johnbee

Roubini Hates Gold: Is He Wrong Again?

If all the aid money to banks is being lent back to the Federal Reserve where is the money for credit for industrial growth? I guess Bernanke has to find the answer to this and the smart banks have made their fortunes this year by gambling that he has it and that either industry will get enough credit to recover or inflation will do the trick. Sure deflation is a possibility but in the balance of probabilities inflation is the better bet and so real assets are preferable to any currency.

Roubini Hates Gold: Is He Wrong Again?

Despite the deflationary argument of economic theorists, people in general are fearful of either inflation or another and possibly final collapse, and its fear ruling the market right now since apart from pumping state aid into the system nothing has happened to change what brought about the crash before. The smart Banks still rule and will continue to behave as they have for 1,000 years unless they are nationalised on a non profit basis. The world's growth is founded on a teadmill of increasing credit to an ever expanding and more productive population where the only solution to debts is inflation which in turn sorts out the wheat from the chaff in survival terms. In a total collapse does gold buy food? No - but people believe it might, and in inflation does gold keep its value against all other resources? It has no reason to other than people think it would. So better be a psychologist than an economist right now.

It's Time to Sell Equities and Look to These 3 Areas

nobody knows who is buying. it's obvious the whole market is manipulated: treasuries, stocks, gold, the $ etc.
Those who are genuinely in the know (the directors of those banks who make up the Fed and their friends) must be making the killing of the Millenium.

ETF Trends: U.S. Dollar Attracts Flight to Safety Capital

Money has to go somewhere. Banks deposits are only guaranteed to very small amounts. US $ Treasuries are a safe haven only until interest rates rise or inflation creeps in as they surely will. Equities can be a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation but only if you cherry pick.
The rise in equity prices has little to do with reality. If some earnings are up its because of low interest rates, sacking of staff, temporary withdrawal of advertising, low inventory charges etc.
Funny that the lucky ones this last few months have been the gamblers and the uninformed unless you have been a banker in the Fed elite. It should have been obvious with hindsight that they had to be the first to be saved or we were all done for, but thats not a slam dunk just yet, and most equities have long uphill climb to go.

Today in Commodities: Dollar Doom?

Its fear that drives the $US up and less fear down again. That's the call.

Precious Metals Gain; Record Low Mortgages Bring Buyers Back

beacuse the market's rigged- thats why


On Jun 03 01:02 PM rick12345 wrote:

> Anyone who thinks Comex/Forex or any other crooked and spineless
> organization are not manipulating the gold market is delusional.
> Gold is taking an absolute hammering at the moment for no apparent
> reason, whatsoever. My guess is that the govt are shit scared about
> the aussie dollar making an assault on the USD after Australia today
> announced it had avoided recession at a time when the rest of the
> developed world is going bust. And if you think I'm pissed, you're
> right. I mean come on, why the F#$%%!G hell would a currency belonging
> to a country that just made this type of announcement plunge 2.5
> cents against the currency of a country that is still deep in recession.
>
> I fully disclose that I am indeed invested in AUD and Gold at the
> moment.

John Paulson Piles into Gold; George Soros Sells Petrobras and Potash

Gold reflects the $ price. If gold goes up it makes the $ look cheap so its controlled by powerful forces to suit. Maybe Paulson knows the controls will come off soon now the stock market market has been manipulated upwards so as to devalue the $ sufficiently to push up housing prices and repay $ Treasury debts at lower value.

Why Gold Is Losing Its Shine

At this level gold is a just a fear indicator. If you think the world economy will collapse and take years to recover, that there will be major international wars or disease; then buy some gold. If you think there will be major inflation then you might buy gold as it should go up in line with the $'s drop in value, but you would be better off buying all sorts of things that go up in inflation and that governments don't manipulate to suit their ends, not yours.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Its all about Government market manipulation hand in hand with the banks. So Banks should win but watch out if they don't.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

My experience of charts is that there is a certain amount of self fulfilment in them. Right now they all look to me ready for more downside across the board, but are very useful nonetheless.

Commodities Will Lead the Recovery - Matt McCall

This is interesting comment. As I understand it what you are discussing is Stagflation where prices rise (e.g food/basics etc) because of a greater decrease in production (caused by low margins and lack of finance) over decreased demand, and so real asset values fall. The worst of all worlds.This happened in Japan. Why isn't there more comment on Stagflation?



On Mar 15 04:58 PM D. McHattie wrote:

> "[W]ithout a decent level of growing consumption there is no inflation."
>
>
> This makes a lot of sense and I almost agree with it. It might end
> up being right. But...
>
> The forgotten half of the inflation equation, to me, is production
> (stuff). You could have consumption decline but if production falls
> even further, meaning there is less 'stuff' on which to spend the
> money, then you could still have inflation, couldn't you?
>
> We typically think of inflation as more money chasing the same or
> less stuff, creating a rise in prices. But couldn't we just as easily
> have inflation from (approximately) the same amount of money but
> significantly less 'stuff'?
>
> I haven't read this notion anywhere else so, of course, I haven't
> read a strong rebuttal either.
>
> I'm not saying we'll get weimar-style hyperinflation, but I would
> give you weimar germany as an example where an inflationary spiral
> began, not because consumption and the money supply increased, but
> because production fell.
>
> Aren't we seeing a decline in production as unemployment rises and
> businesses and farmers fail to obtain loans to finance equipment,
> ventures, seed, fertilizer?
>
> Through unemployment insurance payouts (that are being extended),
> the unemployed have not reduced their consumption commensurate with
> their decline in productivity.
>
> Is this not a possible, though uncertain, pathway to inflation?

Has Gold Appreciated Too Much to Be Inflation Protection?

Seems to me if you want to relate value to something meaningful it should be flour or tobacco or Mars Bars rather than Gold. Most of its value is a sham. At least the $ has a value reasonably relative to its GNP.

In This Global Depression, Gold Is a Safe Haven

The price of gold relates more to psychological factors than its actual use.
These factors are subjective and irrational based largely on fear and speculation. This is not to say that the price of gold will not go up despite deflation, or that it may go down. Noboday knows other than if enough people buy it then a rise in price will be self fulfilling. In inflation it will hold its own against currencies but then so will lots of other alternatives
in commodities and stocks. As a word of warning most States in trouble are selling their gold and foreign currency reserves to support their own economies. There is not the remotest possibility that countries will return to the Gold Standard so what worth does it have for States to hold other than as a speculation?

As Bond Prices Sink, Hold on to Gold

will walmart sell me bread for my gold groat? or will my local bank change it?
or if I swallow it will my doctor accept my body's rejection of it as payment towards his daughters dancing lessons?