phat cat's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/276450/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/136029-do-you-believe-borrowing-leads-to-prosperity-part-2?source=feed#comment-499980 499980 Tue, 12 May 2009 04:49:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123820-lessons-from-benjamin-graham-part-1?source=feed#comment-412081 412081
btw, I am a believer that the current monetary and fiscal policies will inevitably cause hyperinflation, it's just a matter of time.]]> Tue, 03 Mar 2009 23:06:54 -0500
btw, I am a believer that the current monetary and fiscal policies will inevitably cause hyperinflation, it's just a matter of time.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119936-the-great-awakening-boomers-your-crisis-has-arrived-part-3-of-3?source=feed#comment-387006 387006
Many people take for granted that lives always get better, and the next generation will live better and longer. BUT, that's through "American" eyes. Look south of the border, how come after milleniums, many of them are still living in abject poverty?

Then let's look around at countries with longer history. China last reach its peak some 1400 years ago, or the Tang Dynasty, and then it was wars and poverty up until 20 years ago that Chinese started their "new" life, and now they are also taking this "american" way of life for granted and want to live like the "Americans". Other civilizations? They fared even worse, Iraq was the craddle of middle east civilization, and the Americans are still bombing the sheet out of them. The Romans? We can visit their ruins in the poor cousin country of EU. Oh, and the Mayan civilization? Go to a museum.

The British Empire, now that wasn't too long ago, where the sun never sets on its teritories. Now it's becoming an insignificant player. (I surely will get flack on this one, but when was the last time you bought anything British?)

We've seen the best times, welcome to the decline. Once we admit the inevitability of it, it actually isn't too bad.

James, there aren't many hiding places out there, but still a few to consider. War is inevitable (surely you know, as a student of history).

May us all live in an interesting time! ]]> Fri, 13 Feb 2009 09:56:43 -0500
Many people take for granted that lives always get better, and the next generation will live better and longer. BUT, that's through "American" eyes. Look south of the border, how come after milleniums, many of them are still living in abject poverty?

Then let's look around at countries with longer history. China last reach its peak some 1400 years ago, or the Tang Dynasty, and then it was wars and poverty up until 20 years ago that Chinese started their "new" life, and now they are also taking this "american" way of life for granted and want to live like the "Americans". Other civilizations? They fared even worse, Iraq was the craddle of middle east civilization, and the Americans are still bombing the sheet out of them. The Romans? We can visit their ruins in the poor cousin country of EU. Oh, and the Mayan civilization? Go to a museum.

The British Empire, now that wasn't too long ago, where the sun never sets on its teritories. Now it's becoming an insignificant player. (I surely will get flack on this one, but when was the last time you bought anything British?)

We've seen the best times, welcome to the decline. Once we admit the inevitability of it, it actually isn't too bad.

James, there aren't many hiding places out there, but still a few to consider. War is inevitable (surely you know, as a student of history).

May us all live in an interesting time! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107599-take-a-stand-against-government-spending?source=feed#comment-314384 314384
James, I'd love to hear what would you do IF you are pointed as treasury secretary, head of FDIC AND Fed Reserve Chairman. Please tell us. Maybe together we can avoid a Easter Islandish civilization dissapearance.]]> Tue, 25 Nov 2008 05:31:37 -0500
James, I'd love to hear what would you do IF you are pointed as treasury secretary, head of FDIC AND Fed Reserve Chairman. Please tell us. Maybe together we can avoid a Easter Islandish civilization dissapearance.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107153-berkshire-hathaway-credit-risk-index-puts-are-overblown-worries?source=feed#comment-311392 311392
Selling options will prove to be WB's biggest mistake. For someone who's criticized the derivatives market for so long, his massive scale put selling is perplexing. 4.5 billion at-the-money put premium received! Sold at the height of the market when volatility was the lowest! These European style options are always marked to market, margin calls are going to make poor WB sleepless. Not to mention the GS and GE investments he just made. Sorry to see WB in this state so late in his career...]]> Fri, 21 Nov 2008 00:34:42 -0500
Selling options will prove to be WB's biggest mistake. For someone who's criticized the derivatives market for so long, his massive scale put selling is perplexing. 4.5 billion at-the-money put premium received! Sold at the height of the market when volatility was the lowest! These European style options are always marked to market, margin calls are going to make poor WB sleepless. Not to mention the GS and GE investments he just made. Sorry to see WB in this state so late in his career...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105015-u-s-economy-there-are-no-problems-only-solutions?source=feed#comment-302736 302736
Here I encounter the most popular fallacy of our times. It is not considered sufficient that the law should be just; it must be philanthropic. Nor is it sufficient that the law should guarantee to every citizen the free and inoffensive use of his faculties for physical, intellectual, and moral self-improvement. Instead, it is demanded that the law should directly extend welfare, education, and morality throughout the nation.

