jgpietsch

Weekly ETF Rewind: Maybe a Short Term Pullback Ahead?

It appears SA has reposted an old article, see the blog for this week's. I had some newsfeed problems, which may explain. Anyhow,

marketrewind.blogspot....

Cheers, Jeff

Weekly Rewind: Signs of a Nascent Recovery?

Hey, no disagreement here -- but maybe we get some upside juice into the new year, no? More importantly, the chart above is incorrect (week 39, not 49). Please see blog for correct chart at marketrewind.blogspot...., and sorry about that. Have a good weekend, Jeff

Mini-November Crash Update

Missing?

Six, as we all know, there is a government sponsored reinflation attempt afoot.

The Devastating Week That Was

Also, what happens with all that cash... capital reserve, or put back to work...?

The Devastating Week That Was

Certainly agree in all respects.

On the QQQQ's Strong Leg Up: Where to from Here?

Hi, this is a much catchier title than as originally submitted, which was "NASDAQ100 Up 7% in 10 Days: What Happens Next?" I only point this out because the edited title may seem to present a more bearish attitude than I meant to imply. Best, Jeff

EDITOR'S NOTE: Author's comment was on piece's original title "QQQQ Set to Cool Off After Strong Leg Up."

NASDAQ 100 Update - 3 Days Down 7+%: Now What?

This particular blog thread is getting dull, but to play it out -- here we go. Downward momentum seems to be slowing, if not diverging on an hourly basis; short-term daily RSI is bottomed out; daily pivot S2 seems to be holding; Adjusted Tick is positive (see Steenbarger); the index is nearing in on a 62% Fibonnaci retracement; and the Financials and Transports are starting to pull on a relative basis (come on Semis). I know -- all technical observations that may amount to a hill of beans in this fearful, split market environment!

As of the time of this mid-day post, the NASDAQ 100 is down more than 10% from recent highs, including four successive down days cumulatively exceeding -9.75%. Again, going back through 1998 (2,480 market days) looking to see what happens the next day when:

(a) The index is down four days in a row; and,
(b) The sum total is less than (more negative than) -9.75%.

We find that of the 15 instances (note how this is becoming increasingly rare), 11 days were positive (+73%) for a cumulative next day gain of +37% or an average of +2.5%. The maximum next day gain was 10.0%, while the maximum loss was -9.7%. The specific instances and next day index change close-to-close (and VIX) are shown in the table below:

04/13/2000 -9.7% (29)
09/20/2001 -3.4% (44)
11/10/2000 -1.9% (29)
12/15/2000 -0.0% (27)
06/18/2001 +0.6% (23)
02/22/2001 +1.2% (27)
11/30/2000 +1.7% (30)
06/21/2002 +2.1% (27)
08/05/2002 +5.2% (45)
09/21/2001 +5.7% (43)
07/23/2002 +6.1% (45)
10/08/1998 +6.1% (46)
08/31/1998 +6.6% (44)
11/13/2000 +7.2% (29)
04/14/2000 +10.% (33)

Max. 10.0%
Min. -9.7%
Med. 2.1%
Ave. 2.5%

Today's VIX is straddling 30. Looking at just four successive down days irrespective of degree, there were 49 next day gains (+60%) averaging about +0.8%. I'm sure that I'm dating myself with this link, but remember this b-movie? The five-day MA is proving resistance here for the S&P 500; that taunt link is as good a jinx as any for another downside "outlier"!

NEVER INVESTMENT ADVICE

NASDAQ 100 Update - 3 Days Down 7+%: Now What?

This particular blog thread is getting dull, but to play it out -- here we go. Downward momentum seems to be slowing, if not diverging on an hourly basis; short-term daily RSI is bottomed out; daily pivot S2 seems to be holding; Adjusted Tick is positive (see Steenbarger); the index is nearing in on a 62% Fibonnaci retracement; and the Financials and Transports are starting to pull on a relative basis (come on Semis). I know -- all technical observations that may amount to a hill of beans in this fearful, split market environment!

As of the time of this mid-day post, the NASDAQ 100 is down more than 10% from recent highs, including four successive down days cumulatively exceeding -9.75%. Again, going back through 1998 (2,480 market days) looking to see what happens the next day when:

(a) The index is down four days in a row; and,
(b) The sum total is less than (more negative than) -9.75%.

We find that of the 15 instances (note how this is becoming increasingly rare), 11 days were positive (+73%) for a cumulative next day gain of +37% or an average of +2.5%. The maximum next day gain was 10.0%, while the maximum loss was -9.7%. The specific instances and next day index change close-to-close (and VIX) are shown in the table below:

04/13/2000 -9.7% (29)
09/20/2001 -3.4% (44)
11/10/2000 -1.9% (29)
12/15/2000 -0.0% (27)
06/18/2001 +0.6% (23)
02/22/2001 +1.2% (27)
11/30/2000 +1.7% (30)
06/21/2002 +2.1% (27)
08/05/2002 +5.2% (45)
09/21/2001 +5.7% (43)
07/23/2002 +6.1% (45)
10/08/1998 +6.1% (46)
08/31/1998 +6.6% (44)
11/13/2000 +7.2% (29)
04/14/2000 +10.% (33)

Max. 10.0%
Min. -9.7%
Med. 2.1%
Ave. 2.5%

Today's VIX is straddling 30. Looking at just four successive down days irrespective of degree, there were 49 next day gains (+60%) averaging about +0.8%. I'm sure that I'm dating myself with this link, but remember this b-movie? The five-day MA is proving resistance here for the S&P 500; that taunt link is as good a jinx as any for another downside "outlier"!

NEVER INVESTMENT ADVICE

October 2007 Market Rewind: The Fed Beat Rolls On

A quick correction to my article, the magnitude of the back to back cuts are equivalent to 2001, the absolute level of 4.5% was last seen in January '06 -- Cheers.