Peter Way Associates is the only known provider of the price range forecasts of widely-held, actively traded stocks derived from the hedging activities of market-making [MM] firms as they balance big-$-fund sellers and buyers in large block trades. The price ranges offer explicit downside exposure forecasts not commonly found in publicly published investment analyses.
This is all forward-looking data, based on what the MMs will pay for protection against coming unwanted price change while temporarily committed firm capital is exposed to market risks. It is available by modest subscription cost at blockdesk.com.
The behavioral analysis involved has been performed daily since Y2K, now on over 3,000 stocks, ETFs, and market indexes. That has built an actuarial history of how market prices have subsequently behaved following several million price range forecasts, issue by issue.
That data provides a qualitative backdrop to current forecasts in terms of odds of profitable positions, size of prospective gains, credibility of forecasts, and worst-case price drawdown exposure experiences.
Peter F. Way is a veteran Chartered Financial Analyst, having taken and passed the CFA Institute’s required 3 examinations in the first years they were given, 40+ years ago.
Armed with BS in Economics from the Wharton School and an MBA degree from Harvard Business School, he has managed staffs of dozens of Investment Researchers and Quantitative Analysts for the nation’s largest bank, arbitraged index options for NYSE Specialists, and managed portfolios of hundred-million-dollar equity investments for Fortune 100 corporate pension funds and non-profit endowments.
He has been elected President of professional Investment Analyst Societies in San Diego and New York City and has served on the editorial boards of the Financial Analysts Journal and the CFA Digest. He has spoken at numerous schools and professional meetings.
Always analysing and crunching numbers, I enjoy focusing on the trade, using a variety of tools to improve a position's profit potential.
I use each tool for a specialized purpose: options in fast moving markets to boost profit potential while limiting risk; leveraged ETFs in slower moving markets to boost profit without the cost erosion of options; relative value trading between two or more stocks to take advantage of price disparities and lock-in value; and leverage through the safe use of margin to boost dividend yield into the high single digits and often the low double digits for that all-important revenue stream.
I'm an independent stock trader specializing in volatility products. I am the founder of Trading Volatility which provides financial data services focusing on volatility derivatives and capital structure arbitrage.
My educational background includes a B.S. in Electrical Engineering from the University of Maryland and an M.B.A. from the University of Oregon.
I am a graduate student in biostatistics at Emory University in Atlanta, GA, and an individual investor. While my investments are mostly in low-cost index funds, I enjoy analyzing stock market trends and trying to find ways to beat the market.
Right now I'm convinced that the best way to beat the market is to pair a leveraged S&P 500 ETF (e.g. UPRO) with a total bond fund (e.g. BND). With one-third allocated to UPRO and two-thirds to BND, you get a portfolio with beta approximately 1 (depending on the current correlation between stocks and bonds) and alpha two-thirds that of BND's alpha. The result is a portfolio that sort of mimics SPY, but with an extra couple percentage points added on each year.
I favor computational investment methods over traditional fundamental or technical analysis, which require subjective analysis of earnings reports and visual assessments of price charts, respectively.
I've been investing for nearly 30 years. I've lost a lot of money. I've made a lot of money. The school of hard knocks is rough sometimes, but you never forget the lessons. These days, I trade mostly volatility and momentum strategies.
Janus Capital Group Inc. (JCG) is a global investment firm dedicated to delivering better outcomes for clients through a broad range of actively managed investment solutions, including fixed income, equity, alternative and multi-asset class strategies. It does so through a number of distinct investment platforms, including investment teams within Janus Capital Management LLC (Janus), as well as INTECH Investment Management LLC (INTECH) and Perkins Investment Management LLC (Perkins), in addition to a suite of exchange-traded products under the VelocityShares brand as well as global macro fixed income products under the Kapstream brand. Each team brings distinct asset class expertise, perspective, style-specific experience and a disciplined approach to risk. Investment strategies are offered through open-end funds domiciled in both the U.S. and offshore, as well as through separately managed accounts, collective investment trusts and exchange-traded products.
I am an early career scientific researcher who has taken a strong interest in investing, both for achieving my personal financial goals as well as serving as an alternative conduit where critical and logical thinking are rewarded. I write articles to share ideas, refine my own thinking and invite discussion from the astute readership of Seeking Alpha.
