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marketman54

marketman54
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  • Banks: The Best Short for 2010 [View article]
    First of all GREAT ARTICLE and Moon great response. If you don't know, Obama just guaranteed Fannie and Freddie to the tune of $500 billion!! So moon, you hit it right on the head, in order to save the banks from failing, the U.S. taxpayer will fail thanks to our insane government backing these failed mortgages!!!!!

    Michael Shulman hit this dead on. If you take his views and throw credit card payment defaults, auto loan defaults and the new high end jing-a-ling mortgage defaults where high end home owners who are upside down in their loans mail in their keys to the banks - YOU HAVE SOME BIG TIME FAILURE. Unless of course the taxpayer once again absorbs these losses with the Fannie/Freddie/FHA bailout.

    Whatever the situation, it is not pretty on either side. We will either have BANK FAILURES or BANKRUPT U.S A!!! At $12.4 trillion national debt and rising, I am not sleeping to well!
    Jan 16, 2010. 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equities Update: Earnings Hopes Boost Stocks [View article]
    If this is all based on HOPE, THIS IS WHAT I AM HOPING FOR:

    1. 26 million people find jobs.
    2. 2 million more homes don't go into foreclosure in 2010.
    3. Commercial real estate doesn't collapse.
    4. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac don't cost taxpayers $500 billion.
    5. FHA doesn't collapse with Fannie and Freddie.
    6. GM and Chrysler will be around in 3 years to pay us back.
    7. AIG, CITI, BAC, GE do not fail.
    8. People start buying stuff.
    9. My business doesn't collapse.
    10. People start to travel and go out to eat again.
    11. Commodities quit going up.
    12. My government stops printing money.
    13. We don't have to go to Pakistan/Iran/Yemen for new wars.
    14. 26 million people find jobs.
    15. 26 million people find jobs.
    16. 26 million people find jobs.
    Jan 13, 2010. 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emails Reveal Fed / AIG Cover-Up [View article]
    This is just gonna be the first in a string of lies that we will find out about. How many other things is Uncle Sammy covering up so we won't panic!!!!!

    Am I suprised? HELL NO!
    Jan 7, 2010. 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 54% Bullish on 2010 [View article]
    I wish I could feel that way but with unemployment still rising and no job creation in sight; there are suppose to be an additional 6 million residential foreclosures coupled with their existing foreclosures and credit default swaps and this can't be good for the banks; commercial real estate is suppose to collapse and this can't be good for the banks; auto loans and credit card payments are falling behind in record numbers and this can't be good for the banks....Government printing and giving money away to GM, GE, AIG, Fannie, Freddie, FHA, car rebates, housing rebates, ........

    I wish I could feel good!!
    Jan 1, 2010. 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Week in Review: Citi's Troubles [View article]
    Citi, Chrysler, GM, GE, AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA, BAC may just be the poster boys for "TO BIG TO FAIL"!

    How can these companies that have so much debt, toxic assets, no sales, exhorborant overhead and expenses make it???? Thank you TARP!!!!

    Watch out stock holders of Citi. They just diluted themselves and they are going to dilute you!!!
    Dec 20, 2009. 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equities Update: With Economic Jitters and Valuation Concerns, Everybody Down [View article]
    It took a long time but I think reality is going to hit the nuts on Wall Street.

    This economy IS NOT 50% better than it was one year ago.

    All of the following are worse: more unemployment; more foreclosures; more uncertainty with the financials/tarp/TO BIG TO FAIL BILL; Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac/ FHA? ; AIG, GE, on and on and on.

    Consumers are not consuming, there is no job creation, banks are not lending money, unless we subsidize first time home buyers the only things selling are foreclosures.............

    Let face it folks, Wall Street is just learning how bad it is and the rest of us that own businesses and can think like a ten year old can figure out the fundamentals.

    This BALLOON RIDE IS ALMOST OVER. Get out your checkbooks though because we will have another wonderful stimulus and probably TARP 2!!!!!!!
    Nov 20, 2009. 01:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Starts, Building Permits Down [View article]
    Unless we ante up $8,000 per house they ain't selling. No one can get a mortgage, no one can sell their house, no one can move up or down size unless they are loaded with cash.

    The new housing market is stuck with inventory, expensive land and no desire to start building $200,000 houses to lose money on.

    Housing market, what housing market????
    Nov 18, 2009. 10:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equities Update: Markets End Week Up 3% [View article]
    26 milllion plus out of work and every American spending less money and look what happens - our GPD is expected to grow 3.5% HOW CAN THIS HAPPEN??

    Where are all the stimulus jobs and when and how are these 26 million people going back to work???

    Sales are still down 20% to 40% for companies across the board and yet we are excited about this????????

    Citibank, Bank of America, GE, AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac ........all these companies are still on the brink???????

    GM and Chrysler will be dead in three years.

    Will there ever be a housing market again??? Will the foreclosure rate slow down soon?? Will commercial real estate collapse the regional banking system??

    Will the government balloons pop in all the markets that have our money - auto, financial, insurance???

    Small business still cannot borrow money, my friends and I know this because the banks won't make asset based loans.

    So much uncertainty, so many cluttered facts, so much less bad is more good, so many training wheels for the market....., so many low hurdles for earning reports, so much less than mediocre hope and hype to drive the market.
    Nov 8, 2009. 08:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Debt-Equity Clock Is Ticking - Morgan Stanley [View article]
    OK, equities may still be a good value but this is my take on all of the wall street snake oil salesmen!!

