If you're a bank and take out a fed funds loan from the Fed, that's not a long-term loan, correct? wouldn't it be suicidal for them to buy long-dated Treasuries in this way if interest rates ever rise? I do read this theory a lot though.
> I have another explanation for why the 10 yr is low 3's and the 30 yr is at 4. u.s. banks gave up trying to figure out which resturaunt in town was going to be successful and pay back their business loan and started borrowing at fed funds at close to 0 and buying treasuries yielding 3 and 4%. I think the author is very economically literate but I no longer look at treasury pricing as inflation plus some real return. The fed wanted low rates and figured out a way to get them by manipulating the market. Maybe domestically with u.s. banks and also giving some foriegn buyers incentives to buy treasuries. This drove the yield on treasuries down even though the safe haven appeal of treasuries is waning.
Private Prisons: A Reliable American Growth Industry [View article]
That's a tough one. On one hand a private corporation should never have the power to run prisons, it should just be in the hands of sworn law officers. On the other hand you have long-term govt contracts and captive customers who stay or come back year after year, and really don't have the option to complain much about quality. The main investment risk sounds like if the govt comes to its senses and stops contracting out prisons.
Markets Aren't as Benign as They Look [View article]
The flaw in your argument - q1 09 was not armageddon. Interesting stuff though.
On Aug 21 07:17 PM Deepv wrote:
> The deal is this: just because stuff rallies does not make it overvalued. > Just because stuff has a low P/e Ratio (homebuilders in 2005) does > not make it cheap. Just because a stock goes up does not mean it > is expensive. Also, macro seems to be very US focused. I think now > more than ever a bottom up approach is appropriate. The implied statement > in this article is that stocks are expensive. Which ones? Microsoft > and Cisco on generational low P/E? Apple with highest growth it > has ever seen and innovative products (sure, maybe)? REITS trading > at 10% of peak values and benefiting from credit enhancement? Timber > companies trading at 40% of private transactions? Consumer staples > on 13-17x still showing organic growth year in year out? Pharma > after 10 years of decline? Energy after getting obliterated over > past 12-months in the face of rising oil now seen as an inflation > hedge or quasi financial asset? Nat gas drillers at under replacement > cost? Retialers and discretionary still trading under book and cutting > costs? Where are these expensive stocks? We've seen what earnigns > look like under armegeddon (Q1 2009) condition.
Kinder Morgan's Dividend Payout Rate Is Unsustainable [View article]
I might be mistaken but I remember reading about some MLP etf's that handle the tax paperwork for you, and also they're naturally diversified in the mlp space. FEN is one such etf but I forget which was at the top of my list.
On Jul 31 04:13 PM MLP_Noob wrote:
> Very impressed with the knowledge/experience of the commenters here > (perhaps the point is made and its time to give the author a break). > > I find MLPs attractive but the discussions on tax complications elsewhere > scary. So a few newbie questions: > 1) Folks holding MLPs in taxable accounts: is the K-1 a big pain > come tax time? or not? > 2) Folks holding MLPs in tax sheltered accounts: have you ever had > more than $1000 UBTI reported? What's the consequence? Typically > what acct size should one have to worry about this? > 3) Recommendations for solid MLPs would be much appreciated. I am > looking at NAT, KMR, EEQ, LINE. > Thanks > MLP_Noob
A Socratic Dialogue: Fearing the Collapse of U.S. Treasury Bond Prices [View article]
Maybe holding cash in the author's argument isn't the same as buying bonds or using a savings account? Try counting these last 2 as a kind of spending and maybe the argument will make more sense.
Maybe if Cramer as a new gimmick committed himself to buying or selling what he says to on the show, it would end all the bad comments. Start a public Google portfolio Jim Cramer!
BlackRock Cuts $13.5 Billion Deal to Swallow Barclays Global Investors [View article]
Wouldn't the only risk to the ETF investor be if the fund had to liquidate all assets because the manager went out of business? Kind of like a forced sale. Maybe answers would be in the ETF prospectus as to what would happen if Blackrock failed.
