johnbee

Markets Suffering from Withdrawal Symptoms

If printing money is the easy way out of debt why haven't Governments always printed loads of money? It is correct that low interest rates have made people think things are not so bad along with nil inflation, but the US and the UK debt salvation will need be found in inflation and cheapening their currencies and they will be the two elephants in the parlour that will send us back into a W recovery the second half of which be a long time to happen.

ETF Trends: U.S. Dollar Attracts Flight to Safety Capital

Money has to go somewhere. Banks deposits are only guaranteed to very small amounts. US $ Treasuries are a safe haven only until interest rates rise or inflation creeps in as they surely will. Equities can be a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation but only if you cherry pick.
The rise in equity prices has little to do with reality. If some earnings are up its because of low interest rates, sacking of staff, temporary withdrawal of advertising, low inventory charges etc.
Funny that the lucky ones this last few months have been the gamblers and the uninformed unless you have been a banker in the Fed elite. It should have been obvious with hindsight that they had to be the first to be saved or we were all done for, but thats not a slam dunk just yet, and most equities have long uphill climb to go.

From Bear Trap to Bull Market? The U.S. Dollar Is Key

This is the most informative comment I have seen in these columns. It seems that a potential Treasuries and Bond market fall out could be the main reason for the recent switch to equities although a $ collapse could see a move out of US equities. The VIX just shows low volatility is back and the Baltic Index rise and slight fall back looks like inventory replacement that has now slowed as volume has fallen. Once again its anyone's guess but mine is on a 15% maket drop, and the need to wait to see what of the Fed's money printing actually reached consumers. We should know shortly if the Fed needs create more funds in the market.

Surprise, Surprise, Surprise: Positive Economic News Everywhere

My reading of Seeking Alpha has been that the great majority of opinion has been bearish until recently and is still in the majority.
Yet I now see a lot of bragging by those who say they got the March bottom right. Pity they didn't publish their views then. The only person who outstandingly and continually and daily called the market rise was somone called Cetin, and he was widely abused for months by pretty much everyone. Where is he now?
Its clear the market went against all the rules and was manipulated by the Fed and banker pals under duress. Have they re-established confidence? Bank results are meaningless. Its industry where we need see upside regardless of unemployment and the state of inventories will show the way to commodity prices.
Can the $ hold firm. Will interest rates rise or fall. Back to the Fed and what they can achieve. Only the big hitters know which way its going and those who are not and say they do are a waste of time.

Past Is No Prologue: Stocks vs. Bonds

All the large stock indexes are scams and have been from the beginning of time since the moment an index stock looks like its on the way down its replaced by one that looks as if it may go up. The only method of investing in stocks that succeeds over bonds is to cherry pick and leverage the equity selection and hope you are right. Alpha stock investing by pension funds is just a sure way for the managers to make big salaries and to avoid being sued for incompetence when the performance of your penson fund fails, as most have.

Here's What World Markets Are Telling Income Investors to Do

Its pointless trying to rationalise the markets other than in political terms since its Government actions that are manipulating them.

Don't Fight the Guys Who Have the Power to Print Money

I subscribe to the go where the money is theory. weight of money (buying power) has always been the principal reason any market goes up almost regardless of conditions since it has to go somewhere, and that's what Bernanke has created and is directing.
What he is trying for is a balancing act to keep everyone happy in which he saves the banks on condition they help out such as keeping the oil price at a level which helps the oil countries balance their budgets and so stops revolutions. This makes the banks profits also so neither they or others will want to see new losses now. For the same reason Banks have also been buying equities and helping to finance new issues to put a brave face on the Stock market and at the same time keeping people just scared enough to buy enough Treasuries while keeping gold below $1,000 to make the $ look fairly firm by comparison, while letting a small amount of inflation help house prices along with very low interest rates.
Bernanke has done a good job to date but he must sweat every night that he can keep all the balls in the air at one time. He has obviously been helped by friendly Japan to say they have confidence in the $; and it makes sense for the Chinese and Rusians to say say also, as they have recently done, while slowly divesting into commodities and hard assets and buying IMF bonds in an attempt to find alternatives to the $ in the future. Everyone of them knows it all hangs in the balance. If it all does collapse again then the banks are finished for good. What best therefore for investment? Gazprom is the largest energy company in the world supplying natural gas and oil on long term (up to 50 years)contracts all over Europe with immense reserves. Agriculture plays such as DBA are effectively currency hedges and with the least downside if the markets fall again as people need food first and foremost, and the Canadian wheat and grain fields have all but failed this year. India is not so reliant on exports as China but China has a far better global strategy and huge funds to go with it to buy and stock commodities cheaply for future internal growth, and both are still growth areas and will be for years ahead with low cost labor and huge expanding populations equalling half the world's people; mostly under 35 years old with far more skilled people than Europe to come in future years. In any sensibiity these stocks are riduculously cheap. These countries will not nosedive for long, if at all, as there is too much impetus now and the desire to work to better themselves while the West whinges for its welfare and pension rights
My stocks: Gazprom;Infosys; Morgan Stanley China fund; Chinalco;
China Mobile; DBA. Only buy exporters in US and Europe.

