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Mercy Jimenez

Mercy Jimenez
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  • Stability Of The European Union June 2, 2014 To ??? [View instapost]
    Got it DG -- but the so called forecasts could easily be totally off. We have seen it before.
    Thx,
    mj
    Sep 30 07:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stability Of The European Union June 2, 2014 To ??? [View instapost]
    Forecasters are sometimes off, DG, so you may indeed be right. Guess we'll have to keep an eye on Brent at a 2-year low http://bloom.bg/1wVihO3; US liquid petroleum (oil and gas) production at an all time high; and
    "a tanker ship full of crude oil on its way to South Korea from Alaska -- the first oil export from Alaska in a decade -- a sign that domestic demand for the state's crude is drying up as production rises in the continental U.S." http://bit.ly/1wVij8R.
    mj
    Sep 30 03:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator August 16, 2014 To September 14, 2014 [View instapost]
    Started a position in (PLX). I like their production capabilities and their latest executive appointment -- new CEO formerly with (TEVA). http://bit.ly/1wV4ozm
    mj
    Sep 30 02:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stability Of The European Union June 2, 2014 To ??? [View instapost]
    "The annual rate of inflation in the eurozone fell further below the European Central Bank's target in September, and to its lowest level since October 2009.

    The decline is a setback to the ECB which, earlier this month, launched a series of measures designed to boost growth and start to move the inflation rate back toward its goal of just below 2.0%..."http://on.wsj.com/1nGdQ9Y
    An fx "expert" this am was opining that the USD and the EURO may reach parity within the next couple of years if current trends persist.!
    mj
    Sep 30 02:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    Agree SH -- watching and waiting. It's taking some discipline not to jump on (SLW) below $20 and (GG) below $23!!
    mj
    Sep 30 01:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    Hi James,
    I do not currently have a long position in (F), but started posting my long positions back when it was an ugly duckling @ $9+ pps. With the quick price run-up and Mullaly's departure I booked gains, but plan to load back up if the pps and (as you note) the macro environment synch up for opportunity.

    IMHO US based multinationals are likely going to have a tough couple of years ahead. The USD may stay strong while the EURO may have to tough it out with a Draghi QE going forward. Inflation appears less of an immediate threat than deflation does -- so I am not currently fearing rising rates within the next 12 months. And if Germany continues to tighten its purse strings -- I think the EU may face another recession.

    FWIW this year I have been far more active with the long term diversification and high yields offered up by select ETFs and CEFs than with large individual share positions -- but (F) remains on my active watchlist. Most of my quick scalps are with companies I like -- just in case the pps turns against me and I have to hold longer than "planned."
    mj
    Sep 30 01:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    I'm out @ $14.88.
    Disclosure: I am both an investor and a trader and often buy trading blocs of quality stocks I like for the long-term. I buy a large bloc to quickly scalp a nice gain, but only post when I have the time to do so close to real time e.g. like I just did on (F).
    mj
    Sep 30 11:36 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    Added trading bloc of (F) @14.67.
    mj
    Sep 30 10:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    WT and Joseph thanks for your perspectives. FYI -- the one PIMCO fund that attracted my attention today was (PML). Started a position @$11.59. My muni holdings in (HYD), (IIM), and (VKQ) are all holding up nicely during these market gyrations while the high yield tax exempt monthly distributions keep flowing. The lack of new muni supply vs. demand is certainly helping as well as the fact that muni defaults have hit the lowest level since 2009. http://bloom.bg/1rnW7ox

    (PML) checks off most of my boxes, although it does have some leverage. Its discount to NAV rose to -4.3% on Friday which is much higher than its 52-week average. Here's a partial summary on the fund, although this SA article is from last year. http://seekingalpha.co...

    BTW -- re: interest rate forecasts -- Jim Bianco's interview today with Bloomberg was very good. I am definitely in his camp which expects that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates until 2016 as long as inflation stays tame. http://bloom.bg/1rnW9g9
    mj
    Sep 29 03:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    Joseph, more luck than smarts I'm sure. Did I ever tell you about my "smart" losses on BTU? LOL Looking forward to your take on drillers and metals.
    mj
    Sep 29 01:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gross Out At PIMCO: What Next For PIMCO CEFs? [View article]
    Completely agree with your assessment, Left Banker, re: longer term prospects for (PCI) and (PDI). Many thanks for your update.
    mj
    Sep 29 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stability Of The European Union June 2, 2014 To ??? [View instapost]
    Is Merkel's refusal to open her purse-strings a bargaining tactic or tipping point for another EU recession?

    The stated "political, cultural and economic reasons for the refusal [include]:

    1) Germany is determined to set an example by meeting its fiscal targets and running the first balanced federal budget since 1969 with no borrowing...

    2) Germany has less fiscal space than outsiders understand because it has an aging, shrinking population...

    3) The euro zone's economic problem is largely one of supply rather than demand. Structural reforms of labor markets, legal systems, pensions and welfare to improve competitiveness are the only way to achieve a sustainable recovery..." http://bit.ly/1ruWFYm
    mj
    Sep 28 09:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    Good article, LT, thanks for sharing. Here's the comment I posted there: http://seekingalpha.co...
    mj
    Sep 27 12:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross PIMCO Exit Creates Unprecedented Value In CEFs [View article]
    Chancer,
    You may be right that the SEC investigation accelerated his departure. But, the WSJ is reporting today that:

    "Weeks before he quit Friday, the man who brought bond investing to the masses sent a scornful email to other top executives ... [the] email included a 10-point outline of what he saw as major problems at the Newport Beach, Calif., firm, blaming specific executives, according to a person familiar with the situation." http://on.wsj.com/1rr5hOs

    After the email some of those executives threatened to quit well before the SEC announcement and the Exec Committee had started preparing to edge him out -- Gross just decided to beat them to the punch. I agree that some funds will pose potential opportunity short-term, but I personally would buy in faster to the opportunity of discounted NAVs if I knew what the 10-point critique included in substance. I generally invest in CEFs (as opposed to trading them) and I am not yet feeling comfortable with where some of these CEFs may go directionally after the Gross departure.

    For example, I held (PCI) for some time and posted liquidation of my large position last month @ $23.32 for some fundamental reasons. http://seekingalpha.co... Since then the shares had already dropped 4% as of close Thursday before the Gross departure announcement.

    I generally invest in CEFs (as opposed to trading them) and I am not yet feeling comfortable with where some of these CEFs are going directionally after the Gross departure. I would also add IMHO that Gross may "refine" his strategy at Janus to distinguish it from the place he left behind on bad terms. It's harder for me to imagine, as the author asserts, that "Gross will buy the same strategies employed at PIMCO" [at Janus.] Gross after all was quoted as saying to insiders ""I've made you all rich…See how you do without me ..." Janus went up 43% on Friday because expectations are (rightly or wrongly) that hundreds of billions will follow Gross out the door. I think he is more likely to surface at Janus a new elegant interpretation of where the market is going so those who follow him feel they are getting some point of differentiation from the PIMCO they may potentially leave behind.
    mj
    Sep 27 12:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    Yes, ungawah, Bloomberg reported that more unnamed senior people threatened to quit if Gross did not leave with his "erratic" behavior. The big "so what" of all this IMHO is a) potential liquidations at PIMCO funds and b) potential impact on Treasuries and bonds with the biggest bond bull changing lanes.
    mj
    Sep 26 10:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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