For a better Seeking Alpha experience on your phone, please consider viewing the website on your browser (request desktop site for full functionality) instead of through the Seeking Alpha app.
Within the academic field, I have a career total of 87 articles and 5 book chapters, 2,600 total citations and an h-index of 31 (metrics from Google Scholar).
Retired (as of June 1, 2016) Physical Chemistry Professor deluded into thinking that a spreadsheet and 24 years worth of historical data are sufficient to devise a winning trading strategy that focuses on volatility ETFs.
My first experience with investing was just prior to the dot com crash. I read up on momentum investing (how do buy) but not when to sell. You can guess how that turned out.
I began developing my current strategies in 2011, based primarily on my own ideas, available data, and self-taught expertise in programming Excel spreadsheets. The strategies have worked well enough for me to retire from my day job eight years ahead of original expectations.
Past: Analyst / Trader at Exis Capital hedge fund. Sales and Trading at Citigroup. Portfolio Manager: 25M AUM under managment, Sydney, Australia. Current: Privet Fund manager Specialize in Vix and Vix derivative trading, 3400% plus return since October 2011 Trading the Nostro account Consulting privet clients Publishing monthly reports and analysis
Check out my YouTube channel where I give investing tips and have conversations with my viewers about where I see the investment landscape going in the future. The channel name is Alex Pitti.
I write a few articles per week which highlight my best ideas. I answer all comments on my articles in the first 2 days after they are published.
It seems that my readers enjoy my articles on social media companies such as Twitter, Facebook, and Google. I also do interviews such as when I interviewed the head scientists at SeaWorld.
I like to take the contrarian position on stocks. I tend to write about the stocks I own more often then the ones I don't take a position in. I usually own 5-10 stocks.
Follow me if you enjoy reading about any of these stocks or like to hear an original opinion backed by facts which cuts through the BS that sometimes exists in the mainstream financial press.
Contrarian by nature, I try to know my weaknesses and challenge my convictions as often as possible. It is hard to have strong convictions in the current environment though and I will respect those that have them, but probably challenge them. I try to invest long term at least for my personal account.
The Sova Group is a private investment fund managed by Matt Brice. As principal of The Sova Group, Matt Brice has been managing investments since 2009. Prior to founding The Sova Group, from 2007 until 2009 he worked as an associate attorney in the Mergers and Acquisitions group of Debevoise & Plimpton LLP, an international law firm based in New York City. Mr. Brice holds a B.A. in Philosophy from Brigham Young University and received his law degree from Columbia Law School.
Thomas Bachrach, CFA is the founder and principal of PFH Capital, a single family office and financial consultancy. He received his BA in Economics from Cornell University in 2005 and became a CFA charterholder in 2014. He resides in the Philadelphia area with his wife and two young girls.
Michael Baglio, (anagrammatically, "HiloBeMagical"), is the founder of The ACIEM Foundation- providing Assistance to Children with Inborn Errors of Metabolism.
The ACIEM Foundation serves children with genetic errors whose life-saving treatments are under-covered by insurance and government assistance programs. We provide financial assistance to these families in need, so that each child affected with disorders of metabolism may have the specialized foods, formulas, and dietary supplements necessary for the best chance possible for normal development.
Since disorders of metabolism commonly last a lifetime, our mission is long-term in nature. Once the ACIEM Foundation commits to helping a child in need, we will do so for as long as the child needs us.
"We help the forgotten children."
After 8/28/16, I will be writing no more than 4 Instablogs per year. Those blogs will be published in March, June, September and December.
Those blogs will concentrate on matters relating to portfolio positioning.
I will be posting substantive comments to my last published Instablog.
I have not used, nor will I even contemplate using SA's Instablog service as free advertising to sell a subscription service.
I have never received any compensation for the posts published at my blog website or here at SeekingAlpha. I am simply passing on what I have learned as an investor over 4+ decades free of charge. In all of my 2000+ posts since early October 2008, the primary purpose was to provide a framework for rational and fact based investment decision making that will hopefully reduce the number of errors made. That goal has been accomplished for the very few investors who have some interest in receiving it.
