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Sacto_Joe

Sacto_Joe
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  • Apple's Latent Rates Of Revenue Growth [View article]
    Thanks for a great summation of Apple's present state of affairs, R.P.!

    For a long time now, I've watched as Apple's upsetting of the mobile cart has rippled through. At one time, Samsung, Blackberry, and Nokia were way out in front, with Apple not even in the game. That all changed with the paradigm shift that Apple initiated. Blackberry and Nokia are shadows of their former selves, and Samsung clung on by virtue of cleaving as closely as possible to the Apple designs as they matured. But all three had the huge advantage of installed base (we could add Microsoft to this group in that regard, albeit from a non-mobile device).

    But Apple is no longer the runt of the litter. Samsung has shot its wad, tipping as many of its old customers towards its mobile stable as possible. Any growth for them will now need to come from new customers, and thus Samsung will need to compete directly with Apple's superior offerings across the board.

    Apple is imminently well-positioned for the next stage of its growth, when it captures market share from its rivals. It will not be as dramatic, but it will be sustained far beyond the vision of those who have called, yet again, for Apple's demise. As other have noted, the product lines feed one another, which is why we will see even the mighty Microsoft's hegemony under attack.

    For Apple, and for those who are committed to it, the next decade is bright indeed.
    Jun 29 01:01 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: iWatch likely to have 2.5" display, enter production in July [View news story]
    I think 50 million is a figure someone pulled out of an orifice. Setting that up as a false number makes it almost inevitable that Apple will fail to measure up. Future stock manipulation is my guess.
    Jun 19 05:23 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: iWatch likely to have 2.5" display, enter production in July [View news story]
    Even at $20/share, a P/E of 20 would only require earnings of $1.00. They've earned well over that in years past. Just sayin'....
    Jun 19 05:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is One Of The Many Catalysts That Could Propel GT To New Highs [View article]
    Caveat: I'm already invested long in GTAT.

    To me, this stock is most interesting because it brings up the question of momentum versus value. Momentum stocks in general got hammered on Friday, 4/4/14. I see momentum stocks as stocks being driven higher by future potential value. I see value stocks as being driven higher by actual delivered value. AAPL is a prime example of a value stock; there is basically zero value placed on its future potential. But once upon a time it was a momentum stock, back when it had P/E ratios in the 30's and higher (pre-Great Recession). In effect, the "price" caught up with the "potential", at least in investor's minds.

    GTAT is clearly not being valued on its actual delivered value, since its earnings are decidedly in the red. So from my point of view it is a prime example of a momentum stock.

    The thing about momentum stocks is that they are hugely volatile. (Of course, some will say that AAPL is hugely volatile, so clearly volatility isn't strictly a function of momentum stocks.) That is because they are, by definition, a risky bet on the future. And the thing about volatility is that it's what attracts options players, who make, or lose, a lot of money "surfing" that volatility.

    It is for that reason that an article like this is so important; it helps to clarify exactly why GTAT has huge future potential. Consider: at earnings of $1/share, the stock would have a P/E ratio of whatever the stock price is at. If, for example, the stock is priced at $30, it would have a P/E ratio of 30. Now, consider the price of, say, GOOGL, which presently has a P/E ratio of 30. Presently, GTAT is sitting at about $17/share, or almost half of that $30 figure for the future GTAT with an EPS of $1. Thus, buying GTAT today can be thought of as synonymous to having bought GOOGL at half of its present worth at some time in the past.

    Fascinatingly, for fy '12, GTAT had an EPS of $1.45, with 126 million shares outstanding. So it's not hard to see the potential for the company to at least match that number in the next few years.
    Apr 5 05:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Yes To iPhablet [View article]
    Should Apple build a fatphone/phablet? Eventually. It's a niche market at best. Why do I say that?

    1. It's designed to serve two purposes in one device, and it serves neither purpose as well as the devices it is trying to replace. Result: For a little convenience, you give up a lot of usefulness.

