Mac77

Nassim Taleb: Renegade Trader with Renegade Ideas - That Work

In response to morph man....Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a an empirical scepticist, more of a philosopher than an investor type. As an example, he believes that there are only two types of theories; those that have been disproved and those that have yet to be disproved. It does not mean that theories are not useful...it just means that they are not infallible.

I have read both his books "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan" and have found them to be life changing. Investing literally makes more sense after reading his books. In my opinion, this man does a better job (then anybody on the face of this planet) of explaining the role that luck plays in all our endeavors .

Taleb doesn't try to predict Black Swan (rare random) events, he just believes that most of society puts too much emphasise on empirical evidence. In other words, be a little less sure of yourself...always be prepared. This is why the stock market is known as the great humbler.

Get Ready to Buy Like It's 2002

In response to VEE...........

Hey you forgot to add.."I'm Barack Obama and I approved this Add"

Fundamental Valuation: How Low Could We Go?

In response to "To all those selling everything: ok, good, what's your plan now? I guess you all give up on retirement?" by
Muizie

Patience...Don't be afraid of the truth...we could get a snapback rally or we could go lower. That is an accurate analysis of the market we are in. If you want to play this current market...play the volatility... buy the dips and sell the rips or go double long and double short and exit on price extremes. For me that's too much of a casino tactic.

Wait for price movement...money will go somewhere. Even in a year like this, many people have made money...example ...long commodities for first part of 08 and short market second half. .Right now I'm 100% in cash ...not out of fear...all Asset class's are getting crushed right now...that's just a fact. Currently cash is king...that will change at some point in the future. I will continue to monitor price movements and wait for an opening.

You could have made enough money (long commodities) for the first part of 08...sold on downward price movement, and then sat tight for the rest of the year. An investor doesn't have to be doing something all the time.

Maybe inflation will come back and commodities will start to rise again, driven by Asia recovering sooner than we do or inflation. Maybe China will be the place to be. Maybe precious metals will sky rocket.

The baby boomers will have to retire...money will have to go somewhere. Follow the money but don't overstay your welcome. Buy and Hold doesn't seem to be in vogue right now.
Good luck and hang in there.

The Next Bubble?

Sun Tzu (Ancient Chinese general & philosopher) said "all warfare is based on the art of deception. If strong, pretend to be week and hold out a carrot to entice your enemy".

Interesting that CNBC (who's parent company is GE...with their finance divison) didn't refer to this market sell off as a "Crash" or "Cascading Crash" till Friday. Ooops! too late for you Mom & Pop investor.

Now they keep saying "look at Gold, it's not increasing in price..why it's no save haven at all". Even Silver (poor mans gold) sold off huge last week. Interesting that precious metals are not rising with all this market turmoil. Hmmm!

Anyone want to make a bet that we all see a sudden jump in gold someday and the media will say "Wow ..were did that come from."
Yea...I wonder!

Just a thought.