Ant Manelope

Jim Rogers Speaks Out - Where Is He Putting His Money?

When commodities run, they can run 10-fold or 30-fold or more. Deflation may cut things down by more than 50%. In the end, well-chosen commodity runs will overpower the downward trend of deflation. "Well chosen" is very very important... definately cotton, and perhaps sugar, lead, zinc, and coffee... I haven't checked stock levels recently, but these were on my watch list within the last few months. Copper and oil corrections look reasonable, but temporary. Human action won't stop, it will just refocus. China is not big enough yet to save the world from this deflationary storm, but this storm will not last forever, and with fiat money, central banks have the ability to counter the storm this time around (in the 30s, they didn't).

In the recent deflation / unwinding / panic, everything is being sold indiscriminately. Big players must have cash now, or they go bankrupt. The selling doesn't mean the asset has lost real value, it just means the mass of sellers are desperate for cash so they don't go under.

I long predicted hyperinflationary collapse, since about 2003, when I bought into gold, and I was certainly not the only one. I am, so far, dead wrong (about the hyperinflation), and I now highly respect Mish. But the game is not over yet. So far, Bernanke has been trying to fix credit quality, rather than directly reinflate. Now it looks like massive reinflation has just started.

Price inflation will not be felt until the credit markets unsieze. That could be a while yet.

Everyone is piling into the USD. If the USD collapses rapidly, a distinct possibility as currencies move very very rapidly, it will be a simply nauseous, disasterous, suicidal time. In this highly risky time, people want to get out at the top, and once the big big players start moving for the exits, the slide will be enormous. This has been talked about ad nauseum for at least 5 years now, so no one can say they were not warned.

Don't try to play the wave. Get into the things that will survive the long run, like Jim Rogers says, things unimpaired. Get into gold if you're not smart enough to figure out what other things are valuable.