ValueInvst

China Mobile: Looks Like Value, Smells Like Growth

I didnt' have enough time to get into the "E" of the P/E ratio. The basic premise is that earnings might be substantially depressed as new competitors take market share through asymetric regulation and a weaker TD is CHL-funded and adoption is low. In the end, CHL will need to build on a better 3G technology. Which means that growth in earnings might fall short of exectations, which translates into a more fair value at current levels. My $70 price is only suggesting that if today's prices are fair for CHL, and growth is modest, then the stock should hit my cost in hopefully 2 yrs. So at current levels it is a better buy, but a long term hold. I have not factored in China volatility, but that's the simple math. This is a long term hold for me, so I am not too worried, but don't expect a huge surge in the stock b/c the older dynamics of a simple lower cell phone penetration is not enough. I did the same analysis you did five months ago.