    2. It will purportedly appeal to those who either want to pay less or who can't afford more. However, in reality it will only marginally reduce the cost of buying both a smartphone and a tablet, since it will be more expensive than a standard iPhone. One can buy an iPad Mini for a few hundred dollars, and tether it to your iPhone. Result: a far better viewing experience for not much more money.

    Nevertheless, Apple will probably come out with this variant eventually, if for no other reason than to chip away at the earnings of its competitors.
    Mar 26 01:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No To The Apple iPhone 6 Phablet [View article]
    Fatphones have several inherent flaws. First, they're designed to do two jobs, and end up doing both worse than the two devices they're trying to replace. They're too big to be a true pocket computer/cellphone, and they're too small to be a decent tablet. They're really just an attempt to cater to people who are too cheap to shell out for a decent tablet in the first place.

    Ironically, a fatphone costs more than the equivalent normal-sized smartphone, money which could have allowed the purchaser a leg up on getting a decent tablet in the first place. Of course, they may eventually figure out that they should have gotten a tablet, but then they're stuck lugging around that fatphone....

    Apple may eventually produce a fatphone, as there's probably a niche market that could be served. But Apple may also just stick a phone in an iPad Mini, or created an iPod Touch Maxi with a phone in it. Or it may even create a "Watchphone" or other wearable cellphone that sells for less yet still has desirable features, leaving the larger screen iPads to do the job they were designed to do best at the best possible price point.

    The point is, we don't know what Apple is planning. And we won't know until they show us. All this speculation about a 6" iPhone is just that; speculation. It has zero basis in reality.
    Mar 24 11:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No To The Apple iPhone 6 Phablet [View article]
    "Being the owner of a Note 2, you can never go back." Go back to what? What you had before? I seriously doubt it was an iPhone, al881.

    There's a reason people remain loyal to Apple.
    Mar 24 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No To The Apple iPhone 6 Phablet [View article]
    "Apple's "glass tower" management style has lost its way."

    This from a self-confessed person who got put out of business in Asia? Please!
    Mar 24 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No To The Apple iPhone 6 Phablet [View article]
    Exactly. And beyond that, the fatphone is too small to be a decent tablet and too big to be a decent pocket computer/cellphone. Also, it would cost more to make, thus cost more to sell. It's at best a niche market almost by definition.

    The only people who would ultimately be attracted to it are people who want to pay less for more. Ultimately, though, they would end up paying more for less.

    Bottom line: Apple doesn't cater to cheap people.
    Mar 24 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No To The Apple iPhone 6 Phablet [View article]
    Please provide proof of that assertion. Oh, wait. You can't....
    Mar 24 11:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No To The Apple iPhone 6 Phablet [View article]
    I have large hands. I don't need or want a fatphone. I have an iPad for my general computer uses. Oh, and a 27" iMac for my heavy duty needs.
    Mar 24 11:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No To The Apple iPhone 6 Phablet [View article]
    I think a fatphone would fill a small niche market for those who don't want to pay for both a phone and a tablet. But be realistic: It's just too small to be a decent tablet, and it's just too big to be a decent pocket computer/phone combination. Besides, you'd have to pay more for the darned thing. Why not pay just a little more than that and get a product that does the job?

    Unless you can't afford it. And if that's true, then you should probably consider buying a cheap phone with a cheap plan and saving up your bucks for an iPad.
    Mar 24 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No To The Apple iPhone 6 Phablet [View article]
    "Many iphone users have asked me..." Well, that tears it. trajan2448 has the definitive proof that there's huge demand for an Apple fatphone - NOT.
    Mar 24 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No To The Apple iPhone 6 Phablet [View article]
    Not today, or hadn't you noticed?
    Mar 24 11:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No To The Apple iPhone 6 Phablet [View article]
    You're right. Shooting your mouth off isn't rocket science. And trends like you're describing need far more time than a little over a year to establish. There are tons of other reasons Apple had its revenue growth slow, including production issues. I notice you aren't mentioning any of them....
    Mar 24 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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