This is the seductive lure of socialism. And I repeat again: These two uses of the law are in direct contradiction to each other. We must choose between them. A citizen cannot at the same time be free and not free.

by Frédéric Bastiat, 1850]]> Tue, 11 Nov 2008 04:39:52 -0500
Here I encounter the most popular fallacy of our times. It is not considered sufficient that the law should be just; it must be philanthropic. Nor is it sufficient that the law should guarantee to every citizen the free and inoffensive use of his faculties for physical, intellectual, and moral self-improvement. Instead, it is demanded that the law should directly extend welfare, education, and morality throughout the nation.

This is the seductive lure of socialism. And I repeat again: These two uses of the law are in direct contradiction to each other. We must choose between them. A citizen cannot at the same time be free and not free.

by Frédéric Bastiat, 1850]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105015-u-s-economy-there-are-no-problems-only-solutions?source=feed#comment-302694 302694
''I pray Heaven to Bestow the best of Blessings on THIS HOUSE and on All that shall hereafter inhabit it. May none but honest and wise men ever rule under the roof"

We had 8 years of dishonest and stupid ruling. I hope Obama proves John Adams right. Anyone knows Obama PLEASE forward James' article to him.

For anyone who have read the brief American history, you'd agree that it's a miracle that US is where it is. We had some amazingly smart, just and honest founding fathers. Looking at the condition right now, it will take another miracle to pull US out of this mess.]]> Tue, 11 Nov 2008 02:05:41 -0500
''I pray Heaven to Bestow the best of Blessings on THIS HOUSE and on All that shall hereafter inhabit it. May none but honest and wise men ever rule under the roof"

We had 8 years of dishonest and stupid ruling. I hope Obama proves John Adams right. Anyone knows Obama PLEASE forward James' article to him.

For anyone who have read the brief American history, you'd agree that it's a miracle that US is where it is. We had some amazingly smart, just and honest founding fathers. Looking at the condition right now, it will take another miracle to pull US out of this mess.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104471-default-risk-for-key-financials?source=feed#comment-299875 299875 Fri, 07 Nov 2008 01:56:12 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103279-11-stocks-selling-below-cash?source=feed#comment-299171 299171 Thu, 06 Nov 2008 04:30:13 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103279-11-stocks-selling-below-cash?source=feed#comment-298419 298419
TRID, ATV, ACTS, HTH, ORBK, GRO, ZAP, KONG, ANAD, SYMX, GILT, ULCM, COWN, MEDQ, ADLR

I have to say I don't know or heard of most of these companies. I hope this is helpful.]]> Tue, 04 Nov 2008 22:59:45 -0500
TRID, ATV, ACTS, HTH, ORBK, GRO, ZAP, KONG, ANAD, SYMX, GILT, ULCM, COWN, MEDQ, ADLR

I have to say I don't know or heard of most of these companies. I hope this is helpful.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103202-the-shallowest-generation?source=feed#comment-298418 298418
If it's so "pedestrian" and "conventional", we wouldn't be in this mess, or are you proposing that we got into this mess intentionally?]]> Tue, 04 Nov 2008 22:53:13 -0500
If it's so "pedestrian" and "conventional", we wouldn't be in this mess, or are you proposing that we got into this mess intentionally?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103202-the-shallowest-generation?source=feed#comment-297733 297733
People who can provide solution to this will be the ones who understand the issues involved. I'd rather have James Quinn to take the lead than the ones who were intimately involved in the creation of this mess.

