Stability Of The European Union (19) April 18, 2013 To [View instapost]
Yes WT -- that chart is one I keep track of regularly. Cash in Yuan, Norwegian Kroner, Singapore dollars and Australian dollars have been good USD diversification tools for the long term. Whenever there is a "safe haven" pump for the US dollar -- its a great time to get a bargain on these relatively strong currencies. mj
Good article WT: "even IF… even IF QEs and near zero-bound yields are able to refloat global economies and generate a semblance of old normal real growth, they will do so utilizing historically tried and true “haircuts” that rather surreptitiously “trim” an asset holder’s money without them really knowing they had entered a barbershop" -- so very true.
I also found this late Friday night missive "well timed" after the market close: Fed Maps Exit From Stimulus http://on.wsj.com/10y8BI1
And just a reminder of market performance each time we have been offered Fed candy and then had the jar taken away. All good perspective to "chew on": http://bit.ly/13omm00
Interesting DG -- and while Western miners cut back on Capex -- Chinese M&A activity is heating up. Short term vs. long term strategies -- so often at play. http://on.wsj.com/YyNqrz
Hmm ... wonder how many more money managers are planning exit strategies as everyone celebrates new euphoric highs? I am most focused at the moment on how relatively low volume is responsible for our new record breaking highs, and how a mere 55,000 share sale recently caused Google to lose 3% in less than one second.
"Keep in mind regardless of the bears that turned bull on the breakout this week there isn't a lot of confidence in this market and not a lot of bids in large quantity to absorb a large volume sell off. As I see it we have stretched this move to the point where it is likely to snap back like a rubber band when a high volume sell order or two hits the market." http://seekingalpha.co...
Saturday, May 4, 7:24 AM ET "It's almost biblical," says Apollo Global (APO) CEO Leon Black. "There is a time to reap and there's a time to sow ... We are harvesting." The P-E kingpin says Apollo has unloaded about $13B in assets over the past 15 months. "The financing market is as good as we have ever seen it. It's back to 2007 levels. There is no institutional memory ... We're selling everything that's not nailed down."
Today -- 5/10/13 7:27 AM Selling everything "not nailed down," indeed. Apollo Global Management (APO) prices a 21.1M share secondary offered by strategic investors and certain managing partners at $25/share. Shares -3.2% premarket to $24.77, now off more than 11% since the post-earnings pop on Monday morning. (PR) [Financials, On the Move] Comment!
Stability Of The European Union (19) April 18, 2013 To [View instapost]
Yes interesting Jhooper -- and they are rebalancing by restraining the high activity level in the petroleum sector through increased taxes on oil companies:
Why I Remain Bearish Despite The Cyclical Bull Rally [View article]
Joseph, Really excellent article. Truer words could not be spoken:
"The reason we are at all time highs on stocks has to do with the fact that companies have cut costs -- mainly labor costs -- and the government has subsidized GDP through massive fiscal stimulus that has driven the debt to GDP ratio to a level in excess of 100%. This fiscal policy has reached a point where it is no longer sustainable, yet without massive fiscal stimulus GDP will contract."
When the market returns to a focus on fundamentals -- instead of BB sugar highs -- capital devastation is likely to be severe. I am staying very cash heavy (not just in USDs) for the time being, while playing short term trades. Although I will say, that I never underestimate the ability of Central Banks around the world to keep the current music playing - for a very long time. Thank you for sharing your well documented strategy. mj
Very well said WT. I like the quote today from the (FUR) CEO "The investment environment strikes me as very fragile right now," calling it propped up by low rates and capital that ought to know better. "I would rather sit on cash than lose cash and make a poor investment." mj
Yes HTL -- and what I find as the biggest red alert was posted by Phil Davis and Zero Hedge i.e how macro data has fallen off a cliff in the past 60 days while the markets have continued to climb merrily up. http://seekingalpha.co...
Although Mohamed El-Erian tends to talk his book at PIMCO -- I thought his recent presentation provided an insightful summary of his current market views. I am in complete agreement for my own portfolio that keeping options open and staying very liquid are keys to survival and profit making.