My most basic investment strategy is to focus on income generating securities and then to invest the cash flow into more of the same, creating a compounding impact over a long period of time. I will invest in securities throughout the capital structure on a worldwide basis. I am now and have always been a cautious total return investor (income + capital appreciation). A focus on income generation simply means that income generation through interest or dividend payments is an important part of my total return objective. I am no longer in an asset accumulation mode. Capital preservation is more important than capital appreciation. Income generation is only one aspect of an objective evaluation of potential rewards balanced against potential risks. After several decades of "turtle" investing, which sometimes requires me to pull my head back into the shell and to cease foraging in stock land (e.g. 1999), I am now admittedly absurdly diversified due largely to one of my risk management techniques that limits my monetary exposure to the securities of a single company. My monetary exposure is largely dictated by a balancing of potential risks and rewards taking into consideration income generation and potential for capital appreciation. As a risk control trading technique and in furtherance of my capital preservation emphasis, I will frequently use the natural volatility of a security to gradually build up a position, selling the highest cost shares on price spikes and buying back those shares when the purchase is lower than my average cost per share usually by more than 5%. The general idea is to lower my average cost per share over time with tax efficient share dispositions, thereby increasing my dividend yield for the remaining shares. I have also been a practitioner of dynamic or tactical asset allocation that will be driven by my big picture views, including my Vix Asset Allocation Model, as well as my opinions about the relative risks and opportunities of various asset classes. I was born in 1951, and started to invest in stocks when I was 16. I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money for my adult life starting when I was a teenager. All of my brokerage accounts are cash accounts. I have never bought stock on margin. I have not added money to any of these accounts since 1984 and have used those accounts to fund my annual IRA contributions. I started my web site, Stocks & Politics, in October 2008 to do whatever I can to help individuals become better investors, which requires a lot of hard work and effort. After over 2000+ blogs, mostly long ones, I came to a realization that my time consuming and laborious efforts have been mostly futile and have been rewarded at best with faint praise. I will no longer be posting there. I would still emphasize that it is important for individuals to become as knowledgeable as possible before making any decision, with every individual taking full responsibility for their investment decisions and to prepare accordingly, which is what I try to do. The Twitter Generation will need IMO far greater investment skills than previous generations given what I now perceived about future U.S. economic conditions.
Investment analyst; 15 years industry experience with fixed income, equity and patent portfolios. Singapore based specializing in Asian equities. Active on the Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Singapore, London, New York, and Chicago exchanges.
PhD in Computational Physics. Developing new models for stock trading (focusing on long SVXY). Predicting future accurately enough for trading purposes is surprisingly difficult... :)
Contrarian investment philosophy. I am in particular interested in undervalued technology stocks with multiple x upside potential and limited downside risk.
I am currently long $MSFT, $LNVGY, $INTC, $CRAY, $VRNG, $OCAT, $F, $TLT, $ALU and $NOK. $NOK (and now $ALU) are still the largest position in my portfolio, although I sold 70% of my $NOK position since the Devices and Services deal with Microsoft was announced. $NOK/ALU, and $TLT are currently my largest individual stock/ETF positions.
I also swing trade inverse volatility (long $SVXY) depending on market trends. I do not touch $VIX or other direct volatility products under any circumstances.
Additional disclosure: My comments, Stocktalks, articles etc are not an endorsement to buy or sell securities. Investing in securities carries with it very high risks. The information contained within my articles and commentary is for informational purposes only and is subject to change at any time. Do your own due diligence and consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.
George Spritzer, CFA is a registered investment advisor at Southland Investments and specializes in managing closed-end funds for individuals.
George uses the following investment strategies:1) Opportunistic Closed-end fund investing: Buy CEFs at larger than normal discounts to NAV and sell them when the discounts narrow. 2) Exploit special situations: tender offers, fund terminations, fund activism, rights offerings etc.
Publisher of options newsletter TerrysTips.com since 2001.. Thirty years experience trading options virtually every day. including stint as seat holder and market maker on the C.B.O.E. MBA from Harvard Business School and DBA from Univ. of Virginia Darden School. Author of Making 36%: Duffer's Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year, In Good Years and Bad (4th revision - 2012) and Coffee Can Investing: A Better Idea Than Mutual Funds in an IRA or 401(K), 2014.
TerrysTips.com is a newsletter that carries out eight different option portfolios which many subscribers mirror on their own or through auto-trade at several brokers who make all the same trades in individual customer accounts. Each portfolio offers something different (bullish, neutral, or bearish),and different underlyings (GOOG, SPY, SVXY, and other individual companies).