If we just shift the amount spent on gambling to education, or 1/4 of what's spent on new cars, we chould have a much better educated population who understands the values and right from wrongs. Maybe the obvious solution is short term painful, we have no choice but to take the hit.

The news on US borrowing 1 trillion to finance 2009 budget deficit is exactly what we shouldn't be doing. It's not a solution to borrow more money to solve the problem of over-borrowing. Somebody's going to pay for all this debt someday. We better start saving up for our children and their children, that's if USD is going to still be worth anything then.]]> Mon, 03 Nov 2008 23:08:27 -0500
People who can provide solution to this will be the ones who understand the issues involved. I'd rather have James Quinn to take the lead than the ones who were intimately involved in the creation of this mess.

If we just shift the amount spent on gambling to education, or 1/4 of what's spent on new cars, we chould have a much better educated population who understands the values and right from wrongs. Maybe the obvious solution is short term painful, we have no choice but to take the hit.

The news on US borrowing 1 trillion to finance 2009 budget deficit is exactly what we shouldn't be doing. It's not a solution to borrow more money to solve the problem of over-borrowing. Somebody's going to pay for all this debt someday. We better start saving up for our children and their children, that's if USD is going to still be worth anything then.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103202-the-shallowest-generation?source=feed#comment-296804 296804 Sun, 02 Nov 2008 23:27:31 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103202-the-shallowest-generation?source=feed#comment-296746 296746
James, great article, really makes you think that all these people who live in the world of entitlement (who believes everyone is entitled to 40 inch LCD TVs, new SUVs every 3 years or weekend shopping of trolley full of unnecessary goods) should be supported by the productive sector of people.

But where is this enclave?]]> Sun, 02 Nov 2008 21:34:40 -0500
James, great article, really makes you think that all these people who live in the world of entitlement (who believes everyone is entitled to 40 inch LCD TVs, new SUVs every 3 years or weekend shopping of trolley full of unnecessary goods) should be supported by the productive sector of people.

But where is this enclave?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100656-wall-street-bankers-rewarding-failure?source=feed#comment-289293 289293 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 23:35:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99674-coming-soon-the-600-trillion-derivatives-emergency-meeting?source=feed#comment-286921 286921
The problem is with some of the gambles corporates take. These companies could be beyond saving. Did you see the news that Citic Pacific in HK announced a $2 bn loss on currency tradings? ]]> Tue, 21 Oct 2008 04:30:35 -0400
The problem is with some of the gambles corporates take. These companies could be beyond saving. Did you see the news that Citic Pacific in HK announced a $2 bn loss on currency tradings? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100633-things-aren-t-as-bad-as-they-seem-barron-s?source=feed#comment-286021 286021 Mon, 20 Oct 2008 00:33:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99674-coming-soon-the-600-trillion-derivatives-emergency-meeting?source=feed#comment-285982 285982
It looks like the major issue is with CDS, which is essentially insurances bought and sold on the underlying companies' "solvency". My guess is most of these contracts are 5 years or less. It is like buying/selling a 5 year life insurance, so if the insured person(company) doesn't die, the slate is wiped clean and the buyer of insurance (paid very little if they bought in the last few years) losses the premium they paid; and the insurer collects the premium(not much if they sold last year, remember AIG CDS was trading at 15bps) and walks away free and happy.

Wouldn't the solution be for the governments to study who are the major underlying credits and if they are NOT allowed to fail (in the case of AIG and Barclays) for the next few years, then this CDS market would automatically evaporate, that's assuming no major new positions are added on.

Also, I believe the BIS numbers refer to notional amount. The actual premium should be much less. i.e. if I bought AIG CDS last year, I would only have to 15 cents per $100 notional protection. Even now, Citibank's CDS is around 3.5%, so as long as Citibank doesn't go into bankruptcy in the next 5 years, the CDS seller will make some money, but not nearly as much as the notional amount suggests.

]]> Sun, 19 Oct 2008 22:53:25 -0400
It looks like the major issue is with CDS, which is essentially insurances bought and sold on the underlying companies' "solvency". My guess is most of these contracts are 5 years or less. It is like buying/selling a 5 year life insurance, so if the insured person(company) doesn't die, the slate is wiped clean and the buyer of insurance (paid very little if they bought in the last few years) losses the premium they paid; and the insurer collects the premium(not much if they sold last year, remember AIG CDS was trading at 15bps) and walks away free and happy.

