RJMoran

What Unemployment Numbers Can We Expect?

The 'average work week' is down to it's lowest level ever at 33 hours. I know from experience that many people just give up looking for work and couldn't therefore be counted in any unemployment numbers. I wouldn't be surprised to find an accurate unemployment count to be closer to 20% than 10%. Who are we kidding!?

Economic News, And Outlook, Continues Mixed

@User353732
I hope others appreciate the quality of your comments as much as I do!

GDP: Here's a More Realistic Look

@User 353732:
...WELL SAID!

This chart, which maps world GDP growth from 1980 through 2015 (using IMF's predictions), leaves you wondering what happens if we don't get that big bounce. Which may be why the Cleveland Fed warns that risks to the outlook "still remain more heavily weighted toward the downside than the upside."

I'm highly skeptical of the 'intense V' shape! Even if you just take the 2000 recession with it's flattened out recovery, add in credit contraction and massive debt overhang and you wouldn't get anything nearly so rapid an upward move. I just don't see their 'projection' out to even 2011 being even close... I can draw pretty lines too! Nice try though IMF!

Scratch That: Rosenberg Doesn't See a Green Shoot

<<<"There are more than 800,000-900,000 vacant residential housing in the US, 'not a backdrop for anything but lower home prices'.">>>
HUH?
I've been reading that there are an estimated 18.9MILLION vacant homes in America today... Both figures can't be right!?

Americans Are Saving Like There's No Tomorrow

I only spend money on food! No restaurants, movies, extraneous driving,NO shopping of any kind, only food and basic bills... I'm sure I'm not the only one living this way!

After Peak Finance: Larry Summers' Bubble

...and the Pound and Euro just levitate like nothing is wrong!

After Peak Finance: Larry Summers' Bubble

Finance in the UK, traditionally 6% of the economy, has, in recent years risen to 30% of the entire economy. Not to mention the 'feeder economies dependent on a healthy 'finance' sector like high end restaurants, the art market, high end real estate (both city AND desirable countryside, retail, toys: boats,planes,airline tickets) as well as real estate in countries like France, Spain, Italy, etc benefiting from increased British purchases of properties and assets.
A "structural contraction" would seem inevitable with RBS/HBOS type consolidations not to mention MANY percentage points of real industry shrinkage and yet everyone in the UK seems to be 'whistling past the graveyard' hoping 'recovery' will make it all better! As the grumpy gnome Robert Reich has said: "It ain't coming back"! (don't think he said "ain't"/but something close enough)

Doubling down: Figures from the top seven U.S. commercial banks show they went easy on increasing loan-loss reserves in the quarter, betting on the economic recovery. "If they’re wrong, and borrowers don’t pull out of a tailspin, bankers and their investors will take a beating."

"sentient economist"!? Good one. IS there such a creature?
I believe a MASSIVE one time 'debt>equity swap' has to occur across the country to avoid the long, slow slog-type recovery CausIn speaks of... Banks will just have to 'eat it.' We all have been!
"America will do the right thing, once all other alternatives have been exhausted!" (not sure who said it but it's brilliant and precient)

In Economic No Man's Land

What do we think the knock on affect of will be when 'unemployment benefits' end?! LESS spending. NO new saving (ya can't save what ya'll are not bringing in) People start eating their savings! Accelerated foreclosures. What have I missed?!

"The big impact starts to hit from about now onwards... I still hold out hope it will be a V-shaped recovery. It might not be the most likely scenario but it is not as unlikely as many people think." - Christina Romer, chairman of the U.S. president's council of economic advisers, on stimulus package

herbert hoover, PRICELESS!

"The big impact starts to hit from about now onwards... I still hold out hope it will be a V-shaped recovery. It might not be the most likely scenario but it is not as unlikely as many people think." - Christina Romer, chairman of the U.S. president's council of economic advisers, on stimulus package

...I want some of what Christina Romer is smoking!

There Is More to Why Canada's Banks Are Better

While there is a painful Canadian trait I call "Pat ourselves on the back-itis", the fact is that borrowing there is extremely difficult and VERY costly! The 'spread' and their conservative, restrictive banking habits may be good for their bottom line but it chokes off commerce, growth, etc! "...Difficult for small borrowers" is being overly polite.

The Bernanke Conundrum

... Without being too verbose about it, I have to agree with the 'truth' embedded in David White's response: namely, "... By addressing the problem at the source, the government would lessen the possibility of extraneous factors wrecking havoc with it's plans..."
The self reinforcing loop of depreciating home values throwing more homes onto the market either by job loss or 'underwater mortgage' leading to more homes on the market MUST be stopped if there is any hope of economic stabilization and/or future growth...
A modest uptick in the cost of a mortgage is itself a house price depreciator but I feel this is much less a problem than a deflationary loop that almost guarantees an overshoot to the downside. There may be a 'market clearing point' where affordability, mortgage rates and price intersect but crashing through the floor will, I fear will NOT be good for the economy or the citizenry...
Is this national 'reset' we are all going through approaching 'dangerous' or am I just being fretful?

Talk about a budget problem. If California rejects three budget balancing measures next week, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger may be forced to release 40,000 prisoners or fire 51,000 teachers.

Would anyone even notice 40,000 more ex-prisoners in a state with a population of over 36.7Million!? Doubtful!