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marketman54

marketman54
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  • Expecting Improved Housing Starts [View article]
    The feel good sentiment for the markets and the home industry is total BULLSH*IT!

    The housing industry is screwed for the next 5 years or more. 7 to 10 million people are gonna be out of work. How many more homes will go into foreclosure and come on the market.

    New home buyers still have to come up with 20% down, how many people have this kind of money??

    You can't sell your existing home, so you can't move up.

    What about the problem with the Chinese drywall? The big home companies are gonna get sued and put out of business for using this product.

    Housing industry, what housing industry?????
    May 23, 2009. 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Consumer Still Retrenching [View article]
    You say that we are not in a free fall and I disagree. I think the free fall is still happening.

    You have sales dropping 10 to 20% a month across the board. You have earnings dropping at an even greater rate. This less bad is more better philosophy is crap!

    As more people become unemployed these numbers will continue to drop. Consumption is down and will continue to drop. People are only buying what is essential.

    Look at Sony, Panasonic, Hitachi, auto sales, retail, travel industry......

    I see no stabalization for years.

    May 23, 2009. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Do Credit-Card Interest Rates Reflect? [View article]
    Ah, the retarding of America. Sorry folks, we all have to be reduced to the lowest common denominator - your basic American retard status.

    Yes folks, because people were bombarded with 20 credit card applications a week for years and because most Americans opened as many accounts as possible, we all have to suffer because they can't pay their bills.

    Poor debtor, to stupid to realize that they spent too much money and can't pay enough back because they had to have whatever crap they purchased and have it NOW.

    It's not gonna make much difference. 7 to 10 million unemployed won't be paying their mortgages, credit card bills, auto loans, furniture loans, ........

    May 23, 2009. 12:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warrant Sales Could Cost U.S. $10B [View article]
    If Chicken Little Paulson would have let the sky fall, us taxpayers would not be on the hook for $10 trillion.

    No, we will not make a penny on money lent to the banks, AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, GMAC Financing, GE Finance, GM, Chrysler, all of the insurance companies....

    I don't know why they didn't just write each one of us a check and let us piss it away, at least we would have gotten something for our money!!!!
    May 23, 2009. 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Asset Classes to Default [View article]
    Here we go again. WE ALL HAVE TOTAL LACK OF CLARITY. What do these banks have on the books?? We still don't know anything about the existing toxic assets, mortgages, dirivitives, credit default swaps.......

    How many new loans mortgages/credit card/auto and commercial real estate will be going bad with 7 million people unemployed?

    This is what's going to bring down the financials, we don't have to wait 5 more years. In 5 years this will bankrupt the world.

    May 23, 2009. 11:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on the Misalignment of the U.S. Treasury and Taxpayer Interests [View article]
    Don't forget that Clinton and Barney Frank lightened the requirements so anyone with 2 nickles could buy a house!


    On May 17 09:51 PM dukeow wrote:

    > No blame for the preceeding years of the former president's money
    > managers, debt controllers and federal reserve bosses?
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    May 19, 2009. 11:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday's Closing Update: Housing, Financials Rally Broader Market [View article]
    Thank you archman, I do not need to chase this rally either. I shorted this market from May 08 to December 08 and I still can't believe that this market moved 2000 points.

    I still don't get it, everything is less bad. Unemployment at 7 million but it could be worse. Toxic assets no longer on the books for the banks, but they still exist. Mortgage foreclosures increasing geometrically, but not astronomically. The auto industry is collapsing, but it hasn't done it yet. Commercial real estate losing tenants and cannot refinance, but it hasn't totally collapsed yet. Credit card payment default increasing monthly, but it hasn't peaked. Auto loan payments defaulting, but we don't count repos. Consumers are not consuming and sales are bad, but they are not at "O" yet so I guess they are not bad.

    We are coming to a grinding halt and yet Washington and Wall Street continues to blow smoke up my ASS. Pretty soon the smoke will blow back.
    May 18, 2009. 06:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on the Misalignment of the U.S. Treasury and Taxpayer Interests [View article]
    Velcome to America, comrades. You get what you voted for.
    May 17, 2009. 09:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Selling Hartford, Buying Canadian National [View article]
    When HIG dropped under $7, I had my mom sell her life insurance policy.
    May 17, 2009. 06:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday's Closing Update: Limping to the Close [View article]
    I am shorting on a daily basis also. I think it will all come tumbling down, not because it is oversold but because it is really friggin bleak out here.

