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As painful as it is, your analysis has a lot of weight and the time frame matches with what Danielle Park mentioned on her blog:
Oct 10 22:10 pm
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All Comments by Learn from your past »Too Late to Short SPY? An Historical Perspective [View article]
www.jugglingdynamite.c...
But it doesn't mean we can't have cyclical bull markets between now and when S&P500 P/E bottoms out (around 6 or so).