Wouldn't the solution be for the governments to study who are the major underlying credits and if they are NOT allowed to fail (in the case of AIG and Barclays) for the next few years, then this CDS market would automatically evaporate, that's assuming no major new positions are added on.

Also, I believe the BIS numbers refer to notional amount. The actual premium should be much less. i.e. if I bought AIG CDS last year, I would only have to 15 cents per $100 notional protection. Even now, Citibank's CDS is around 3.5%, so as long as Citibank doesn't go into bankruptcy in the next 5 years, the CDS seller will make some money, but not nearly as much as the notional amount suggests.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100030-survival-of-the-longest?source=feed#comment-283510 283510
Right on Thomas. I can't agree with you MORE!
]]> Thu, 16 Oct 2008 06:12:58 -0400
Right on Thomas. I can't agree with you MORE!
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100030-survival-of-the-longest?source=feed#comment-283509 283509
If we are to stretch our imagination a bit more, it's not unforeseeable that we may be in whole lot of trouble more. With the Americans used to all the excesses and increasingly belligerent, and the developing countries like China, Russia and Easter Bloc just starting to taste the fruit of capitalism, a prolonged deep recession will lead to....WWIII. It will start with finger pointing backed by religious backlash (just see how Obama is being labeled as an Islamic terrorist!!! just ridiculous), followed by a mass scramble for resources, then a flared up nationalism, finally armageddon, created by ourselves.

The solution? Not clear. We need wise/responsible leaders who can see big pictures (not just finding Russia across the pond) and people start to take responsibilities for their own actions. We created this debt problem, we are the ones who are spending money we don't have, and we are just as greedy as those people on Wall Street. We know it, if put Joe Plummer on the trading floor, he will do exactly the same! It's time to tighten our belts and start to prepare for a long winter... and gold is not a bad idea at all (physical only, those ETFs might just be as worthless as the Lehman shares in the brokerage account)]]> Thu, 16 Oct 2008 06:10:49 -0400
If we are to stretch our imagination a bit more, it's not unforeseeable that we may be in whole lot of trouble more. With the Americans used to all the excesses and increasingly belligerent, and the developing countries like China, Russia and Easter Bloc just starting to taste the fruit of capitalism, a prolonged deep recession will lead to....WWIII. It will start with finger pointing backed by religious backlash (just see how Obama is being labeled as an Islamic terrorist!!! just ridiculous), followed by a mass scramble for resources, then a flared up nationalism, finally armageddon, created by ourselves.

The solution? Not clear. We need wise/responsible leaders who can see big pictures (not just finding Russia across the pond) and people start to take responsibilities for their own actions. We created this debt problem, we are the ones who are spending money we don't have, and we are just as greedy as those people on Wall Street. We know it, if put Joe Plummer on the trading floor, he will do exactly the same! It's time to tighten our belts and start to prepare for a long winter... and gold is not a bad idea at all (physical only, those ETFs might just be as worthless as the Lehman shares in the brokerage account)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99742-the-weakness-of-the-treasury-s-new-bailout-plan?source=feed#comment-281834 281834
Now we have a concerted effort by virtually all the governments in the world (minus iceland) on board to fight this beast, it'd be foolish to bet against them. I don't care how much the hedge funds have in their control, you are fighting against the guy with the money printing press. And where can you go if you don't like what the US is doing? Everyone is on the same boat this time! Look around, the Europeans are in even deeper, and the Asians are panicking even more because they need customers who buy their products!

In short, people, let's quit the doubting and move on try to make the plan work.]]> Tue, 14 Oct 2008 00:31:12 -0400
Now we have a concerted effort by virtually all the governments in the world (minus iceland) on board to fight this beast, it'd be foolish to bet against them. I don't care how much the hedge funds have in their control, you are fighting against the guy with the money printing press. And where can you go if you don't like what the US is doing? Everyone is on the same boat this time! Look around, the Europeans are in even deeper, and the Asians are panicking even more because they need customers who buy their products!

