growser7

Five Predictions for This Market

Russ, as a physician I can tell you that all of the ballyhoo about electronic medical records is just that. It is a pipe dream to believe that some technological trick is going to improve health care efficiencey and thus bring down costs. The causes of expanding costs have a lot to do with burgeoning back offices both on the payor and provider sides, and misaligned incenitves---and unreasonalbe expecations about life and death which are parts of current American culture. There is a huge medical bureaucracy which like all bureaucracies acts like a self-polymerizing "Borg" which won't whither and die without a fight. I saw the depositions on a lawsuit brought against Blue Cross in a state I won't mention. The average salary for a Blue Cross employee in the state was in excess of $110,000 (oer the attorney general). On the provider side, it is typical for overhead to be in excess of 70% of collections, with collections often less than 70% of billings.

A lot of you are much savvier economists and investors than I, but this is one subject I have foxhole-level experience with, and I can just tell you the president and his experts don't know what they're talking about. Ultimately serices need to trimmed, expectations changed, and the consumer needs to continue to bear part of the expense.

As for the rest of it, I agree with Prudentinvestor. Read the analyises of Felix Zualuf in Barrons. Fairly strong bear market rally in the second half of this year, then the weight of the delveraged, impaired economy pulls the market down and the secular bear continues on. A well-crafted stimulus might provide a quarter or two of some stability then the economy continues to sag, necessitating further fiscal injections.