    Chrysler and GM going into bankruptcy and gutting the auto industry and manufacturing across the country; mortgage defaults climbing astronomically as unemployment climbs; home sales/ auto sales/ retail sales/ travel.........NON-EXI... Commercial real estate rolling down the street like a tsunami. Heavy machinery sales and virtually the sale of anything, DISMAL.

    Consumers are not consuming, banks are not lending, we are in a deep, wide, dark ever expanding black hole.
    May 16, 2009. 03:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where is Consumer Discretionary Headed? [View article]
    I think people are only buying what they need. We were all taught a very tough lesson, things can get bad and you need to save a penny for the rainy day.

    Most people in this country were prompted to live pay check to pay check and have everything there was to consume. Now these same people and the rest of us either cannot or will not make any purchases.

    Discressionary spending, doesn't even exist with 7 million out of work and 100 million scared!
    May 13, 2009. 09:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail: Turning Tail Again [View article]
    You take 7 million consumers out of the market and their families and that spells DISASTER! If it goes to 10 or 12 million unemployed full time and who knows how many part time that spells DEPRESSION.

    The rest of us are scared and are not buying anything we don't need either.

    You are basically removing all the consumers from the market. If no one buys anything, no one sells anything, no one makes anything and so on. Seems pretty basic to me!

    It is a vicious CATCH 22 we are in and the TSUNAMI is upon us.
    May 13, 2009. 09:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Are Stress Tests So Pessimistic on Commercial Real Estate? [View article]
    The REIT's can't refinance because they are losing tenants everyday and the banks know they won't be able to support the cash flow to make payments.

    Two of the largest REIT's were lucky enough to have large stock offerings that raised money but diluted the hell out of their existing stockholders.

    Failing businesses, falling retail sales, increased unemployment and consumers not consuming are at the heart of the problem.

    What do you do with empty buildings???? That's why the banks won't lend.

    Buy SRS, SKF and watch the numbers roll these next two weeks.
    May 13, 2009. 08:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Retail Disappointment [View article]
    Your government has been talking up everything! If you listened closely though, they put a caveat in every statement to allow you to believe that things are getting better. This is one of the first realities to hit the market and more will follow.

    You cannot have any type of recovery when you have a consumer economy and you have no consumers. As unemployment increases and people are afraid of to spend, the world will come to a stop.

    Mortgage defaults will bury the banks with another $4 trillion of debt. Credit card and auto defaults will add another trillion. Hey, what about commercial real estate defaults and all the existing toxic assets, dirivitives and credit default swaps??

    The auto industry is going to fold and there will go another 300,000 jobs, houses.........

    This is going to be the second TSUNAMI wave that will rock the foundation of the markets.

    They will not be able to print enough money to stop this from happening!! Get ready folks, the depression if roaring at us!


    On May 13 04:26 PM Stone Fox Capital wrote:

    > This retail report doesn't really add up. We've been hearing decent
    > news from retailers of late. Heck, INTC really talked up the turn
    > in the market last night. Guess its possible that the larger retails
    > are gaining market share from the small mom and pop that has gone
    > out of biz. The market reaction was odd considering the INTC news.
    > Likely just needed a pullback to create a bear trap. Retail sales
    > was a good enough reason to cause it.
    May 13, 2009. 07:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Retail Disappointment [View article]
    Why is this a suprise, you have 7 million people out of work with no money to spend on anything. Most of these people were taught to live paycheck to paycheck with maxed out mortgages, credit cards and auto payments. Welcome to America folks.

    The rest of us are afraid to spend because we don't know what is going to happen. Will we lose our business, lose our jobs, will things get worse. YOU BET IT WILL.

    70% of our GNP is created by consumer spending, the consumer is dead! Say goodbye to the bull market. REALITY FINALLY HIT.
    WATCH THE BULLS RUN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.

    I have large positions in FAZ, SKF, SRS, SMN, FXP. This will be a great chance to make some huge money in the next few weeks.
    May 13, 2009. 06:50 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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