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Know Nothing and Do Nothing

Know Nothing and Do Nothing
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  • Brief China Update [View article]
    All tourist spots will be full of visitors. It is a big spending week for the nation. Workers going back to their villages (transportation); workers bring back gifts for their families (consumer spending); restaurants get more patronage; and so on and so forth. It is like a mini-Christmas season here in early October.
    Although no production in the factories, but it is the time for the cleaning and repairs. Usually from the 8th day to the 10th day are new start up days. Actually the nation is having a 10 days holiday. Another big holiday will be around the Chinese New Year. Who said that Chinese just work but no vacation?
    Sep 27, 2013. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China: Distorted And Flexible [View article]
    It is better to say that China is under a big political cycle every 300 years that has been demonstrated for 5000 years.
    Let us start with the most recent dynasties.
    (1) Tang Dynasty (618 to 907). That was the time when Japan sent scholars and monks to learn the Chinese culture.
    (2) Sung Dynasty (961 to 1279). That was the time when poems and prose were popular. Five small kingdoms evolved from 907 to 961.
    (3) Yuan Dynasty (1279 to 1368). That was the time of Genghis Khan that rules from Asia to Europe. It was short-life in China, but had a much longer history as the Mongolia Empire.
    (4) Ming Dynasty (1368 to 1644). That is the time that Zheng Wo had fleets traveled to South East Asia and reached East Africa.
    (5) Ching Dynasty (1644 to 1911). That is the time that people is most familiar with. Foreign Countries was trying to sub-divide China.
    (6) The New Dynasty (from 1911 to 2111?). I call it a new Cycle, because Dr. Sun, Yat-Sien overturned the Ching Dynasty and established many new modern systems. We have the Japanese Invasion War, the Interior War.....Anyway with Taiwan and Mainland as two governing entities but all said that it is one China.
    This is a clear indication that China has a big change every 300 years.
    It is also true that each Dynasty was growing in the first 100 years, enjoying the prosperous next 100 years, and decaying in the next 100 years until revolution came and change for another new Dynasty.
    Let us hope that we(and our descendant) can enjoy the next 100 prosperous years before the decay cycle comes in.
    Jul 23, 2013. 05:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China: Distorted And Flexible [View article]
    The saving habit of Chinese will be better than the over spending habit of Americans. Americans over extend their credits and use the credit cards too much. They spend more than they is the is individual. How can a country survive for the long run?
    American soldiers are trained for wars. When it is peace, they just sit down to read the mails from home or to wait for GI paychecks.
    Chinese Liberation Army builds roads when there is no war. Xinjiang used to be deserts of sand and wind. Chinese armies built roads across this province, planted cotton fields, installed wind-mills. If you take a "Silk-road" vacation and pass the desert before reaching the big city of Urumqi, you will see cotton fields after cotton fields, wind-mills and wind-mills. The uniformed armies are still working day after day for the benefits of their country. This is a supply of cheap but willing labors. Can other countries match this?
    Granted that China has lots of problems and not in the democratic and liberal and open system as the West, but the country is helping the citizens. They have no need to worry about the next election and the voters. Whoever is capable and effcient will be the leader. We saw this in the past four generations......Mao.....
    We have to spend more time to study the history and culture of China before we can put the western standard to judge and evaluate China.
    Jul 21, 2013. 11:27 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM's $2 Billion Buyback Raises Floors And Busts Ceilings [View article]
    Your consistency in holding your faith on SIRI really worth my praise. Your right on the track guesstimating on the price model is also worth the admiration too. Keep up with your expertise write-ups no matter SIRI prices are up or down to give us LONGs a confirmed blessing.
    Good articles always. Thanks.
    Jul 12, 2013. 04:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems (DDD) shareholders signed off on increasing the company's share authorization to 220M from 120M at its annual meeting. The 3D printer maker says the increase restores its flexibility to use stock "for appropriate corporate purposes." Do those purposes include another split and/or acquisitions? [View news story]
    At the beginning, Microsoft also tried to buy up small companies to build up himself into a big company. Of course there may be some good buys and some bad buys. Hope DDD is like Microsoft but not like US government.
    May 21, 2013. 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Apple? Google? What? [View article]
    I recalled that the stock in about 6 years ago. It moved very quickly at $2 to $4 and then to $8. I recalled that they have booths promoting their services at many entrances of shopping malls. When there are lots of activities and promotions, the stock can move very quick again. I am long waiting for that time comes.
