johnbee

ETF Trends: U.S. Dollar Attracts Flight to Safety Capital

Money has to go somewhere. Banks deposits are only guaranteed to very small amounts. US $ Treasuries are a safe haven only until interest rates rise or inflation creeps in as they surely will. Equities can be a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation but only if you cherry pick.
The rise in equity prices has little to do with reality. If some earnings are up its because of low interest rates, sacking of staff, temporary withdrawal of advertising, low inventory charges etc.
Funny that the lucky ones this last few months have been the gamblers and the uninformed unless you have been a banker in the Fed elite. It should have been obvious with hindsight that they had to be the first to be saved or we were all done for, but thats not a slam dunk just yet, and most equities have long uphill climb to go.

Commodity ETFs See an Influx of Investor Money

This sort of article is very unhelpful. DBA has lost 20% of its value in recent weeks because its weighting is in wheat and so far cancels out any gains in other areas where it is less invested. Its a real argument against any ETF's which invest across a spectrum of different commodities.

There's Too Much Damn Corn: Futures Get Trashed

Corn might be in good supply but wheat is bad in Canada and just about everywhere elsewhere so DBA ag funds are a mix of good and bad.

Mosaic: A Piece of the Ag Puzzle

I meant to say DBA has LOST 10% of its value in the last month.

Mosaic: A Piece of the Ag Puzzle

DBA has 10% of its value in the last month- not gained it - and Monsanto is down 15% - not up.

What’s Bad for Wheat Could Be Good for Agriculture ETFs

Canada is also experiencing wheat growing problems with much of the crop likely to be lost due to poor weather conditions this year.

Global Food Index: Food and Ag Outlook

A recent Economist Intelligence article was not bullish for the ag sector, as most stocks are plentiful, but they did not take into account buying ag as a hedge against currency devaluation.

Looking at Reflation and Stagnation Trades

Agriculture is the best means of defending against inflation, stagflation, the dollar and other competitive currency devaluations. Other hard assets such as copper and oil are not essentials and have risen too far already especially oil where the speculators with their tanker hoardings are trying to push the price up. The Chinese will slowly move out of the $ and buy non $ assets in commodities and commodity suppliers and try to set up a new global reserve currency based on hard assets; not gold.

Producer Prices Led Higher by Food Costs

DBA and MOO are the best sure shot inflation and currency hedges on the horizon, and they will not drop by half like other commodities if we get more bad news.

Bulls Are Hungry for Grains

Eating is the best reason that these are the best currency and downside hedges in the market. Other commodities have had their best rise. DBA etc are still not too far off the bottom.


On May 06 11:14 AM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

> This will be a repeat of the 2002-2008 grain bull market. No decoupling.
> 6 billion people need to eat, and desire a high protein meat based
> diets. That's why I'm long POT, which always seems to go up.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Its all about Government market manipulation hand in hand with the banks. So Banks should win but watch out if they don't.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

My experience of charts is that there is a certain amount of self fulfilment in them. Right now they all look to me ready for more downside across the board, but are very useful nonetheless.

Five Reasons to Invest in Agriculture

Has to be a good argument in comparison to Gold but one good reason to beware DBA and similar is that there have been three very good harvest years and food stocks are very high. wait to see who plants what since farmers are not buying expensive fertiliser right now.

Commodities Will Lead the Recovery - Matt McCall

This is interesting comment. As I understand it what you are discussing is Stagflation where prices rise (e.g food/basics etc) because of a greater decrease in production (caused by low margins and lack of finance) over decreased demand, and so real asset values fall. The worst of all worlds.This happened in Japan. Why isn't there more comment on Stagflation?



On Mar 15 04:58 PM D. McHattie wrote:

> "[W]ithout a decent level of growing consumption there is no inflation."
>
>
> This makes a lot of sense and I almost agree with it. It might end
> up being right. But...
>
> The forgotten half of the inflation equation, to me, is production
> (stuff). You could have consumption decline but if production falls
> even further, meaning there is less 'stuff' on which to spend the
> money, then you could still have inflation, couldn't you?
>
> We typically think of inflation as more money chasing the same or
> less stuff, creating a rise in prices. But couldn't we just as easily
> have inflation from (approximately) the same amount of money but
> significantly less 'stuff'?
>
> I haven't read this notion anywhere else so, of course, I haven't
> read a strong rebuttal either.
>
> I'm not saying we'll get weimar-style hyperinflation, but I would
> give you weimar germany as an example where an inflationary spiral
> began, not because consumption and the money supply increased, but
> because production fell.
>
> Aren't we seeing a decline in production as unemployment rises and
> businesses and farmers fail to obtain loans to finance equipment,
> ventures, seed, fertilizer?
>
> Through unemployment insurance payouts (that are being extended),
> the unemployed have not reduced their consumption commensurate with
> their decline in productivity.
>
> Is this not a possible, though uncertain, pathway to inflation?