Crashnburn

Have We Reached Peak Oil?

What about ANWAR and all the US coastal reserves that are off-limits?

Have you ever looked at how much the price of gas at the pump is actually taxes. I have no data, but I think that if the taxes went away, and the subsidies went away, the price at the pump would be less.

I am long oil in the form of VGENX

Bill Gross' 'New Normal': Just the Same Old Normal After All

Historically, maybe 1/3rd of mutual funds outperform their benchmark indicies. This is not even taking survivorship bias into account. You can't identify the better managers a priori, and winners don't repeat.

Thus, trying to get alpha consistently from a manager is more a matter of luck than anything else.

Finally, study after study has shown that the lower a fund's expenses, the better its performance, in good times and bad.
The limit to reducing a fund's expense is the index fund; whether mutual fund, or ETF. Generally, the ETF will be cheaper.

I'll take my market returns, and enjoy doing better than 2/3rds of the managed funds in each of the asset classes I own by owning index funds.

Why I'm Skeptical About Asset Allocation

Yes, diversification works, except when you need it the most.
Yes, equities and fixed income investments fell in price during the financial armaggedon, but fixed income fell slower and less than equities.

This means that if you rebalanced as the equity/bond ratio got out of balance, you were still selling sort of high, and buying really low. Now that the market has risen significantly since the March 8 low, those who moved money from bonds to equities are better off than those who left thier investments alone.

I was mostly in cash from Sept to November, when I bought enough TIP shares to keep the reamaining cash in my accounts fully insured against loss. I made about 8% between the time I bought the bonds, and the time I sold the ones I sold (I still have TIP shares)

Instead of buying the actually commodities, I buy shares of the producers of those commodities. I get exposed to the stock market, and to the price of the commodities that way.

Golden Rule: Easy Oil Production Means Cheap Oil, Difficult Production Means Expensive Oil

Good article, mostly all good posts. What I take away is that as the price of oil goes up, it will naturally (without government intervention) start making alternative energy sources more economically viable.

Also, as more money is put into altenative energy (not government money, btw) there will be breakthroughs, discoveries, and developments that will make the alternative energy as cheap as oil was for most of the 20th century.

I have no idea what those breakthroughs, discoveries, and developments will be, though.

What Will Happen in the Aftermath of the Clunker Contest?

The Cash for Clunkers program sucked a lot of money out of the retail sector, and will continue to for as long as the car loans last, so I expect lower economic numbers for three to five years than we would have otherwise seen.

Also, the "clunkers" program sucked a lot of potential used cars out of the market place, so the remaining used cars could easily appreciate 5 or more percent because of the "Clunkers" program. This will suck even more money out of the retail sector. It will also slow the used car industry down because people will have to save longer to upgrade their current ride.

Thus, I conclude that the Cars for Clunkers program will slow the economic recovery, instead of speeding it up. Everything the US government does has unintended consequences, and this is not exception.

Understanding the 'Q' Recovery

I think its going to be an #8 shaped recovery. No matter where you start, you end up back where you started.

Sell Off Ahead? 25 Ways to Profit and Protect from a Stock Market Correction

I'm no expert, and lately my timing has been atrocious. Still, I'm almost 100% invested in the market, since late March, early April, and was out from Sept 8 until the above time frame.

I won't be at all surprised if the market pulls back significantly in Sept/October, mostly because about half the world's economy (Europe) shuts down completely in August. I don't know if I'll have the courage of my convictions.

Probably, the most I'll do will be to sell my excess weight in my diversified portfolio in late August, early Sept. I don't do options.

U.S. Markets Reach New Year High

I don't understand why prices on longer term Treasuries are going up, and yields down, if people are expecting higher inflation. I'd expect just the opposite,.

I own shares of the TIP ETF and its price is going up but I think that is because people are buying it as an inflation hedge.

TIPS Are Untested: What Happens When Inflation Takes Over?

I have a target weight of 10% TIPS in my portfolio. For the most part, fixed income instruments exist to store wealth, not make it, and to cushion against portfolio losses in down markets. So, in down markets you can draw down the fixed income portion to put into undervalued stocks and/or live on the draw down while waiting for stocks to rebound.

If you are going to have some of your money in fixed income, it seems to make sense to have some inflation protection built into it, as opposed to no inflation protection at all, even if the inflation numbers are fudged. TIPS have tge protection built in, while the other Treasuries do not.

Vanguard's Bogle: Buy and Hold Is Alive and Well

I agree with Ric Edelmann. Buy a diverse set of asset classes with low correlations in the form of index funds. On occaision, rebalance your portfolio so you buy low and sell high. Takes a lot of guesswork out of investing, and exploits market peaks and troughs.

U.S. Jobs Propaganda Gets More Desperate

"There are three kinds of lies:
Lies, damned lies, and statistics."

I believe there is a fourth kind of lie: "government statistics"!

Richelson: 100% Bond Allocation Is Appropriate

According to some calculations I've seen, the lowest volatility portfolio will be 80% bonds and 20% equities. Moving to 75/25 bonds and stocks gets you the same volatility of 100% bonds, with a greater return.

Housing Outlook: Real Estate Reality

Personal Experience. In 2003, I refinanced from a fixed 6-1/8 to a 5/1 4-3/8. In 2006, I got scared of the run-up in interest rates, so we refinance to a 6-1/4, 30 year fixed. As it turns out, we would have been fine not refinancing then. We closed last week on our re-fi to 4.875, 30 year fixed. We had to pay an extra 6K to bring the mortgage to 417K, but getting the lower rate was worth it. I don't see us ever fe-financing this home again, as I don't see rates going low enough to make refinancing again, ever.

Rising Number of Renters Could Spell Trouble for Consumer Price Index

My wife and I are looking for a home for my inlaws in Livernore, CA (a bedroom community for Silicon Valley and San Francisco). Home prices are about half of what they were 2 years ago.

Foreclosures are getting multiple bids; but short sales are going wanting. We have offers in on 2 short sales, but the banks are dragging their feet making a decision. That's probably why few offers are made on short sales.

We've been looking for about nine months in a fixed price range. As time goes by, better and better homes come into our price range.

Missing the Early Bull Market Can Be Costly

Warren Buffet says to be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. I think its time to be greedy because most of you are fearful. I am about 95% invested in a well diversified portfolio of ETFs, CEFs, and OEFs.