 17.94
1972.09 17.61
1972.10 17.53
1972.11 18.34
1972.12 18.65
1973.01 18.71
1973.02 17.89
1973.03 17.41
1973.04 16.94
1973.05 16.31
1973.06 15.81
1973.07 15.89
1973.08 15.28
1973.09 15.48
1973.10 15.91
1973.11 14.65
1973.12 13.49
1974.01 13.53
1974.02 12.96
1974.03 13.31
1974.04 12.55
1974.05 12.00
1974.06 11.89
1974.07 10.39
1974.08 9.82
1974.09 8.68
1974.10 8.74
1974.11 8.95
1974.12 8.29
1975.01 8.92
1975.02 9.76
1975.03 10.16
1975.04 10.23
1975.05 10.82
1975.06 11.01
1975.07 10.90
1975.08 10.09
1975.09 9.92
1975.10 10.33
1975.11 10.44
1975.12 10.25
1976.01 11.19
1976.02 11.59
1976.03 11.63
1976.04 11.69
1976.05 11.53
1976.06 11.54
1976.07 11.76
1976.08 11.60
1976.09 11.81
1976.10 11.35
1976.11 11.25
1976.12 11.60
1977.01 11.44
1977.02 11.01
1977.03 10.90
1977.04 10.64
1977.05 10.55
1977.06 10.53
1977.07 10.57
1977.08 10.27
1977.09 10.07
1977.10 9.77
1977.11 9.77
1977.12 9.68
1978.01 9.24
1978.02 9.05
1978.03 8.95
1978.04 9.26
1978.05 9.63
1978.06 9.55
1978.07 9.43
1978.08 10.02
1978.09 9.94
1978.10 9.53
1978.11 8.93
1978.12 9.01
1979.01 9.26
1979.02 9.00
1979.03 9.07
1979.04 9.13
1979.05 8.79
1979.06 8.85
1979.07 8.83
1979.08 9.13
1979.09 9.11
1979.10 8.68
1979.11 8.52
1979.12 8.75
1980.01 8.85
1980.02 9.05
1980.03 8.08
1980.04 7.84
1980.05 8.10
1980.06 8.51
1980.07 8.88
1980.08 9.07
1980.09 9.20
1980.10 9.36
1980.11 9.65
1980.12 9.39
1981.01 9.26
1981.02 8.83
1981.03 9.08
1981.04 9.09
1981.05 8.82
1981.06 8.77
1981.07 8.45
1981.08 8.40
1981.09 7.58
1981.10 7.65
1981.11 7.81
1981.12 7.83
1982.01 7.39
1982.02 7.18
1982.03 6.95
1982.04 7.26
1982.05 7.19
1982.06 6.69
1982.07 6.64
1982.08 6.64
1982.09 7.40
1982.10 8.00
1982.11 8.35
1982.12 8.47
1983.01 8.76
1983.02 8.91
1983.03 9.23
1983.04 9.53
1983.05 9.87
1983.06 10.00
1983.07 10.01
1983.08 9.73
1983.09 9.98
1983.10 10.00
1983.11 9.85
1983.12 9.82
1984.01 9.89
1984.02 9.32
1984.03 9.33
1984.04 9.31
1984.05 9.23
1984.06 9.01
1984.07 8.87
1984.08 9.62
1984.09 9.69
1984.10 9.60
1984.11 9.69
1984.12 9.60
1985.01 10.00
1985.02 10.49
1985.03 10.37
1985.04 10.40
1985.05 10.61
1985.06 10.81
1985.07 11.00
1985.08 10.74
1985.09 10.47
1985.10 10.55
1985.11 11.16
1985.12 11.69
1986.01 11.72
1986.02 12.39
1986.03 13.19
1986.04 13.55
1986.05 13.56
1986.06 13.89
1986.07 13.62
1986.08 13.89
1986.09 13.47
1986.10 13.43
1986.11 13.87
1986.12 14.09
1987.01 14.92
1987.02 15.82
1987.03 16.43
1987.04 16.20
1987.05 16.16
1987.06 16.83
1987.07 17.31
1987.08 18.33
1987.09 17.68
1987.10 15.53
1987.11 13.59
1987.12 13.39
1988.01 13.90
1988.02 14.30
1988.03 14.67
1988.04 14.43
1988.05 14.03
1988.06 14.77
1988.07 14.61
1988.08 14.24
1988.09 14.37
1988.10 14.81
1988.11 14.45
1988.12 14.70
1989.01 15.09
1989.02 15.47
1989.03 15.30
1989.04 15.69
1989.05 16.19
1989.06 16.64
1989.07 17.01
1989.08 17.73
1989.09 17.71
1989.10 17.64
1989.11 17.24
1989.12 17.65
1990.01 17.05
1990.02 16.51
1990.03 16.83
1990.04 16.81
1990.05 17.39
1990.06 17.82
1990.07 17.75
1990.08 16.17
1990.09 15.30
1990.10 14.82
1990.11 15.19
1990.12 15.85
1991.01 15.61
1991.02 17.35
1991.03 17.82
1991.04 18.16
1991.05 18.04
1991.06 18.02
1991.07 18.10
1991.08 18.51
1991.09 18.36
1991.10 18.35
1991.11 18.29
1991.12 18.44
1992.01 19.77
1992.02 19.58
1992.03 19.28
1992.04 19.30
1992.05 19.66
1992.06 19.32
1992.07 19.62
1992.08 19.72
1992.09 19.71
1992.10 19.37
1992.11 19.83
1992.12 20.45
1993.01 20.32
1993.02 20.55
1993.03 20.86
1993.04 20.46
1993.05 20.52
1993.06 20.61
1993.07 20.57
1993.08 20.81
1993.09 20.99
1993.10 21.11
1993.11 21.04
1993.12 21.17
1994.01 21.41
1994.02 21.26
1994.03 20.83
1994.04 20.06
1994.05 20.20
1994.06 20.29
1994.07 20.07
