user278494

Two Ways to Invest in Ukraine

I agree with you.Many smart portfolio investors(having quite a substantial investing experience in Russia and in the CIS) still have positions in the Ukraine. Though they prefer mostly utilities(looking very cheap) and agricultural companies(Astarta,Mria... Khleboproduct).


On Sep 13 12:03 PM Duff Kovacs wrote:

> Mary - I am very pleased to see someone like you blogging investment
> opportunities in Ukraine on Yahoo! I am the head of Sales for KBC
> Securities Ukraine and based in Kyiv. KBC is a Belgian based investment
> bank with operations throughout CEE. I have lived in Kyiv for 2 years
> now and seen the boom (back half of 2007) and the bust (crisis that
> began in 2008 and, hopefully, ending now). For exposure to the telecom
> market in Ukraine you can certainly buy Russian companies MTS (MBT:seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> which runs one of the largest cell phone networks in the country
> as well as Vimpelkom (VIP:seekingalpha.com/symbo...) which
> owns a large stake in main cell provider Kyivstar (and battling with
> its norwegian company Kyivstar partner over ownership/money). Also,
> Turkcell (TKC:seekingalpha.com/symbo...) owns Ukraine discount
> mobile brand 'Life :)' and is a rumored candidate to buy the government's
> large stake in landline monopoly Ukrtelekom (UTLM UK) which will
> give Turkcell large market share in Ukrainian telecom going forward.
>
>
> Ukraine is a heavy industrial economy with mining and metals and
> the steel industry representing about 40% of GDP. After that it's
> agriculture and heavy machinery and engineering as the main industries
> - so basically the economy has the most leverage to steel and agricultural
> commodities....and the crisis has smacked this economy very hard
> - but the economy now appears to be turning the corner with GDP growth
> expected in 2010 after a massive ~20% contraction in 2009. In 2007
> the local PFTS index was one of the best performing in the globe
> with ~130% gain...and then among the worst performing in 2008! After
> peaking at the 1200 level in Jan 2008, the PFTS index fell all the
> way to the 200 level, but since march has rebounded to the ~400 level.....so
> there is still a triple from here to get back to the pre-crisis days.
>
>
> There are about 20 investable equities/stocks of ukrainian companies
> listed on the local Ukrainian stock exchange (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> sister exchange to the Russian RTS exchange, which is has this year
> replaced the PFTS to be the main securities exchange. While there
> are many listed securities, there are only about 20 that trade with
> at least US$100k per day of volume/liquidity up to US$1M per day.
> The most liquid are steels like Azovstal (bberg: AZST UK) and Enakievo
> (ENMZ UK); banks like Raffeissen Aval (BAVL UK) and Unicredit/Ukrsotsbank
> (USCB UK); utilities like Donbasenergo (DOEN UK), Centerenergo (CEEN
> UK), Ukrnafta (UNAF UK) and Ukrtelekom (UTLM UK); heavy engineering
> companies like Motor Sich (MSICH UK) and Sumy Frunze (SMASH UK).
>
>
> There are more liquid and more transparent companies listed on London,
> Warsaw and Frankfurt. Ferrexpo is a large iron ore producer (FXPO
> LN), Kernel (KER PW) is a vegetable oil producer on Warsaw and Astarta
> (AST PW) is a large sugar producer - more and more ukrainian companies
> will be listing on these western exchanges when the IPO market returns,
> hopefully in 2010.
>
> Ukraine is a 'frontier market' with huge potential to grow as the
> world emerges from the financial crisis. Investors with stronger
> risk appetite can look at the local stock exchange to get involved
> with companies before they move onto the larger, western exchanges.

Gazprom's Recent Deals Should Be a Red Flag to the Rest of Europe

Do you believe these Turkish guys on the contract price of $350 per th.cub.m. for Azerbaidzhan? I guess Gazprom is not so stupid to think the oil (and gas ) market will recover immediately(even in 2010). Highly likely they negotiated a specific price formula for gas supplies which suggests the purchase price will be $350 only when the oil is traded even not at $70 per barrel but at much higher levels.

Heavy Reliance on Energy Depresses Russian ETF

What do you mean by "Putin's 40 Billion stock holdings "? Where did you take this information?


On Nov 22 08:46 AM khwender wrote:

> I wonder what Putin's 40 Billion stock holdings are worth now? I
> guess it really doesn't matter because he stole every share. Our
> government needs to understand that the Russian government is a criminal
> organization, They have plan for America and it isn't pretty.

Fundamental Valuation in Emerging Markets

It seems to me you use wrong data on Russia.Your previous post is dated 2 September, 2008. Since then things have changed dramatically...

The End of the BRIC Trade

You are absolutely wrong on Russia.It seems to me your opinion is very superficial and is not grounded by any fundamental arguments. Nowadays Russia is much less dependent on commodities' exports to keep growing...And certainly you underestimate very vast (and underdeveloped)Russian domestic market and restructuring prospects for some Russian industries...Don't concentrate on politics (and Putin) only,guys! let's have a broader view!