    They got TARP money and pumped billions upon billions into the market and inflated it to the 10,000 mark. Now the little guy on the street, ME AND YOU, think we missed something!

    Main street gets sucked in and in two more months when wall street can't push the market against the real numbers that are coming out with unemployment, earnings, foreclosures, falling dollar.......BOOM - 2,000 points in the toilet and everyone is scared again.

    There is no way we can have 4% to 7% growth with 26 million out of work and everyone else with jobs has cut back their spending!!!
    Oct 18, 2009. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Closing Update for Friday, Sept. 4: Mixed Picture [View article]
    I am in fear mode also.

    -Unemployment continues to go up monthly. Over 24 million out of work!
    -Foreclosures have continued to go up monthly.
    -Consumer spending continues to decrease monthly.
    -Government spending continues to go up monthly.
    -Banking financial exposure continues to go up monthly with existing toxic assets, new foreclosures, credit card payment defaults, auto loan payment defaults, toxic commercial real estate..

    Our government has done exactly what society did to get us in this situation-OVER SPEND AND CREATE BUBBLES IN EVERY INDUSTY! They bubbled the financial industry, the insurance industry, the auto industry.....

    These bubbles will burst also. This is why I am scared, things get worse every month and the market is artificially lifted by hope, optimism and federal spending. I never knew the growth of our economy was based on these factors!


    On Sep 05 08:25 AM drewriders wrote:

    > My fear is what happens in the next 2-5 years when all the stimulus
    > money is spent. How are we going to have job growth when the consumer
    > is tapped out and not spending, banks keep failing and no one is
    > hiring?
    >
    > I am fearing it could get ugly.
    Sep 6, 2009. 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Thoughts on Commercial Real Estate Lending [View article]
    Hey, anytime your government steps up and tells you that this is a problem and it could be a big problem you have to realize that this could be an enormous problem and that many regional banks and some national/international banks can fail.

    Look out baby, SRS will make a comeback and the Fed doesn't have enough of my money to bail out this monster!!
    Sep 2, 2009. 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday Wrap: This Market's Running on Empty [View article]
    I hear what your saying but at some point they have to stop the presses, don't they!

    If not, then gold, treasury shorts, commodities and every short ETF known to man will make me a printing press type of guy!


    On Aug 31 12:30 AM ari5000 wrote:

    > you can't short the markets... it's really that simple.
    >
    >
    > Look: If there is a massive correction and the Ponzi economics of
    > the U.S. fails -- we're all dead. The dollar will be worthless. Gold
    > bugs will be happy but so what? It'll be chaos. People will kill
    > you in your sleep and take your gold coins. Best bet is to take some
    > new quality prescription drugs and join the AIG party -- forget reality.
    > The Fed has - and they won't stop. Did someone really say "when the
    > Fed runs out of cash to burn"... lol
    >
    > It's called a printing press...
    Aug 31, 2009. 07:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Can Stop This Market Rally? [View article]
    This is an interesting thought. I'm just curious how U.S. inflation will change your premise when the dollar weakens.


    On Aug 27 11:45 PM nova wrote:

    > We all agree that there are no fundamentals to drive this market
    > 50% up with the real economy going down.
    >
    > Consequently, the old market valuation paradigm is not valid anymore.
    > The same is true for the US$. The reason is the USA government are
    > in business of manipulating US economy, stock market and US$. <br/>
    >
    > Note that strong &amp; stable US$ is in American and Chinese government
    > interrests. Why? It allows
    > - US government to bail out its financial institutions using US$
    > printing presses and
    > - Chinese to maximize their purchaces of and access to natural resources
    > and advanced technologies
    >
    > How long can this American &amp; Chinese "love affair" go on? Untill
    > the USA, EU, and Japan recognize that Chinese are about to control
    > Western access to strategic natural resource. The similar situation
    > to EU energy dependence on Russia.
    >
    > Therefore, watch out for gold and commodity prices. At some point,
    > a break out will take place indicating that the present geopolitical
    > equilibrium is collapsing.
    Aug 28, 2009. 07:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Claims: A Mid-Cycle Meltdown? [View article]
    Whoopie! A slow down in umemployment. Just how are these 20 million people gonna get jobs and get back to work?

    No one is talking about job creation, consumer spending, increasing foreclosures, credit card defaults, auto loan defaults, existing toxic assets......

    Unemployment, 250,000 a people losing their jobs a month is still a boat load of people out of work to me!!!!!
    Aug 27, 2009. 09:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If Asset Prices Are Dropping, Why Are Bank Stocks Rising? [View article]
    What about all the regional and some of the largest banks that are still holding the original TOXIC ASSETS and DIRIVITVE SWAPS?????

    Add to these the mountain of additional foreclosures, credit card defaults, auto loan defaults, and the commercial real estate refinancing that is suppose to flood these banks!!!!

    Lets see, my business is worth $130 billion but I don't have to show you that I have $45 billion of bad loans!! What is my market value?????

    I sure would like to know the actual unmanipulated value of all the major institutions so I would know which one is safe to invest in. Until that time, the entire market is nothing but a day trade toy!!!
    Aug 22, 2009. 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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