1994.08 20.54
1994.09 20.58
1994.10 20.40
1994.11 20.21
1994.12 19.91
1995.01 20.22
1995.02 20.80
1995.03 21.15
1995.04 21.64
1995.05 22.20
1995.06 22.72
1995.07 23.38
1995.08 23.28
1995.09 23.95
1995.10 23.93
1995.11 24.35
1995.12 25.03
1996.01 24.76
1996.02 25.98
1996.03 25.63
1996.04 25.43
1996.05 25.81
1996.06 25.97
1996.07 24.86
1996.08 25.41
1996.09 25.68
1996.10 26.48
1996.11 27.59
1996.12 27.72
1997.01 28.33
1997.02 29.27
1997.03 28.80
1997.04 27.59
1997.05 29.93
1997.06 31.26
1997.07 32.77
1997.08 32.59
1997.09 32.67
1997.10 32.90
1997.11 32.34
1997.12 33.03
1998.01 32.86
1998.02 34.71
1998.03 36.30
1998.04 37.28
1998.05 36.96
1998.06 36.80
1998.07 38.26
1998.08 35.42
1998.09 33.53
1998.10 33.77
1998.11 37.37
1998.12 38.82
1999.01 40.58
1999.02 40.40
1999.03 41.36
1999.04 42.71
1999.05 42.56
1999.06 42.18
1999.07 43.83
1999.08 41.93
1999.09 41.32
1999.10 40.55
1999.11 43.21
1999.12 44.20
2000.01 43.77
2000.02 42.19
2000.03 43.22
2000.04 43.53
2000.05 41.97
2000.06 42.78
2000.07 42.76
2000.08 42.87
2000.09 41.90
2000.10 39.37
2000.11 38.78
2000.12 37.28
2001.01 36.98
2001.02 35.84
2001.03 32.33
2001.04 32.17
2001.05 34.08
2001.06 33.07
2001.07 32.16
2001.08 31.40
2001.09 27.67
2001.10 28.58
2001.11 30.01
2001.12 30.50
2002.01 30.28
2002.02 29.09
2002.03 30.29
2002.04 29.01
2002.05 28.13
2002.06 26.39
2002.07 23.46
2002.08 23.59
2002.09 22.36
2002.10 21.95
2002.11 23.34
2002.12 23.10
2003.01 22.89
2003.02 21.21
2003.03 21.31
2003.04 22.42
2003.05 23.59
2003.06 24.83
2003.07 24.86
2003.08 24.64
2003.09 25.24
2003.10 25.68
2003.11 25.94
2003.12 26.63
2004.01 27.65
2004.02 27.65
2004.03 26.88
2004.04 26.90
2004.05 25.90
2004.06 26.40
2004.07 25.69
2004.08 25.17
2004.09 25.66
2004.10 25.41
2004.11 26.46
2004.12 27.14
2005.01 26.58
2005.02 26.74
2005.03 26.33
2005.04 25.40
2005.05 25.64
2005.06 26.06
2005.07 26.28
2005.08 26.10
2005.09 25.72
2005.10 24.87
2005.11 25.92
2005.12 26.43
2006.01 26.46
2006.02 26.24
2006.03 26.32
2006.04 26.14
2006.05 25.64
2006.06 24.74
2006.07 24.69
2006.08 25.04
2006.09 25.63
2006.10 26.53
2006.11 26.92
2006.12 27.27
2007.01 27.20
2007.02 27.31
2007.03 26.22
2007.04 26.97
2007.05 27.54
2007.06 27.41
2007.07 27.40
2007.08 26.14
2007.09 26.72
2007.10 27.31
2007.11 25.72
2007.12 25.95
2008.01 24.01
2008.02 23.49
2008.03 22.60
2008.04 23.35
2008.05 23.68
2008.06 22.38
2008.07 20.74
2008.08 20.89
2008.09 16.25




source:www.irrationalexuberan.../

Fear, Panic & Opportunity in the Markets

What is the source/methodology behind the “consensus operating earnings estimates for S&P 500 earnings” of $104? Is operating earnings the best figure to use? Is $104 a reasonable estimate?

FYI:
Data available at Robert Schiller’s web-site shows approximately $60 in trailing actual earnings.
www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data...


Standard & Poors shows: $69 in actual trailing 4 qtr. (9/07-6/08) operating earnings, a $68 forecast for 2009 “top-down” operating earnings, and $104 for 2009 “bottoms-up” estimates.
www2.standardandpoors....

Given that actual earnings over the last 4-quarters are somewhere between $60 and $69, it seems to me that the $68 estimate is much more reasonable then the $104 estimate.

FYI, Schiller likes to use the trailing ten-year earnings when he calculates the S&P 500’s PE. Trailing ten-year S&P 500 earnings are near $60, putting the S&P 500 PE at ~ 16. This puts today’s PE near the average PE over the previous 130 years.

I highly suggest reading Schiller’s “Irrational exuberance”, and using the data found at:
www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data...