marketman54

Being Thankful for Bullish Economic Data

Lets really look at these items:

Real Estate: They tell us that sales increased 10.1% but these are contracts that HAVE NOT closed!!! Meanwhile, nothing is selling over the $200,000 mark and with an $8,000 credit per house - those of us paying taxes will have to come up the billions in short fall that Uncle Sam isn't collecting!!!!

GDP declining!!! Imagine that, 26 million or more people out of work and the GDP is declining. No one is spending money! Xmas and the holiday season may crush the retailers.

Initial Jobless Claims decreasing!! Do they ever tell you in these articles that this number is decreasing because there are COUNTLESS people that have either lost their benefits or quit looking for jobs because there are no jobs to be found. How can we recover when people cannot go back to work????

Now if you add in the possibility of new taxes on businesses and forced health insurance on business we will see ZERO job growth because Uncle Sam will take more money away from businesses.

Additionally many U.S. investment dollars are going into overseas investments because the dollar is weak and other countries and currencies offer better returns.

I know the trend is your friend, but my friend is standing on a giant land mine and I am next to him. I'm gonna move far away from him!

GM's Phony Bailout Repayment

GM will be out of business in the next 3 years. This was a total political bailout of a company out of management control that was highlighted by this fiscal crisis.

They lost $10 billion when the auto industry was at a peak at 14 mill. units!! How are they going to make money at 9 mill to 11 mill units???

They already told us with the Chevy Volt that they will lose money on every car! How many will they sell to the greenies at $40,000 each when you can buy Honda or Toyota hybrid for thousands less??

We will never see the $60 billon GM owes the taxpayers!!!

Ah, I'm so glad my government is so business savy and saved the auto industry, financial industry, insurance industry, housing industry, and is about to rescue the medical/health industy!!!!!

I will be sleeping so well in the coming weeks knowing that the brain trust in Washington has my back!

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

WOW!! HOW ABOUT ALL THIS LESS BAD NEWS!!! Makes you want to go and jump off the nearest bridge if you ask me!!

The only thing worse that can happen now is that the Fed's printing presses all break down at the same time!

Buy your commodities, short the market (SH), and get ready to short the financials for a wild ride - 124 banks have failed and 530 banks are in trouble according to the Fed.

I am so glad this recession is over and everything is so stable again!

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

How is it possible that with all the major obstacles that are still pending that the market can rise 40%.

We seem to be operating on a second bubble from government intervention in the markets and HOPE!

124 banks have failed!! We still have no clarity with all the other financial institutions that hold mortgages, auto loans, credit card debt and derivitve swaps!! Banks still are not lending money to individuals or small businesses.

Unemployment is still rising. The dollar is weaking and many dollars are going overseas in foreign investment.

More foreclosures, lack of job creation, lack of spending.......

I just don't understand. I know the trend is my friend but I see a big black hole under my friend!

Weekly Market Notes: Is the Data Really That Bad?

There is a ton of data that is certainly marginal at best. The little guy that knows what is happening on the street and with his business is sure things are at best not getting worse and certainly NO BETTER than one year ago!

Thats the real issue here! There is no improvement in the hard numbers that an investor should be looking at vs. should be HOPING FOR!

Although sales are better at most companies, they are still down 30% to 50%. Earnings are down! Record unemployment continues to grow! Foreclosures are still rising and have now entered the premium mortgage market. There is no job creation. Benefits are running out for millions of the unemployed. Consumer spending is way down. Commercial real estate may wipe out regional banks. Still no clarity with all the other financials. FHA will be in trouble soon with Fannie/Freddie. AIG and the other insurers still aren't out of trouble. GM and Chrysler could be out of business in 3 years....................

The list still goes on and on. You add to all of our problems a weak dollar; a possible second stimulus; extending the TARP program; extending unemployment benefits; a TO BIG TO FAIL BILL that could wipe out bond and stock holders just like what happened at GM; a shi**y XMAS sales season; blah blah blah............

I don't understand when everything got so rosy. Believe me, I want to see things get better but with 26 million plus losing their homes and not spending any money - HOW CAN A CONSUMER BASED STOCK MARKET IMPROVE 40% WHEN NO ONE IS SPENDING MONEY????

GE Is David Hartzell's Highest Conviction Holding - Here's Why

What about the article that was written 6 months ago about GE being a giant finance company that just happened to have some manufacturing divisions???

That article stated that GE Consumer Financing was going to be in huge trouble because of their credit card payment defaults. What about GE Mortgage defaults????

I think there are alot more unanswered questions here than information provided.

Until people start spending money I think this is very speculative and its a crap shoot to buy and hold GE.

Is the Market Reversal Already Happening?

My question is - When you know that the fundamentals are all BAD and the market is ALL GOOD, how much are you willing to risk????

I am not willing to risk anything!! I am only willing to make or lose on a daily DAY TRADE basis because the straw that is going to break the markets back is very near.

Market bubbles, weak dollar, high unemployment, increasing foreclosures, weak commercial real estate, uncertain financials, weak insurance, no consumption, no job creation.................

This really scares me! You don't need lots of charts and details to know that something doesn't smell right!

Global Markets in Review: Share Prices Too Far Ahead of Economic Reality

We all know what is actually happening on the streets of our country. Less people working. Many who are working have taken steep pay cuts. More foreclosures, less consumption, no money being lent by banks, things are LESS BAD blah blah blah............

The government added our money to the real estate bubble, financial industry bubble, auto industry bubble, insurance industry bubble.......

Now all the bubbles are gonna burst and who knows where we will go once the wheel stops going round and round??????

