Cleopatra

Safe Haven Investments: Imminent Danger and Opportunities

Well said Georealist. Personally, it looks to me like gold and silver and oil are going to return to the marginal cost of production. Should be around $7 for silver and $50 for oil. I recently looked over the last few 10-Q and conference calls for Apex (Sil). They have serious cash needs and no way to meet them. Looks to me as if the company is going to go bankrupt with the common stock wiped out. Sounds like roulette without the free drinks.

Counting Chickens: How Much Is the Market Already Pricing In a Fed Funds Rate Cut?

State it either way you can. Makes a difference not.

Apex Silver Mines Might Be a Promising Short Play Now

Nice article J. Christoph,
I'm just wondering what effect the hedge position will have on Apex in the future. With the decline in metal prices they should be close to booking a gain on their derivatives. For instance last quarter Apex book a $223 mil mark to market gain on their hedges and that quarter ended June 30th before the total collapse of metal prices. So I would argue that the $450 mil liability you mention is much lower if not positive. Also, it looks to me as if completion of SCM has already occurred. Therefore I would argue that they are not insolvent yet just illiquid. I wouldn't buy this company but at $1, but I wouldn't short it either- you could lose your shirt either way. If I am correct about the derivatives does it change your analysis?

Is Gold A Sucker's Bet?

Alan,
Have you looked at the price of gold in Euro's? I bet it's still making new highs and the temporary strength of the dollar is what is causing gold to hoover around $850 over here. Congress just approved a trillion dollars of bailout spending on top of the 3 trillion dollar budget. So we are increasing government spending by 1/3 and at the same time the Federal Reserve and the Dep. of Tresuary are trying to flood the banks with money to bring interest rates down and make credit easy again. Don't you think this is going to be inflationary about this time next year? Why not? Do your really expect to see $50 oil?

Is Gold A Sucker's Bet?

Some of Alan's past articles from this year include:
1)Chevron: Good Choice for Conservative Growth Investor, on Jul 23;
2)A Perfect Storm: Retail Is a Buy, on Sep 02;
3)Will the Energy Exodus Fuel a Consumer Stock Frenzy? on Sep 11;
4)Time to Look At Conservative Growth Stocks, on Sep 22;
and my personal favorite!
5)9 Reasons Why We Are Close to, If Not Past, the Bottom, on Sep 28.
Note that in one of his articles he admits to owning Fannie Mae (FMN) as it fell under conservatorship. I'm not sure about this guy.