Mac77

The Death of Buy and Hold?

Most folks concept of history starts at the beginning of their own lifetimes.

Buy and Hold was the dominate strategy from 1980 to 2000. It worked better than any other investment strategy over the last hundred years. However there were numerous other periods of history where Buy and Hold did not work at all....1920-1940...196... and beyond? It's not a question of the validity of Buy and Hold, it's a problem of your time frame is history.

There is an investment commercial where some guys are fishing on a boat at sea. They hear distant thunder and see some dark clouds on the horizon. They head back to shore and avoid the storm. Sounds like good investment advice (for these times) to me.

Nassim Taleb: Renegade Trader with Renegade Ideas - That Work

In response to morph man....Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a an empirical scepticist, more of a philosopher than an investor type. As an example, he believes that there are only two types of theories; those that have been disproved and those that have yet to be disproved. It does not mean that theories are not useful...it just means that they are not infallible.

I have read both his books "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan" and have found them to be life changing. Investing literally makes more sense after reading his books. In my opinion, this man does a better job (then anybody on the face of this planet) of explaining the role that luck plays in all our endeavors .

Taleb doesn't try to predict Black Swan (rare random) events, he just believes that most of society puts too much emphasise on empirical evidence. In other words, be a little less sure of yourself...always be prepared. This is why the stock market is known as the great humbler.

10 Points About the Markets

"In closing, I am not concerned about the victory of Obama. The new president will have little freedom, and will face significant unsolvable problems."

Wishful thinking...Pragmatist are not inspiring but they are never dangerous. Idealist are inspiring and dangerous. Obama is an idealist.

Driven to Bankruptcy

JD Powers is predicting the automobile global market in 2009 may experience an outright collapse. Scary stuff.

Looks like we will all be driving Honda's and Toyota's.

Come to think of it ...most of the GM dealers in my home town already carry foreign makes like Toyota and Mazda. Maybe they seen this coming.

Is the Commodities Bull Really Over?

Bubble is becoming a media catch fraise of the day. Now every run up in price is touted as a bubble...Dutch tulip mania event.

Reality check....when the World is producing enough resources to outstrip demand .... when everybody wants in on the never ending Commodities bull market...when CNBC has a guest on everyday talking about the next way to profit from the Commodities boom....it will be over then.

We have a ways to go yet.

Another Perma-Bear Converts To Bullish-ism - Barron's

Why doesn't he wait for another earnings quarter before he starts spouting about how stocks are cheap. Even if they are cheap, an old WallSteet saying is "Markets can remain irrational longer than investors can remain solvent".

Get Ready to Buy Like It's 2002

In response to VEE...........

Hey you forgot to add.."I'm Barack Obama and I approved this Add"

Commodities: The Next Bubble?

Concur with analysis over a Long term time horizon. In my opinion, the Political class are more concerned with the next election cycle then solving fundamental economic problems. They can see it, they are just in denial. It's human nature. Like the reporters of today, they come up with an opinion and then go out and find statistics to back up their point of view.

Welcome to the modern political correct world...you have your truth and I have mine. What BS. Bad news for Idealist, reality doesn't care what you think.

I can already hear them now. Inflation, where?....I don't see it. Shortage of light sweet crude...Ha Ha, gas prices are falling....oh boy...here we go again.

History is repeating itself. Nobody believed the credit crisis until it was too late...here we go again. Back to the 70's. I guess I'll put my Three Dog Night LP on the old turntable and wait for inflation to come back so I can buy some Commodities .....and at the very least fiddle while Rome burns.

Boone Pickens' Capital Funds Down; Investors Withdrawing Money

There is really nothing new here...most people confuse investing skill with luck. Those who "Win" at trading are simply taking "Risk" at the right time...

those who "Loose" are risking at the wrong time. Boone Pickens looks bad now that oil/energy is in a downward trend...he will look like a genius when the uptrend in energy stocks resumes....and make no mistake, he will not be in cash then.

Bottom line Risk and Reward share the same seat on the ferris wheel. It's a ride that we all must take. Just don't be arrogant enough to assume that you are being smart when your trade Wins or Dumb when you it Looses.

An Opportunity for Patient Investors - Barron's

In response to Moonbat1775

"great wise man John Maynard Keynes"

Say what? After writing "Treatise on Probability" ....he promptly followed up by blowing up his trading account. Guess he didn't understand much about the probability of loosing money. Maybe he forgot to read his own book. This guy has always been overrated.