Why Is Administration More Amenable to Banks Paying Back TARP Funds? [View article]
Maybe the TARP $ makes almost no difference on how much the banks are willing to lend, which removes a big part of why it was being done in the first place.
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Latest | Highest ratedNine U.S. Bank Stocks for Right Now [View article]
On Nov 06 12:41 PM Simi wrote:
> i would be interested to know- why timeshares? i have been looking
> at those recently too.... would be great to get your input. thanks
>
RailAmerica IPO's Sluggish Debut [View article]
TIPS Are No Longer a Steal [View article]
> I have another explanation for why the 10 yr is low 3's and the 30 yr is at 4. u.s. banks gave up trying to figure out which resturaunt in town was going to be successful and pay back their business loan and started borrowing at fed funds at close to 0 and buying treasuries yielding 3 and 4%. I think the author is very economically literate but I no longer look at treasury pricing as inflation plus some real return. The fed wanted low rates and figured out a way to get them by manipulating the market. Maybe domestically with u.s. banks and also giving some foriegn buyers incentives to buy treasuries. This drove the yield on treasuries down even though the safe haven appeal of treasuries is waning.
Exxon Mobil Is a Buy [View article]
ETFs: Yes, They Have Their Drawbacks Too [View article]
sec.gov/investor/pubs/...
AIG Overpriced? Perhaps Not as Much as Barron's Thinks [View article]
Private Equity: Sheila Bair Still Has a Chip on Her Shoulder [View article]
Private Prisons: A Reliable American Growth Industry [View article]
Markets Aren't as Benign as They Look [View article]
On Aug 21 07:17 PM Deepv wrote:
> The deal is this: just because stuff rallies does not make it overvalued.
> Just because stuff has a low P/e Ratio (homebuilders in 2005) does
> not make it cheap. Just because a stock goes up does not mean it
> is expensive. Also, macro seems to be very US focused. I think now
> more than ever a bottom up approach is appropriate. The implied statement
> in this article is that stocks are expensive. Which ones? Microsoft
> and Cisco on generational low P/E? Apple with highest growth it
> has ever seen and innovative products (sure, maybe)? REITS trading
> at 10% of peak values and benefiting from credit enhancement? Timber
> companies trading at 40% of private transactions? Consumer staples
> on 13-17x still showing organic growth year in year out? Pharma
> after 10 years of decline? Energy after getting obliterated over
> past 12-months in the face of rising oil now seen as an inflation
> hedge or quasi financial asset? Nat gas drillers at under replacement
> cost? Retialers and discretionary still trading under book and cutting
> costs? Where are these expensive stocks? We've seen what earnigns
> look like under armegeddon (Q1 2009) condition.
Healthcare ETFs Headed for Life Support? [View article]
Kinder Morgan's Dividend Payout Rate Is Unsustainable [View article]
On Jul 31 04:13 PM MLP_Noob wrote:
> Very impressed with the knowledge/experience of the commenters here
> (perhaps the point is made and its time to give the author a break).
>
> I find MLPs attractive but the discussions on tax complications elsewhere
> scary. So a few newbie questions:
> 1) Folks holding MLPs in taxable accounts: is the K-1 a big pain
> come tax time? or not?
> 2) Folks holding MLPs in tax sheltered accounts: have you ever had
> more than $1000 UBTI reported? What's the consequence? Typically
> what acct size should one have to worry about this?
> 3) Recommendations for solid MLPs would be much appreciated. I am
> looking at NAT, KMR, EEQ, LINE.
> Thanks
> MLP_Noob
A Socratic Dialogue: Fearing the Collapse of U.S. Treasury Bond Prices [View article]
Defending Cramer's 'Madness' [View article]
BlackRock Cuts $13.5 Billion Deal to Swallow Barclays Global Investors [View article]
Why Is Administration More Amenable to Banks Paying Back TARP Funds? [View article]