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Johan Luthor

Johan Luthor
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  • A Call On The European Car Industry: Long Peugeot, Short Fiat [View article]
    It looks like PSA's March registrations of new cars in Europe could be up +10% (adding official March data from PSA's national markets). TBC by ACEA in a couple of weeks time.

    In the official documents issued a few days for the capital raise, it is assumed that the European market would grow by 2% in 2014. Since PSA had planned to recapture some market share, the business plan then probably contains a +2% to +4% for PSA in 2014 (Europe).

    If registrations indeed were +10% in March, the first quarter would be somewhere +7% to +7,5%.

    Things are looking up for the next three quarters; the new models and new engines are popular and 4 new models are about to enter the market in the coming weeks. The French are back in buying PSA cars, which is a requirement.

    Conclusion; it is in my view probable that the European sales will grow by at least the double, probably more, in 2014 compared to what PSA though only three months ago. This has in my view not been integrated into the share price at this point.
    Apr 5 03:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Call On The European Car Industry: Long Peugeot, Short Fiat [View article]
    Registrations of new cars in France are up 15% for PSA in March. The new models are leading.
    Tavares has been reported (le Monde) to hold the view that the group should have positive cash "much earlier than 2016"
    Apr 1 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Call On The European Car Industry: Long Peugeot, Short Fiat [View article]
    Also worth pointing out that both Peugeot and Citroên are in the process of launching new models with new engines in pretty much all markets. New models began to arrive in 2012, intensified in 2013 and will culminate in 2014. Pretty much all new models have been hailed as successes, with the Peugeot 308 winning the award for best car.

    The brands are gradually winning new market share in China and winning back market share in Europe. But it will take time. Customers gradually have to warm up to the idea that a Peugeot 308 is as good as, if not better than, a VW Golf.

    But there is not doubt about being on the right track.
    Mar 25 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Call On The European Car Industry: Long Peugeot, Short Fiat [View article]
    I have been long on/off for a year. Manged to catch the up last year but essentially chose to stay out out after December due to the uncertainty surrounding the capital raise. Hence missed the +40% up this year.
    Now long again as of some days ago, for the same reasons mentioned in the article, pretty much.
    Peugeot/Citroën sales in Europe are up in 2014 but the French market has been poor (33% market share for Peugeot). Therefore more potential if/when the French economy begins to grow again. Today's French PMI numbers were a big step in the right direction.
    Should also be pointed out that approx. 20% of the stock is shorted, like in 2013 when the stock subsequently doubled. My bet is that this could happen again.
    Mar 24 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Car registrations higher in France during October [View news story]
    PSA just made +50% in Spain in October.
    Nov 4 11:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Car registrations higher in France during October [View news story]
    PSA will make +20% in France in November and December.
    Nov 4 07:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European automobile market: Beware of taking on the Germans [View news story]
    Yes I live in Europe.
    Ford and PSA are not stupid enough to copycat BMW etc.
    PSA is gradually going its own way, for instance with the DS series. All the new models are considered being at the level of, or better than, the VW rivals.
    As for the sales of PSA, wait for Q4 and Q1 2014.
    Oct 13 02:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European automobile market: Beware of taking on the Germans [View news story]
    Plain ztupid.
    Peugeot and Citroën are making +70% of their sales of their new models (2008, 308 and C4 Picasso) in the two highest trim level models.
    Europeans are buying fewer cars but paying more for each car. PSA is benefitting from this. Does not have to pretend to be BMW.
    And the new 308 is considered to be as good as the Golf, also by germans.
    Oct 12 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peugeot (PEUGF.PK) wins union backing to eliminate 6K jobs in France and close a plant near Paris. Earlier this week, police tussled with protestors outside the automaker's headquarters. [View news story]
    Total job cuts are 11.000 in total or some 17% of the French work force.
    Mar 19 08:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors (GM) won't sell Opel but will push ahead with "Drive 2022" - its ten-year plan to revive profitability to its European arm. A large factor in the initiative will be be to cut costs associated with the alliance between Opel and Peugeot (PEUGF.PK). [View news story]
    Splendid! If GM finally could get pro-active with its partners at Peugeot. For starters, buy Peugeots Hybrid Air system and use it across GM's markets.

    By the way, looking for some real up-side? Buy Peugeot stock. If GM/Opel depends on Peugot for the future, then the best buy is Peugeot stock which still is very cheap

    (I bought Peugeot July 12 on a 24 month horizon).
    Mar 7 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors (GM) won't sell Opel but will push ahead with "Drive 2022" - its ten-year plan to revive profitability to its European arm. A large factor in the initiative will be be to cut costs associated with the alliance between Opel and Peugeot (PEUGF.PK). [View news story]
    It would cost GM as much to quit Europe as the cumulated losses there over the past decade. Leaving Europe would mean leaving one of the world's largest markets to the competiotion.

    Turning the cooperation with Peugeot into a win-win (Opel/Peugeot/citroen European market share approx 18%) would do the trick. This will however take some time.
    Mar 7 08:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GM (GM) is working on an electric car that will have a range of up to 200 miles, CEO Dan Akerson said yesterday. "There will be breakthroughs in battery technology, they're on the horizon," Akerson said. This year, GM is bringing out a 75-80 mile EV version of the Chevrolet Spark. (See fuel efficiency[View news story]
    I agree with Elon Musk (and am looking forward to buying a model S (in France)) that all electric is the future of all high end mobility (perhaps), but not for your average Mr. Smith/Monsieur Dupont.

    Peugeot's Hybrid Air, combined with new materials bringing down weight on basic cars further, is what will matter in the next 10-20 years. Although Tesla will continue to expand all electric in its niche market during that period.
    Mar 7 06:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM (GM) is working on an electric car that will have a range of up to 200 miles, CEO Dan Akerson said yesterday. "There will be breakthroughs in battery technology, they're on the horizon," Akerson said. This year, GM is bringing out a 75-80 mile EV version of the Chevrolet Spark. (See fuel efficiency[View news story]
    GM should adopt Peugeot's hybrid air system across the board instead of continue the tinkering with all electric that is a dead end.
    Mar 7 05:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An issue at this week's energy conference in Houston is how much oil could be saved if U.S. auto makers raised the average fuel efficiency from the current 23 mpg. GM's Dan Akerson says it should be a lot, as GM intends to cut the average weight of its vehicles by 15% and average fuel consumption 10% by 2017, and says GM could have 500K vehicles on the road using some form of electrification. [View news story]
    GM should buy Peugeot's new Hybrid Air system and apply it across all its markets.
    Reacheding Obama's fuel requirements in one, single, stroke.
    Mar 7 02:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors (GM) will join Volkswagen, Audi, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW in fighting over the 3% of the U.S. auto market that buys diesel automobiles. A new diesel-version Chevrolet Cruze will debut at the Chicago Auto Show today with the automaker aiming to disrupt the unflattering consumer image of diesels. [View news story]
    An Opel or Peugeot engine?
    Feb 7 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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