User 277230

The Coalition of the Ailing

Felix,

Forget your blog. With your skill at scaremongering, you missed your true calling: an anchor on CNBC. If any of your readers have half a brain and believe this panic is a near-term phenomenon, then they need to recognize that this will be the greatest market buying opportunity of their lives. And, clearly, those companies that were unjustifiably beaten down the most by this unfounded fear offer the biggest buying opportunity. And in my mind, Morgan Stanley is #1 on that list.

Let me share three important facts about Morgan with your readers:
--One of the strongest balance sheets out of any financial services firm on the planet
--Lowest securitized marks of any financial services firm in the world
--One of the highest Tier 1 Capital Ratios of any bank holding company

Oh, and by the way, I read on another blog that John Mack said this week at an employee town hall that the firm will not have to tap into the $700bn TARP fund. If true, this would be a clear testament to Morgan’s financial strength and the conservative marks on their balance sheet.

And, Felix, think hard about this: Goldman’s market cap is currently FOUR TIMES the market cap of Morgan Stanley. Morgan blew away Goldman in the most recent quarter, and Morgan is far better positioned in this new environment with it’s platinum retail broker-dealer business (heeelllooo…not a capital intensive business AND a great source for the oh-so-important deposits). And perhaps even more important, the deal with Mitsubishi (the SECOND LARGEST depository institution in the world) will likely prove to be more of a strategic alliance than a capital injection. What else does Warren have to offer Goldman besides Geico insurance for their employees’ Ferraris?

To put it simply, Morgan is no Lehman…it ain’t even close. The current fear in the market will abate in the near-term and Morgan doesn’t need to tap into the unsecured debt market until at least 3Q09 (more than enough time to ride out the wave of fear until the CDS spreads decline).

Morgan has a long future and I’m going long in their stock. And if any of your readers follow my lead and make a profit, they shouldn’t thank me. They should thank you, a CNBC anchor-in-training, for your fear tactics. They also, of course, should thank that career tort-lawyer, politician running the SEC or reopened the shorts to batter good, sound companies during this crisis of fear.

Get and agent, Felix, and get on CNBC.

Kind regards,
--JP