Hold on to your seats folks, this is gonna be outta control when wall street really looks at the 4th quarter!!!!!!!

Equities Update: With Economic Jitters and Valuation Concerns, Everybody Down

It took a long time but I think reality is going to hit the nuts on Wall Street.

This economy IS NOT 50% better than it was one year ago.

All of the following are worse: more unemployment; more foreclosures; more uncertainty with the financials/tarp/TO BIG TO FAIL BILL; Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac/ FHA? ; AIG, GE, on and on and on.

Consumers are not consuming, there is no job creation, banks are not lending money, unless we subsidize first time home buyers the only things selling are foreclosures.............

Let face it folks, Wall Street is just learning how bad it is and the rest of us that own businesses and can think like a ten year old can figure out the fundamentals.

This BALLOON RIDE IS ALMOST OVER. Get out your checkbooks though because we will have another wonderful stimulus and probably TARP 2!!!!!!!

Housing Starts, Building Permits Down

Unless we ante up $8,000 per house they ain't selling. No one can get a mortgage, no one can sell their house, no one can move up or down size unless they are loaded with cash.

The new housing market is stuck with inventory, expensive land and no desire to start building $200,000 houses to lose money on.

Housing market, what housing market????

Equities Update: Markets End Week Up 3%

26 milllion plus out of work and every American spending less money and look what happens - our GPD is expected to grow 3.5% HOW CAN THIS HAPPEN??

Where are all the stimulus jobs and when and how are these 26 million people going back to work???

Sales are still down 20% to 40% for companies across the board and yet we are excited about this????????

Citibank, Bank of America, GE, AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac ........all these companies are still on the brink???????

GM and Chrysler will be dead in three years.

Will there ever be a housing market again??? Will the foreclosure rate slow down soon?? Will commercial real estate collapse the regional banking system??

Will the government balloons pop in all the markets that have our money - auto, financial, insurance???

Small business still cannot borrow money, my friends and I know this because the banks won't make asset based loans.

So much uncertainty, so many cluttered facts, so much less bad is more good, so many training wheels for the market....., so many low hurdles for earning reports, so much less than mediocre hope and hype to drive the market.

Cause for Concern: No Change from the Fed

They didn't change a thing because we are so "LESS BAD" than before. Actually we are in worse bad and about to get worser!!

They didn't change anything because NOTHING HAS CHANGED from a year ago. Actually, things are probably worse. There is no recovery to date, it's all BULLSH*T. If things were better they would have push rates a little bit. They are the same because you can't slow down something that IS NOT happening. And folks, if something was happening, explain to me why the unemployment numbers keep going up????

More unemployed, more foreclosures, more bank failures, more uncertainty, more money printed.....more bad, less good!

They are getting ready for major failures with their new to big to fail legislation - you wait and see!!! Citigroup, Bank of America, AIG, GM again, Chrysler, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, GE..........They will wipe out the bond holders and stock holders and these companies will be able to wipe billions off their books and it won't cost taxpayers a penny. Makes you wanna go out and buy some stock, don't it!!!!!!!

You watch what happens in the next six months - NOTHING!!!! Hope and propaganda is your market friend. Watch your money!

The Market Goes Bipolar

It's bipolar because nobody really knows what is going on. The last six months of "less bad is good" is starting to play in peoples heads.

How bad is it really out on the street? As a small business owner and a guy that has 20 friends with small businesses, I can tell you that things are really bad and may be worse than one year ago.

Nothing is better, nothing.

The initial claim on all of our demise was based on foreclosures and consumer spending.

We all know that foreclosures continue to increase and now we also have commercial real estate that is going to crash. Add in credit card defaults and auto loan defaults and all the bad credit swaps and you know why our government is passing legislation so that shareholders get totally wiped out when the banks fail.

Consumer spending is all but dead. Durable goods non-existent, auto sales down 40% still, travel/dining/clothing... all down. Just look at your malls and strip malls and all the vacancies that abound.

All the money that was pumped into the financials, auto, insurance, housing industries will pop very soon. This will keep people out of the market forever if they loose big twice.

A Look at Annual Real GDP Growth

I don't understand how there can be any GDP growth.

It was written that 70% of our GDP was consumer driven. You remove 26 million consumers due to unemployment and take the rest of all consumers spending less money and there is NO WAY it can grow.

I think our government is making up numbers and then comes back and adjusts them and no one seems to care!!!

Market: Spooked Today, But Panic Attack Is Likely Temporary

You want the basics and the fundamentals, it is very easy, here they are:

1. 26 million out of work and growing.
2. No one going back to work in over a year.
3. Unemployment benefits running out.
4. GM wants another 50 billion or good bye!!
5. GE wants 80 billion or good bye!!!
6. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are getting flooded with additional foreclosures.
7. AIG, not worth a penny????
8. Financials still no clarity, foreclosures up, auto and credit card defaults up, credit swaps no value, loans down.....
9. Auto sales down from 14 million to 9 million.
10. Travel and business travel, way down.
11. Leisure industry down,
12. Dining down.
13. Heavy industry, down.
14. Durable goods, down.
15. Consumer goods, down.

Virtually every sector of the market is worse off than a year ago but there is no reflection in the market for this.

Uncle Sam is spending all my money but has run out. The balloons will pop and we will crash again and the small guy will be hurt a second time.

If you think there was alot of money sitting on the side now, wait till the second coming!!!

Things are bad and getting worse and there is nothing that my lying government and HOPEFUL wallstreeters can say that will make me believe that it is anything other than pitiful out on the street.