    May 17, 2013. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty's Plans For Sirius XM Take Another Step Forward [View article]
    If you believe in Channel, the next stop is 3.6 to 3.8 for SIRI.
    Channels are two lines drawn for the upper limits and the lower limits that the prices touches in the recent few months.
    I got two nice parallel lines: the upper line is a straight line by joining three point of $3.23 at February 1, 2013 and $3.16 at January 18, 2013 and $2.89 at October 17, 2012 together; the lower line by joining the points at $3.0 at April 17, 2013 and $2.35 at September 14, 2012.
    These two parallel lines enclose all the prices of SIRI in the past 8 months.
    By extending the two parallel lines, you will see that SIRI is soon reaching the upper limit of 3.6 to 3.8
    I hope it does because I am long for SIRI. Good luck.
    (Data from Yahoo, prices as y-axis ,date as x-axis)
    May 6, 2013. 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Why The Shares Are Jumping [View article]
    As they always said that there are million reasons for the insiders to sell, but there is only one reason for them to buy. Good article. I am long for SIRI always.
    May 5, 2013. 08:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Reaches $3.39; Time To Take Profits? [View article]
    Your predictions were right all the time. Superb! Please keep it up. With your educated guesstimates is better than by my own estimation.
    May 2, 2013. 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold ETP flows had their weakest month on record, according to Barclays, causing net fund ownership of the metal to fall to its lowest level since Dec. 2008. New short positions are at their highest since July 1999. Net outflows between Feb. 20-25 averaged more than 10M tons/day, with the bulk coming out of the GLD which lost 58M tons for February. [View news story]
    Buy some gold coins when the price is low and save it. Over a long period of time, this savings is much better than your saving accounts or IRA accounts.
    A prudent investor should hold 1/10th of his equity in real gold. Now is the time to pick up some.
    Mar 2, 2013. 05:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Record Outflows From The SPDR Gold ETF Cause For Concern? [View article]
    If we are talking about long term, nothing is better than to hold physical gold.
    My advice is hold at least 10% of the equities in physical gold all the time. Gold coins should be a convenient way to store.
    Feb 28, 2013. 10:34 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still Raining In Japan [View article]
    China encourages its citizen to save gold pieces and silver pieces.
    Japan encourages its citizen to buy Japanese common stocks and bonds. Japanese are holding the bag for the government. Most of their savings are under the advice of their brokers. They just become more and more dependent on the government and the social securities.
    I see that the rains are not slowing down. Abe's venturesome is like drinking poisoned wine to cure the thirst.
    Feb 4, 2013. 01:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan's Inflationistas - Getting Cold Feet? [View article]
    Japan grew so fast after the WWII because she was limited by the Allies (with US as the supervisor) to build up the arms again. Without army expenses, the country can save a lot and rebuild very fast.
    The Korean War and the Vietnam War were giving a lot of job opportunities to Japan(supplying goods and daily necessities, entertainment, ....... For the GIs). That is why Japan is growing so fast. She does not learn a lesson and wants to go back to the military state again. It is obvious a backward driving to me.
    Jan 18, 2013. 08:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan's Inflationistas - Getting Cold Feet? [View article]
    Japan is not learning from USA. President Johnson claimed "Gun and Butter" means one can fight the
    Vietnam War and also create a plush society. He thinks that it is helping each other.
    After a few years of burning the US dollars, he then said that he will not seek for the next term presidency but right away he will start withdraw soldiers from the Vietnam War. It is a costly lesson for USA.
    President Ronald Reagan claimed a "Star War" and spent lots of money in Star War preparation. Russia was afraid to be behind and also put in more money into Star War preparation. Finally, both drained out a lot of money and Russia found out that she was almost bankrupt and claimed to give up the competition of Star War and discussed nuclear disarmament with USA.
    Spending money on War will not make a country richer. It will make the country poorer. ABE, the new Japanese minister, is thinking of increasing more money on ammunition and depreciating the Japanese Yen to make Japanese goods competitive. The after-effect of depreciating the Yen is fully discussed in this article and the comments. But increasing ammunition expenditure while the country is in need of economic improvement is going a reverse route. (see the big countries results of USA and Russia).
    People should learn that War and Prosperity is not complementary, but supplementary.
    Jan 17, 2013. 10:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Japanese Yen Trade Is Exporting Inflation To China [View article]
    If I am wealthy as the big manipulators years back who played with the British pounds, I would sell lots of Japanese yen now and buy it back later. The Yen is purposely devalued by the new prime minister. His act will not disturb China but would disturb EU and USA.
    Jan 14, 2013. 12:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment