Amicus

Establishing Hypotheses to Test My Economic Predictions

now, let's do the matrix game from the other side.

THE DEATH SPIRAL

Events move faster than policy makers can keep up, as a series of further blows to confidence eludes the efforts of a semi-competent Treasury Secretary. Luckily, we have a Fed Charmian who seem really attuned to this, so far (I put up as an exhibit how quickly California's financing needs got off the front page of the papers).

You can make up the list(s) yourselves, because I don't like the game of death spiral.

They include further, dramatic bankruptcies and any kind of unexpected, financial services "dislocation".

Key funding events that fail for mergers that really, really make sense to everyone.

Also, geopolitical events, especially those that spike the price of oil.