Is This the Last Great Bubble?

I agree, would not be surprised to see the US Treasury market collapse. Every other asset class is getting slammed...can't see the bond market walking away unscathed...if foreigners stop lending USA money and intereset rates start to climb.

Throwing Cold Water on Today's Rally: Mark Faber

In reply to JasonC

"Faber is just trying to revive the dead as doornails commodity trade, but it is way too late for that" Huh?

Use some charting software and graph Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index (^DJC) vrs S&P500 Index starting in the year 2000 to present. Looks like Jim Rogers thesis...secular Bull market in commodities coinciding with secular Bear market in equities.

Historically flat equity markets have persisted for many years...it just hasn't happened during the lifetime of most people alive TODAY.

Cramer's Now a Market Timer?

Jason

On "The Big Idea" with Donny Deutsch, Cramer stated that he called his broker on Monday. He instructed the broker to take all of his 17 year old's college money out of the market but leave the 14 old's money alone. Now you expect him to come on TV and lie to your face. Everything is fine...stay the course.
The man was simply walking his talk.

Does the word integrity mean anything anymore. Maybe the market heads higher or much lower. The question is does he tell the truth or not. He decided that he thinks it's going lower and many would like to hear an honest opinion...even if it's uncomfortable.

Are you sure this is the bottom...based on History...maybe this is a "Black Swan" theory event. Maybe we are in a secular Bear Market that started in 2000 with the dot com bust.
By the way..speaking of the dot com bust, not everybody lost money back then. I knew many who knew it was a Dutch tulip mania event, they just bought high and sold higher. You only got hurt back then if you practiced buy and hold.

Maybe people (those who don't follow markets closely) will throw in the towel and walk away from equities for years out of disgust.

Maybe as Jim Rogers has stated, we are in a multi year secular Bull market in commodities which coincides with secular Bear market for stocks. Yes commodities are selling off now but don't be surprised if they resume their march upward in the future. History shows this happening many times.

I don't like that we have to live through these events again and again, because most in our society don't take the time to read history books. However the world is what it is.

We could be entering the age of the market timer, what if YOU are wrong about the future direction of the market. It doesn't hurt to consider alternative opinions.

Fundamental Valuation: How Low Could We Go?

In response to "To all those selling everything: ok, good, what's your plan now? I guess you all give up on retirement?" by
Muizie

Patience...Don't be afraid of the truth...we could get a snapback rally or we could go lower. That is an accurate analysis of the market we are in. If you want to play this current market...play the volatility... buy the dips and sell the rips or go double long and double short and exit on price extremes. For me that's too much of a casino tactic.

Wait for price movement...money will go somewhere. Even in a year like this, many people have made money...example ...long commodities for first part of 08 and short market second half. .Right now I'm 100% in cash ...not out of fear...all Asset class's are getting crushed right now...that's just a fact. Currently cash is king...that will change at some point in the future. I will continue to monitor price movements and wait for an opening.

You could have made enough money (long commodities) for the first part of 08...sold on downward price movement, and then sat tight for the rest of the year. An investor doesn't have to be doing something all the time.

Maybe inflation will come back and commodities will start to rise again, driven by Asia recovering sooner than we do or inflation. Maybe China will be the place to be. Maybe precious metals will sky rocket.

The baby boomers will have to retire...money will have to go somewhere. Follow the money but don't overstay your welcome. Buy and Hold doesn't seem to be in vogue right now.
Good luck and hang in there.

The Next Bubble?

Sun Tzu (Ancient Chinese general & philosopher) said "all warfare is based on the art of deception. If strong, pretend to be week and hold out a carrot to entice your enemy".

Interesting that CNBC (who's parent company is GE...with their finance divison) didn't refer to this market sell off as a "Crash" or "Cascading Crash" till Friday. Ooops! too late for you Mom & Pop investor.

Now they keep saying "look at Gold, it's not increasing in price..why it's no save haven at all". Even Silver (poor mans gold) sold off huge last week. Interesting that precious metals are not rising with all this market turmoil. Hmmm!

Anyone want to make a bet that we all see a sudden jump in gold someday and the media will say "Wow ..were did that come from."
Yea...I wonder!

Just a thought.