In short, people, let's quit the doubting and move on try to make the plan work.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99703-morgan-stanley-not-out-of-the-woods?source=feed#comment-281747 281747 Mon, 13 Oct 2008 21:49:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99684-lehman-cds-datapoint-of-the-day?source=feed#comment-281343 281343 Mon, 13 Oct 2008 12:02:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99703-morgan-stanley-not-out-of-the-woods?source=feed#comment-281331 281331 Mon, 13 Oct 2008 11:51:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99538-jeremy-grantham-stocks-still-aren-t-cheap?source=feed#comment-281091 281091
I believe there should be only 2 assets in a portfolio: cash and risky investments. Risky investments include equity, HY, options, commodities, currencies, etc. When we decide how to invest, we should always be mindful that the risk for all these risk assets are equal(if it hasn't proved equally risky yet, it will) and we should be ready to write all of them off.

So are stocks cheap now? Who knows! If you can risk the portion of your asset allocation, take a punt! If not, keep them either in overnight deposit or short dated T-bills.]]> Mon, 13 Oct 2008 06:20:18 -0400
I believe there should be only 2 assets in a portfolio: cash and risky investments. Risky investments include equity, HY, options, commodities, currencies, etc. When we decide how to invest, we should always be mindful that the risk for all these risk assets are equal(if it hasn't proved equally risky yet, it will) and we should be ready to write all of them off.

So are stocks cheap now? Who knows! If you can risk the portion of your asset allocation, take a punt! If not, keep them either in overnight deposit or short dated T-bills.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99482-moody-s-dangerous-aggression?source=feed#comment-281082 281082
I don't deny that there are too much greed in Wall Street, but isn't what capitalism is based on? Without the fundamental drive to create wealth, we might as well all go back to farming and barter system. What we need is some check and balance to make sure greed doesn't go out of control. Dick Fuld is guilty of his arrogence, but the system created him. Don't think for a minute that the guy who's working at the rating agency didn't want to make the same amount of money as Fuld.]]> Mon, 13 Oct 2008 05:19:44 -0400
I don't deny that there are too much greed in Wall Street, but isn't what capitalism is based on? Without the fundamental drive to create wealth, we might as well all go back to farming and barter system. What we need is some check and balance to make sure greed doesn't go out of control. Dick Fuld is guilty of his arrogence, but the system created him. Don't think for a minute that the guy who's working at the rating agency didn't want to make the same amount of money as Fuld.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99482-moody-s-dangerous-aggression?source=feed#comment-280328 280328
Who's rating these rating agencies? Just like who's insuring hte insurance companies, or who's guaranteeing those who handing out those warranties you buy at electonic shops.]]> Sun, 12 Oct 2008 05:34:44 -0400
Who's rating these rating agencies? Just like who's insuring hte insurance companies, or who's guaranteeing those who handing out those warranties you buy at electonic shops.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99415-where-we-go-from-here-best-and-worst-cases?source=feed#comment-280326 280326 Sun, 12 Oct 2008 05:26:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99146-the-last-days-of-morgan-stanley?source=feed#comment-277936 277936
My point above is that the Fed and Treasury can't allow another bank failure or their entire effort will be wasted. Also, I believe the Japanese will be good on their word--let's call it an oriental thing that they actually still abide by their word!!! So if you are selling/shorting the stock because you believe the money is not in, then I think it's very very risky. The company is trading at less than 1/2 of its book value which was verified by UFJ (their conversion price for the preferred is at 32 if I remember correctly, and that due dilligence was done 2 weeks ago). So I'd think twice before putting on shorts now.]]> Thu, 09 Oct 2008 14:26:57 -0400
My point above is that the Fed and Treasury can't allow another bank failure or their entire effort will be wasted. Also, I believe the Japanese will be good on their word--let's call it an oriental thing that they actually still abide by their word!!! So if you are selling/shorting the stock because you believe the money is not in, then I think it's very very risky. The company is trading at less than 1/2 of its book value which was verified by UFJ (their conversion price for the preferred is at 32 if I remember correctly, and that due dilligence was done 2 weeks ago). So I'd think twice before putting on shorts now.]]>