Born Free Taxed To Death

Take These Unemployment Numbers with a Grain of Salt

The Silver lining : In the Northeast, almost every professional I know who has lost their job has or is now finding a new position.

The downside: Almost all of them are making less (some significantly less) than in their previous positions.

The Second order effect: The observers, like me are scared to spend anything above buying the basic necessities.

Is it really a recovery if you are making 25% less than you did 18 to 24 months ago and everyone else is spending cautiously?

3 Big Economic Lies of 2009

I agree with the Economist. Those who can, should take advantage of the low interest rates and prepare. I don't think that the future is apocalyptic but could be dismal. The golden years are behind us for now. On a personal level, I feel that the people who keep their fixed costs low, pay down their debt and live modestly will fare the best when the debt man comes to collect in a few short years..

Are We Heading Toward a Market Crash by Jobless Recovery?

Where are the shovel ready projects and why are we not seeing them? I agree that the economy can not recover until we have REAL net positive job growth. The information from the BLS is nothing more than political BS, imho.

I am surprised that small and large companies are not marching in the streets for a good national healthcare plan. It would offload a significantly increasing employer cost and allow companies to use that extra money to hire employees.

Sure taxes will increase, but aren't the cost sharing schemes and benefit reductions most employers are currently going through nothing but a hidden tax to employees anyhow? The healthcare/ big pharma companies are driving the U.S.A. into the ground and they scary thing is they don't seem to care.

What if This Really Is a New Bull Market

Michael Clark, you read my mind. I see the next 10 years similar to teh 1970's. Your logic is eloquently put and history does seem to repeat itself.

What if This Really Is a New Bull Market

The 1970's were different. That was mostly a currency inflation induced bear market. This bear market is much worse because it is structural bear market for the following reasons:

1) High unemployment now vs. relatively lower in 1970's.
2) Wages for the most part kept pace with inflation in the 1970's, can't say that is true now.
3) 1970's deficits were low. Now = Ouch!
4) Consumer debt today is multiples of the 1970's debt.
4) 1970s had the "Lawrence Welk Show", today we have "Dancing with the Stars" (well some things are better).

Agree that you have to be in a bull market to make money but be ready to adjust your strategy quickly as the overall market is still a big old bear. Remember, that after 35% returns this year, the market is still down over 25% from the highs in 2008. I don't think the next 30% will come as quickly and easily.

Why So Much Skepticism Regarding the Rally?

I am skeptical in the rally because I am not sure that the economy is getting much better. Think about it,

1) the government is keeping the bubble inflated in real estate by paying people via the tax credits to buy homes.
2) the government had to induce people to buy cars with the cash for clunkers program.
3) unemployment benefits have been extended to over a year.
4) real unemployment(including the discouraged and under utilized) is about +/-20%.
5) banks are hoarding capital, what do they see in their crystal balls? Perhaps more foreclosures and write-offs?
6) the current deficit is over $1Trillon and next year is not looking much better.

Sooner or later, the chickens have to come home to roost. Sorry, Dick Cheney, but deficits DO matter and our government can't spend more money that it takes in forever. Sooner or later (sooner IMHO) interest rates will have to increase to induce investors to buy US debt, this will cause hardship as more tax dollars are used to service our enormous debt. In addition, entitlements are increasing and I can't tell where the money will come from. The rich are starting to flee to places like Costa Rica, so the "soak the wealthy" option is short-term only. With the inflation that I expect, we will all be making >$250k soon anyhow.

Our brilliant politicians have thrown the baby out with the bath water. Best case scenario is that the US does nothing for a decade similar to Japan. Worst case, the rally is really over.

Another Reason Why America's Glory Days Are Over

Taxes WILL be raised. Hold onto your checkbooks everyone, I expect that state income taxes, fees, and property taxes will most likely double in the next five years as this is the only tool that State and local governments have since they are disinclined to cut spending. The federal government will probably only let the Bush tax cuts expire, so that Obama can say he did not raise taxes. Don't buy it though, they will nickel and dime the tax code to reduce deductions for home interest, property taxes and health expenses very soon - count on it.

That giant sucking sound will be coming from the droves of people fleeing high tax areas and heading elsewhere. Note to government leaders - the highly skilled/ educated worker set will also consider moves abroad creating a second order set of issues for the U.S. to handle as the U.S. begins exporting its last and best resource, knowledge.

Another Reason Why America's Glory Days Are Over

It looks to me like the public servants have become the Pubic's masters! I will bet you anything that the benefit bar for government employees does not include the pension schemes which will be soon bankrupting many municipalities and states who do not have the luxury to run deficits and print dollars.

The Shallowest Generation

It is a shame that the responsible people are truly paying for all of the frivolous excess but perhaps the meek truly shall inherit the Earth. The next decade will be a sobering one for just about everyone in America. The piper has come to collect his due and the cupboards are bare. The U.S. standard of living for most people has no where to go but down at this point.

The meek, by the way are not us - they are the Chinese.

After Coming Rate Cuts, Some Appealing Short ETFs

Monty Man "No housing crisis in Canada... YET ". I think your right. After all the chips fall, many Americans may be heading north. I would go long property in Ontario and also the Montreal area.