RJMoran

How the Federal Government will Lose in 2009

You're absolutely right to suggest that these two events WILL occur...My question is over what time frame...?
It isn't so much 'treasonous to bet against Big Brother' as it is a variation on 'The market can stay illogical longer than you can stay solvent'! With smoke, mirrors, 'staging distractions' (look over here while we do something over there), the government can keep 'tinkering' with their toolbox for quite some time. The banks KNOW a wave of defaults is headed their way which is why they cower under some flimsy TARP (It's kind of like the calm before the tsunami when the tide comes in, goes WAY out and there is a calm, THEN the big wave comes ashore! "That's odd how the tide went out so far honey, oh well, put some sunblock on me will ya?!")
It's the timing we're all interested in since currency moves and treasury prices are 'long waves' (once in motion in a certain direction, it keeps going in said direction for a bit) I'd love to know have a better sense of when the unwind will take hold since it will be a long one...
To mix metaphors, the Coyote has long since walked off the cliff but to him, he is still on firm ground. Eventually he'll look down and/or try to run for the other side of the canyon. Positioning before the downdraft gets one the most bang of course. The currency strengthening and devaluing come in long waves but I'm not so sure how fast Treasuries will re-price along the way here?