In 2005, the S.E.C. brought an action against Terry Allen, claiming that he was managing money for people without being a registered investment advisor because of the auto-trade service offered by several brokers who placed trades in their customer accounts based on Terry’s Tips newsletter recommendations. A second complaint was for a single statement on his website that they believed was incorrect and therefore fraudulent.
Although two large law firms assured Dr. Allen that if he went to court on the first issue, he would win because there was a Supreme Court decision stating that investment newsletters are exempt from registration requirements - it would be a violation of their First Amendment rights. However, they estimated that his legal expenses would be greater than settling with the S.E.C. (and a year or two of his time tied up in court proceedings), and both firms recommended that he accept the settlement offer while not admitting any guilt.
The second issue (fraud) involved a single statement that was true when it was written but a couple of years later, option prices fell to 10-year lows, and it was no longer true. The S.E.C. argued that the statement was not removed from the website in a timely enough fashion.
For the past eight years since the settlement with the S.E.C., Dr. Allen has have been publishing the Terry’s Tips newsletter (and recommendations are executed in customer accounts at thinkorswim by TD Ameritrade through their Auto-Trade program), and the S.E.C. has not objected to any of his activities.
Options trader full-time, author, owner of www.kevinmobrien.com, a subscription-based trading service. Born in Chicago, IL. I trade many stocks in the tech, financial, and agricultural sectors. Trade daily with a 5 Technical Indicator Strategy I developed, the Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS). Also trade many debit spreads for weekly and earnings-based trades such as Strangles, the Reverse Iron Condor, the Neutral Calendar Spread and also hold long-term call and put options on undervalued stocks and ETF's.
If you are interested in subscribing to the website's Trading Forum, please visit us at www.kevinmobrien.com.
Favorite stocks to trade: CF, GOOG, AAPL, NFLX, BIDU, CMG, PCLN, RIMM, CSCO, IDCC, POT, MOS, MON, SNDK, APA, and many more.
I'm a big Chicago Bears and Blackhawks fan.
I am an individual investor currently swing trading volatility ETNs (XIV and VXX). I am developing strategies for timing trades and backtesting using excel.
Contango is my friend.
My handle on twitter is @ContangoMojo
I've got an MBA and work for a pharmaceutical research company, but have always had a passion for the financial markets. I'm always on the lookout for any "edge" that I can use to outperform the markets...a fool's errand many would say, but I guess I'm enough of a fool to believe that it might be possible.
My profession is in biomedical research. I have over 25 years experience investing and trading stocks, options, ETFs, mutual funds, and futures in most asset classes, including volatility. I have a long-standing interest in algorithmic trading strategies. Over the last several years, we have worked towards developing and in some cases deploying with real money the strategies we have developed.
Michael Hooper is a freelance writer and value investor. Hooper was previously business editor of The Topeka Capital-Journal for nearly 10 years, then worked four years as a trust officer. He has been a stock market investor since 1993.
Philstockworld.com is the fastest growing stock and option newsletter on the Web. "High Finance for Real People - Fun and Profits" is our motto and our Basic and Premium Chat Sessions offer readers a chance to speak to Phil live during the trading day as well as authors like Optrader, Sabrient, Income Trader and Trend Trader - who send out Alerts during the market sessions and discuss trade ideas live with Members.
We even have a new low-cost "Trend Watcher" Membership that lets readers view our chat sessions without directly participating a great solution for people who want to test-drive the site and profit from our experience! Trend Watchers get to view all of our Chat Archives, weekly Webinars - as well as the amazing PSW Wiki, which gives you Phil's recent opinions and trade ideas as well as technical and fundamental analysis of hundreds of stocks that we follow.
Philip R. Davis is a founder of Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com), a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders. Mr. Davis is a serial entrepreneur, having founded software company Accu-Title, a real estate title insurance software solution, and is also the President of the Delphi Consulting Corp., an M&A consulting firm that helps large and small companies obtain funding and close deals. He was also the founder of Accu-Search, a property data corporation that was sold to DataTrace in 2004 and Personality Plus, a precursor to eHarmony.com. Phil was a former editor of a UMass/Amherst humor magazine and it shows in his writing -- which is filled with colorful commentary along with very specific ideas on stock option purchases (Phil rarely holds actual stocks).
Visit: Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com)