Un-American Government Intervention

Politicians make the law. they can do what they like until you vote them out and put in the next lot; but isn't that just whats been done?!

This Market's Rising Tide Isn't Lifting All Boats

good point- I thought the same too!


On Jun 14 10:19 AM TATyszka wrote:

> Re: your ultimate statement, did you mean to say, " . . . when the
> tide is starting to go out," i.e. the tide is about to go lower?

The Coming Economic Collapse, Part 2

Its as clear as the light of day that during this Century the peoples of this world will become equal in wealth (or lack of it), unless some nations win out by force, since knowledge is becoming universal thanks to the Internet. Growth is always stimulated by the young and productive who demand goods and create wealth but its the non productive old or welfare recipients who don't have the savings to pay for themselves, or whose pensions are sucking companies or government dry, that create the problem and a solution need be found.

The Bull Is Back...on So Many Levels

nobody seems to point out that the market might have consolidated at this level- still 40% down on the 2008 peak, and will stay around it until we find out if the stimulus is really working or not.

Precious Metals Gain; Record Low Mortgages Bring Buyers Back

beacuse the market's rigged- thats why


On Jun 03 01:02 PM rick12345 wrote:

> Anyone who thinks Comex/Forex or any other crooked and spineless
> organization are not manipulating the gold market is delusional.
> Gold is taking an absolute hammering at the moment for no apparent
> reason, whatsoever. My guess is that the govt are shit scared about
> the aussie dollar making an assault on the USD after Australia today
> announced it had avoided recession at a time when the rest of the
> developed world is going bust. And if you think I'm pissed, you're
> right. I mean come on, why the F#$%%!G hell would a currency belonging
> to a country that just made this type of announcement plunge 2.5
> cents against the currency of a country that is still deep in recession.
>
> I fully disclose that I am indeed invested in AUD and Gold at the
> moment.

Fear Is Driving the Markets Higher

Yup, this is the weight of money argument and its always been the best one. Money has to go somewhere- which is why sub prime borrowers became favored when there was too much money around and so poor returns need be bettered (on paper at least); and now we have got bonds looking risky as interest rates go up. so where does the bond money go? Into equities or commodities as it has nowhere else to go thats why.

Gary Shilling: Say Goodbye to the Great Gatsby Era

As soon as the Banks have got their hands on your savings again they will be dreaming up yet another way to spend it and throw it down the tubes. They've done it with Tiger economies, emerging markets, the Net boom, sub primies, etc etc and they will do it again as soon as they can dream up a new story since they have no idea to do with money except take commission off the top and need an excuse to do it.


On May 15 10:03 AM Bull Run wrote:

> Golden era over; a major factor reflecting lack of consumer spending,
> has been the huge shift in America's saving. Prior to the collapse
> it was in negative territory,minus 6% and today it's plus 4%, and
> seems to be headed even higher. That's a 10% delta. If these saving
> rates are long lasting, the GDP, which is largerly made up of a consumer
> consumption v.s. exports, will take some serious hits in the near
> future.

Jim Welsh on the Economy: Past the Point of No Return

I am from the UK also. It needs a wealthy investor or group to take a civil case against bank malfeasance as the Government and its cronies will not prosecute them, since to do so can so nearly implicate Government departments and ministries too close to home. So the police and the judiciary are no doubt to be actively discouraged from any action on their part on the basis that they would upset the applecart and jeopardise the banks' credibility with the public- on the presumed notion that they still have any!
Its as clear as day that criminal negligence at least has taken place in the banks as why would they have been in such a rush to take their bonuses and disappear? But their defence will be the same as followers of the 3rd Reich- we were just following orders!


On May 06 09:20 AM bozzy wrote:

> Thank you for a luminous and truly excellent piece of analysis. And
> all the while the market says let's have a party Q1 2010???
>
> I don't think so, and here in the UK, historically our problems have
> followed where the US leads, so talk of recovery in the absence of
> fundamental support seems very premature indeed. The PNR (point of
> no return) analogy feels very apt: for aviators, it is mostly calculated
> for long flights over dangerous terrain with nowhere to land - eg
> water. Right now, the quantitative easing measures and banking bailouts
> have resulted in very little lubrication for the credit markets,
> and here, as in the USA, it would appear that there is little choice
> but to carry on in hope alone.
>
> If that is so, the pain is going to get a lot worse yet.
>
> With Joe public's sons and daughters about to pick up a very large
> tax bill, how strange that with statute law available to establish
> possible culpability and personal liability of directors for transactions
> during the 6 months preceding insolvency, not one of the bailed out
> bank directors in the UK has even been investigated on these grounds,
> yet official and public condemnation abounds, and the so-called regulator
> says it is determined to hang tougher and tougher.
>
> So much for the end of cronyism in the UK.