rrbatch

My U.S. Infrastructure and Employment Plan

Good try, but no cigar!

All the suggested infrastructure improvements require a heavy up-front investment in engineering. Speaking as a semi-retired engineer, I can attest that the US has an acute shortage of qualified engineers (plenty of lawyers and pseudo-environmentalis... though). The lead time to train and develop a qualified engineer is 10-15 years -- if you can find and motivate qualified candidates. What is our esteemed Congress doing to open up the H1B program so we can import more engineers?

Solar power at utility scale is a wacko idea, except maybe in the SW. Peak solar generation is near noon, while peak demand is after sunset. Likewise wind is OK when it blows, but the least capacity is near sunset. There are no viable technologies to store large amounts of off-peak energy for use at the time of peak demand. Sure, there are a few viable applications for solar or wind in remote off-grid areas at low power, but not for economic residential or industrial use.

As for replacing oil -- 80% of petroleum consumed in the US is for transportation - primarily passenger cars, but also trucks, trains, planes, etc. There are 200 million cars on the road in the US, and in a good year we have the capacity to produce and sell about 15 million. Given an optimistic lead time of 5 years to develop a car with new technology, we're looking at about 20 years to replace the US fleet - we'll need oil at near current volume for much of this time.

Are passenger trains a viable replacement for cars? Not until the US population changes the way it chooses to live. As long as our ideal is a place in the suburbs with an acre or two of lawn, or until we do much more tele-commuting, train service will continue to depend on heavy subsidies - even in the cities.

Hopefully we as a country (not just the powers in Washington, but also industry and the public at large) can evolve a plan that starts us on a path to energy independence. This goal will not be achieved in five years or even 10, and crash infrastructure programs without adequate engineering preparation will only waste resources and prolong the recession - just like what happened in the 1930s.