Economic Straight Talk summarized and paraphrased how El-Erian currently sees things:
o today the majority of 'investor recommendations' are based on a view that 'stocks are cheaper than something else', not on 'fundamentals' - and that is "potentially very dangerous";
o Central Banks are forced to 'stay on their current trajectory' (by that I assume he means 'continued quantitative easing') and continue to 'work at' boosting confidence;
o eventually all 'waves break', and the question is does a surfer (read 'investor') 'walk off the board' or 'crash'. Like any surfer, how each investor is 'positioned' will determine the extent of whether he/she 'suffers or not';
o there is more than 'one wave' out there beyond the wave created by the Central Banks that the Central Banks can't 'reach'. Some of these, which include selected currencies and bonds, currently have 'genuine growth potential';
o past 'models' (I assume he means 'economic models') are broken, and new 'models' must be built;
o the financial markets cannot disconnect from fundamentals forever, and in the end the financial markets will revert to the 'fundamentals' - with the result being severe capital devastation;
o today the world is very binary, meaning it will either end well or very badly, without middle ground. Keeping options open and maintaining liquidity are the keys to surviving and profiting in a world of likely 'extreme outcomes'; and,
o investors participating in today's financial markets need to mitigate risk pursuant to 'cost effective tail hedging'. Unhedged investors will pay a very high price for assuming 'excessive risk' when the financial markets revert to 'the fundamentals'. http://bit.ly/YzLgdw
And the GSE piggybank just keeps adding value to the US Treasury -- off balance sheet liabilities on $5 trillion in mortgage guarantees -- and accounting paper profits to offset Federal deficits. This piggybank is not likely to get re-structured or wound down anytime soon: http://wapo.st/169NByw
Froggey, I don't trade Tesla -- but these 2 links may be of help in answering your question. The ability to trade options may differ during trading "pauses" when "the trading pause must be observed by all other markets, including stock, options and single-stock future markets that trade the stock" : http://bit.ly/ZvQOB4 -- VERSUS -- during a longer trading suspension: http://1.usa.gov/15gQMVx mj
Stability Of The European Union (19) April 18, 2013 To [View instapost]
mj
QC #257, May 10, 2013 [View instapost]
I also found this late Friday night missive "well timed" after the market close: Fed Maps Exit From Stimulus http://on.wsj.com/10y8BI1
And just a reminder of market performance each time we have been offered Fed candy and then had the jar taken away. All good perspective to "chew on": http://bit.ly/13omm00
QC #257, May 10, 2013 [View instapost]
Thx, mj
QC #256, April 12, 2013 [View instapost]
QC #256, April 12, 2013 [View instapost]
"Keep in mind regardless of the bears that turned bull on the breakout this week there isn't a lot of confidence in this market and not a lot of bids in large quantity to absorb a large volume sell off. As I see it we have stretched this move to the point where it is likely to snap back like a rubber band when a high volume sell order or two hits the market." http://seekingalpha.co...
Saturday, May 4, 7:24 AM ET
"It's almost biblical," says Apollo Global (APO) CEO Leon Black. "There is a time to reap and there's a time to sow ... We are harvesting." The P-E kingpin says Apollo has unloaded about $13B in assets over the past 15 months. "The financing market is as good as we have ever seen it. It's back to 2007 levels. There is no institutional memory ... We're selling everything that's not nailed down."
Today -- 5/10/13
7:27 AM Selling everything "not nailed down," indeed. Apollo Global Management (APO) prices a 21.1M share secondary offered by strategic investors and certain managing partners at $25/share. Shares -3.2% premarket to $24.77, now off more than 11% since the post-earnings pop on Monday morning. (PR) [Financials, On the Move] Comment!
QC #256, April 12, 2013 [View instapost]
Stability Of The European Union (19) April 18, 2013 To [View instapost]
http://bloom.bg/13yjEo1
Why I Remain Bearish Despite The Cyclical Bull Rally [View article]
Really excellent article. Truer words could not be spoken:
"The reason we are at all time highs on stocks has to do with the fact that companies have cut costs -- mainly labor costs -- and the government has subsidized GDP through massive fiscal stimulus that has driven the debt to GDP ratio to a level in excess of 100%. This fiscal policy has reached a point where it is no longer sustainable, yet without massive fiscal stimulus GDP will contract."
When the market returns to a focus on fundamentals -- instead of BB sugar highs -- capital devastation is likely to be severe. I am staying very cash heavy (not just in USDs) for the time being, while playing short term trades. Although I will say, that I never underestimate the ability of Central Banks around the world to keep the current music playing - for a very long time.
Thank you for sharing your well documented strategy.
mj
QC #256, April 12, 2013 [View instapost]
QC #256, April 12, 2013 [View instapost]
mj
QC #256, April 12, 2013 [View instapost]
QC #256, April 12, 2013 [View instapost]
Economic Straight Talk summarized and paraphrased how El-Erian currently sees things:
o today the majority of 'investor recommendations' are based on a view that 'stocks are cheaper than something else', not on 'fundamentals' - and that is "potentially very dangerous";
o Central Banks are forced to 'stay on their current trajectory' (by that I assume he means 'continued quantitative easing') and continue to 'work at' boosting confidence;
o eventually all 'waves break', and the question is does a surfer (read 'investor') 'walk off the board' or 'crash'. Like any surfer, how each investor is 'positioned' will determine the extent of whether he/she 'suffers or not';
o there is more than 'one wave' out there beyond the wave created by the Central Banks that the Central Banks can't 'reach'. Some of these, which include selected currencies and bonds, currently have 'genuine growth potential';
o past 'models' (I assume he means 'economic models') are broken, and new 'models' must be built;
o the financial markets cannot disconnect from fundamentals forever, and in the end the financial markets will revert to the 'fundamentals' - with the result being severe capital devastation;
o today the world is very binary, meaning it will either end well or very badly, without middle ground. Keeping options open and maintaining liquidity are the keys to surviving and profiting in a world of likely 'extreme outcomes'; and,
o investors participating in today's financial markets need to mitigate risk pursuant to 'cost effective tail hedging'. Unhedged investors will pay a very high price for assuming 'excessive risk' when the financial markets revert to 'the fundamentals'.
http://bit.ly/YzLgdw
QC #256, April 12, 2013 [View instapost]
http://wapo.st/169NByw
QC #256, April 12, 2013 [View instapost]
I don't trade Tesla -- but these 2 links may be of help in answering your question. The ability to trade options may differ during trading "pauses" when "the trading pause must be observed by all other markets, including stock, options and single-stock future markets that trade the stock" : http://bit.ly/ZvQOB4 -- VERSUS -- during a longer trading suspension: http://1.usa.gov/15gQMVx
mj
QC #256, April 12, 2013 [View instapost]